2025 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krajcik | 13–1 | 1865.79 | 10.538 | +3.0 | +0.231 | 2 | 0 | 75.3% |
| Adam | 10–4 | 1880.31 | 10.462 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 1 | 3 | 74.7% |
| Miller | 9–5 | 1796.75 | 9.308 | -3.5 | -0.269 | 2 | 3 | 66.5% |
| Joe Shore | 9–5 | 1646.86 | 7.308 | +5.5 | +0.423 | 3 | 2 | 52.2% |
| Josh | 9–5 | 1589.47 | 6.846 | +10.0 | +0.769 | 3 | 1 | 48.9% |
| Big Hut | 7–7 | 1721.04 | 7.462 | +3.5 | +0.269 | 2 | 1 | 53.3% |
| Nevans | 7–7 | 1613.50 | 6.615 | +4.5 | +0.346 | 3 | 2 | 47.3% |
| Kev | 6–8 | 1713.84 | 8.308 | -14.0 | -1.077 | 1 | 5 | 59.3% |
| Horgan | 6–8 | 1571.49 | 6.769 | -1.5 | -0.115 | 1 | 2 | 48.4% |
| j-mart | 6–8 | 1474.27 | 5.385 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 38.5% |
| Niz | 6–8 | 1431.17 | 5.000 | +5.0 | +0.385 | 2 | 0 | 35.7% |
| Fischer | 4–10 | 1455.48 | 5.462 | 0.0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 39.0% |
| Demich | 3–11 | 1454.11 | 5.000 | -3.0 | -0.231 | 0 | 2 | 35.7% |
| Martin | 3–11 | 1392.10 | 3.538 | +2.5 | +0.192 | 3 | 2 | 25.3% |
All-play order
- Krajcik — 10.538 expected wins; 137–45–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 10.462 expected wins; 136–46–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 9.308 expected wins; 121–61–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 8.308 expected wins; 108–74–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 7.462 expected wins; 97–85–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Joe Shore — 7.308 expected wins; 95–87–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 6.846 expected wins; 89–93–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 6.769 expected wins; 88–94–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 6.615 expected wins; 86–96–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 5.462 expected wins; 71–111–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 5.385 expected wins; 70–112–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 5.000 expected wins; 65–117–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Niz — 5.000 expected wins; 65–117–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 3.538 expected wins; 46–136–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- MartinRank 7, 112.59 points, lost by 45.93. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- Big HutRank 10, 89.22 points, won by 4.94. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miller | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.46 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Kev | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.19 | -0.23 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.54 | -0.54 | -0.96 | -0.96 | -1.08 | -1.08 | -1.08 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.23 | -0.23 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 |
| Big Hut | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.27 |
| Adam | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Nevans | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.15 | -0.15 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.54 | +0.54 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Josh | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.23 | +0.58 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Martin | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.23 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.19 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.08 | -0.12 | +0.23 | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Niz | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Horgan | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | -0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.12 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Krajcik | 8–6 (+2.0) | Kev | 3–11 (-3.0) |
| Miller | Krajcik | 12–2 (+3.0) | Demich | 6–8 (-3.0) |
| Kev | Joe Shore | 11–3 (+5.0) | Kev | 6–8 (0.0) |
| Demich | Niz | 9–5 (+6.0) | j-mart | 3–11 (0.0) |
| Krajcik | Krajcik | 13–1 (0.0) | Demich | 8–6 (-5.0) |
| Big Hut | Krajcik | 11–3 (+4.0) | Demich | 4–10 (-3.0) |
| Adam | Martin | 12–2 (+2.0) | Big Hut | 8–6 (-2.0) |
| Nevans | Krajcik | 10–4 (+3.0) | Demich | 4–10 (-3.0) |
| Josh | Niz | 10–4 (+1.0) | Demich | 4–10 (-5.0) |
| Martin | Krajcik | 6–8 (+3.0) | Kev | 1–13 (-2.0) |
| Fischer | Krajcik | 8–6 (+4.0) | Kev | 2–12 (-2.0) |
| Joe Shore | Krajcik | 10–4 (+1.0) | Kev | 4–10 (-5.0) |
| Niz | Krajcik | 9–5 (+3.0) | Demich | 2–12 (-4.0) |
| Horgan | Joe Shore | 9–5 (+3.0) | Martin | 5–9 (-1.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +2.74 pts | 14 | Krajcik: +34.40 pts |
| Miller | -4.63 pts | 14 | Adam: +41.03 pts |
| Kev | +14.35 pts | 14 | Nevans: +67.54 pts |
| Demich | +11.78 pts | 14 | j-mart: +68.19 pts |
| Krajcik | -16.29 pts | 14 | Demich: -0.72 pts |
| Big Hut | -0.61 pts | 14 | Krajcik: +46.54 pts |
| Adam | +8.55 pts | 14 | Krajcik: +56.87 pts |
| Nevans | +1.16 pts | 14 | Adam: +45.55 pts |
| Josh | -7.07 pts | 14 | Miller: +28.04 pts |
| Martin | +4.80 pts | 14 | Big Hut: +74.74 pts |
| Fischer | +5.87 pts | 14 | Joe Shore: +68.40 pts |
| Joe Shore | -11.11 pts | 14 | Adam: +13.60 pts |
| Niz | -9.17 pts | 14 | Demich: +19.62 pts |
| Horgan | -0.37 pts | 14 | Nevans: +47.24 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 53.0% | 14 | 119.95 |
| Miller | 51.2% | 14 | 110.27 |
| Kev | 64.3% | 14 | 127.02 |
| Demich | 66.7% | 14 | 128.38 |
| Krajcik | 28.0% | 14 | 98.11 |
| Big Hut | 49.4% | 14 | 113.42 |
| Adam | 57.1% | 14 | 121.21 |
| Nevans | 50.0% | 14 | 116.20 |
| Josh | 39.9% | 14 | 107.97 |
| Martin | 51.2% | 14 | 121.44 |
| Fischer | 57.7% | 14 | 122.14 |
| Joe Shore | 40.5% | 14 | 105.78 |
| Niz | 41.1% | 14 | 107.63 |
| Horgan | 50.0% | 14 | 115.21 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.00 | None |
| Miller | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Kev | 1–3 | 4 | 25.0% | 2.18 | 0.06 |
| Demich | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 3.57 | None |
| Krajcik | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Big Hut | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 4.94 | None |
| Adam | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.06 | 1.00 |
| Nevans | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.96 | None |
| Josh | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.99 |
| Martin | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 2.18 |
| Fischer | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 4.99 | 1.96 |
| Joe Shore | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Niz | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.04 | None |
| Horgan | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 42.9% | 38.5% | +4.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Miller | 64.3% | 66.5% | -2.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Kev | 42.9% | 59.3% | -16.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Demich | 21.4% | 35.7% | -14.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 92.9% | 75.3% | +17.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Big Hut | 50.0% | 53.3% | -3.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 71.4% | 74.7% | -3.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Nevans | 50.0% | 47.3% | +2.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 64.3% | 48.9% | +15.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Martin | 21.4% | 25.3% | -3.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 28.6% | 39.0% | -10.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Joe Shore | 64.3% | 52.2% | +12.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Niz | 42.9% | 35.7% | +7.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 42.9% | 48.4% | -5.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 29.8 pp | 38.5% | 14 |
| Miller | 22.4 pp | 66.5% | 14 |
| Kev | 26.1 pp | 59.3% | 14 |
| Demich | 31.4 pp | 35.7% | 14 |
| Krajcik | 28.8 pp | 75.3% | 14 |
| Big Hut | 23.2 pp | 53.3% | 14 |
| Adam | 23.7 pp | 74.7% | 14 |
| Nevans | 32.9 pp | 47.3% | 14 |
| Josh | 23.4 pp | 48.9% | 14 |
| Martin | 20.0 pp | 25.3% | 14 |
| Fischer | 27.5 pp | 39.0% | 14 |
| Joe Shore | 33.0 pp | 52.2% | 14 |
| Niz | 28.3 pp | 35.7% | 14 |
| Horgan | 29.9 pp | 48.4% | 14 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Krajcik | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Miller | Adam | 0–1 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Kev | Miller | 0–1 | Martin | 2–0 |
| Demich | Krajcik | 0–2 | Niz | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Niz | 0–1 | Demich | 2–0 |
| Big Hut | Krajcik | 0–1 | Fischer | 2–0 |
| Adam | Krajcik | 0–1 | Niz | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Adam | 0–1 | Horgan | 2–0 |
| Josh | Miller | 0–1 | Niz | 2–0 |
| Martin | Kev | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Big Hut | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Joe Shore | Kev | 0–1 | Fischer | 1–0 |
| Niz | Josh | 0–2 | Krajcik | 1–0 |
| Horgan | Nevans | 0–2 | Adam | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
League-wide superlative suppressed because coverage is incomplete. Available team-week receipts remain listed.
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 183.64 | 1 | |
| Miller | 135.72 | 1 | |
| Kev | 185.20 | 6 | |
| Demich | 158.90 | 2 | |
| Krajcik | 161.18 | 0 | |
| Big Hut | 130.36 | 2 | |
| Adam | 160.50 | 1 | |
| Nevans | 136.70 | 1 | |
| Josh | 200.90 | 1 | |
| Martin | 104.14 | 2 | |
| Fischer | 98.98 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | 192.59 | 0 | |
| Niz | 234.03 | 2 | |
| Horgan | 240.36 | 4 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Breece Hall | 12.1% | 1476.03 | 14 weeks
|
| Miller | De'Von Achane | 15.6% | 1799.75 | 14 weeks
|
| Kev | Dak Prescott | 12.5% | 1713.84 | 14 weeks
|
| Demich | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.4% | 1454.11 | 14 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 16.2% | 1869.35 | 14 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Jahmyr Gibbs | 18.3% | 1721.04 | 14 weeks
|
| Adam | Christian McCaffrey | 17.7% | 1880.31 | 14 weeks
|
| Nevans | Josh Allen | 19.6% | 1613.50 | 14 weeks
|
| Josh | Nico Collins | 12.0% | 1589.47 | 14 weeks
|
| Martin | Chase Brown | 13.5% | 1400.17 | 14 weeks
|
| Fischer | Ja'Marr Chase | 13.4% | 1455.48 | 14 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Derrick Henry | 11.9% | 1648.90 | 14 weeks
|
| Niz | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 16.6% | 1440.42 | 14 weeks
|
| Horgan | A.J. Brown | 11.9% | 1573.26 | 14 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | C.J. Stroud | 71.23 | 1 | |
| Miller | Bo Nix | 106.97 | 1 | |
| Kev | Jonathan Taylor | 458.15 | 1 | |
| Demich | D'Andre Swift | 86.08 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | No single-player result flip | 0.00 | 0 | 1 week
|
| Big Hut | Puka Nacua | 274.97 | 1 | |
| Adam | CeeDee Lamb | 116.61 | 1 | |
| Nevans | Tetairoa McMillan | 115.00 | 1 | |
| Josh | Ja'Marr Chase | 97.09 | 1 | |
| Martin | Saquon Barkley | 187.21 | 2 | |
| Fischer | Jahmyr Gibbs | 197.64 | 2 | |
| Joe Shore | Caleb Williams | 43.85 | 1 | |
| Niz | David Montgomery | 78.71 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Josh Allen | 176.47 | 2 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.