2025 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

j-mart

114.58

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

108.94

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 118.48 vs. actual 114.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	3.12	Sam Darnold	3.12
WR	CeeDee Lamb	26.20	CeeDee Lamb	26.20
WR	Romeo Doubs	12.04	Romeo Doubs	12.04
RB	Breece Hall	15.60	Breece Hall	15.60
RB	Jaylen Warren	12.40	Jaylen Warren	12.40
TE	Brock Bowers	22.30	Brock Bowers	22.30
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	8.90	David Montgomery	12.80
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	11.40	Xavier Worthy	11.40
DEF	Ravens	2.62	Ravens	2.62

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 26.20 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.50 points left. Optimal 111.44 vs. actual 108.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.30	Jalen Hurts	16.30
WR	DeVonta Smith	9.80	DeVonta Smith	9.80
WR	Alec Pierce	17.80	Alec Pierce	17.80
RB	James Cook III	20.70	James Cook III	20.70
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	11.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	11.60
TE	Travis Kelce	15.50	Travis Kelce	15.50
W/R/T	Cade Otton	2.90	Cooper Kupp	5.40
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	11.30	Quentin Johnston	11.30
DEF	Falcons	3.04	Falcons	3.04

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 20.70 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 26.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

Miller

143.84

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

109.12

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.50 points left. Optimal 165.34 vs. actual 143.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	20.48	Drake Maye	20.48
WR	Rashee Rice	29.40	Rashee Rice	29.40
WR	Puka Nacua	13.20	Puka Nacua	13.20
RB	De'Von Achane	21.40	De'Von Achane	21.40
RB	RJ Harvey	21.20	RJ Harvey	21.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.70	Brenton Strange	13.50
W/R/T	Brenton Strange	13.50	Adonai Mitchell	26.20
W/R/T	Devin Neal	9.90	Devin Neal	9.90
DEF	Chargers	10.06	Chargers	10.06

Carried by One Guy: Rashee Rice, 29.40 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.52 points left. Optimal 119.64 vs. actual 109.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	17.12	Brock Purdy	17.12
WR	Justin Jefferson	2.40	Jameson Williams	28.90
WR	Jameson Williams	28.90	Ladd McConkey	13.90
RB	Zach Charbonnet	11.20	Zach Charbonnet	11.20
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	11.60	TreVeyon Henderson	11.60
TE	Jake Ferguson	8.60	Jake Ferguson	8.60
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	13.90	Keaton Mitchell	12.92
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	11.30	Tetairoa McMillan	11.30
DEF	Raiders	4.10	Raiders	4.10

Carried by One Guy: Jameson Williams, 28.90 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

Kev

105.27

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

118.10

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.76 points left. Optimal 129.03 vs. actual 105.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	13.56	Dak Prescott	22.60
WR	Stefon Diggs	5.60	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.80
WR	Courtland Sutton	17.20	Courtland Sutton	17.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	5.60	Saquon Barkley	5.60
RB	Kyren Williams	13.20	Kyren Williams	13.20
TE	George Kittle	10.70	George Kittle	10.70
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	5.10	Pat Bryant	7.20
W/R/T	Parker Washington	3.88	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.30
DEF	Seahawks	30.43	Seahawks	30.43

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Seahawks, 30.43 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: D'Andre Swift scored 22.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.42 points left. Optimal 128.52 vs. actual 118.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.62	Daniel Jones	16.14
WR	Nico Collins	21.50	Nico Collins	21.50
WR	Christian Watson	18.30	Christian Watson	18.30
RB	D'Andre Swift	22.80	D'Andre Swift	22.80
RB	Kenneth Walker	10.40	Kenneth Walker	10.40
TE	Mark Andrews	8.70	Mark Andrews	8.70
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	11.30	Hunter Henry	11.30
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	8.20	Blake Corum	14.10
DEF	Broncos	5.28	Broncos	5.28

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 22.80 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

Krajcik

118.99

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

95.84

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.06 points left. Optimal 143.05 vs. actual 118.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	21.66	Trevor Lawrence	21.66
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	10.40	Jakobi Meyers	21.30
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	4.30	Wan'Dale Robinson	10.40
RB	Rico Dowdle	9.90	Rico Dowdle	9.90
RB	Bijan Robinson	32.30	Bijan Robinson	32.30
TE	Trey McBride	22.20	Trey McBride	22.20
W/R/T	Kenny Gainwell	7.02	Rhamondre Stevenson	11.00
W/R/T	Chimere Dike	3.94	Kenny Gainwell	7.02
DEF	Steelers	7.27	Steelers	7.27

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 32.30 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.10 points left. Optimal 112.94 vs. actual 95.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	16.72	Josh Allen	16.72
WR	Michael Wilson	6.60	Michael Wilson	6.60
WR	Ricky Pearsall	3.40	Keon Coleman	8.90
RB	Javonte Williams	17.00	Javonte Williams	17.00
RB	Ashton Jeanty	12.10	Ashton Jeanty	12.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.20
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	5.60	Jerry Jeudy	5.60
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	4.50	Bucky Irving	16.10
DEF	Jaguars	14.72	Jaguars	14.72

Carried by One Guy: Javonte Williams, 17.00 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bijan Robinson scored 32.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

Adam

94.40

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Martin

89.27

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.78 points left. Optimal 115.18 vs. actual 94.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	19.24	Joe Burrow	19.24
WR	DK Metcalf	6.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	14.38
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.90	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.40	Christian McCaffrey	17.40
RB	Jonathan Taylor	15.10	Jonathan Taylor	15.10
TE	Colston Loveland	5.80	T.J. Hockenson	11.90
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	9.00	Kareem Hunt	9.00
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	7.00	Tyler Allgeier	13.50
DEF	Browns	1.76	Browns	1.76

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 19.24 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 89.27 vs. actual 89.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	6.54	Lamar Jackson	6.54
WR	George Pickens	16.80	George Pickens	16.80
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	4.80	Brian Thomas Jr.	4.80
RB	Chase Brown	18.30	Chase Brown	18.30
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	4.30	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	4.30
TE	Dalton Schultz	12.50	Dalton Schultz	12.50
W/R/T	Josh Downs	6.40	Josh Downs	6.40
W/R/T	Woody Marks	7.70	Woody Marks	7.70
DEF	49ers	11.93	49ers	11.93

Carried by One Guy: Chase Brown, 18.30 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joe Burrow scored 19.24; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

Fischer

121.07

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

113.64

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.30 points left. Optimal 136.37 vs. actual 121.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	20.64	Jared Goff	20.64
WR	Davante Adams	21.80	Davante Adams	21.80
WR	Jayden Higgins	11.50	Terry McLaurin	22.60
RB	Dylan Sampson	2.30	Ray Davis	6.50
RB	Kyle Monangai	21.00	Kyle Monangai	21.00
TE	Tyler Warren	11.20	Tyler Warren	11.20
W/R/T	Chris Olave	14.70	Chris Olave	14.70
W/R/T	Kayshon Boutte	13.50	Kayshon Boutte	13.50
DEF	Texans	4.43	Texans	4.43

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 21.80 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.02 points left. Optimal 150.66 vs. actual 113.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	29.44	Patrick Mahomes	29.44
WR	A.J. Brown	37.20	A.J. Brown	37.20
WR	Zay Flowers	0.60	Greg Dortch	4.12
RB	Isiah Pacheco	5.30	Chuba Hubbard	20.40
RB	Quinshon Judkins	15.90	Quinshon Judkins	15.90
TE	Theo Johnson	5.90	Theo Johnson	5.90
W/R/T	Aaron Jones Sr.	4.50	Bam Knight	16.80
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	2.30	Tyjae Spears	8.40
DEF	Dolphins	12.50	Dolphins	12.50

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 37.20 points (32.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 21.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2025

Joe Shore

102.39

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Niz

78.38

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.21 points left. Optimal 130.60 vs. actual 102.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	21.64	Jacoby Brissett	21.64
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	20.00	Keenan Allen	7.00
WR	Rome Odunze	2.80	Ja'Marr Chase	20.00
RB	Derrick Henry	17.40	Derrick Henry	17.40
RB	Kimani Vidal	22.70	Kimani Vidal	22.70
TE	Oronde Gadsden	3.70	Darren Waller	6.70
W/R/T	Darren Waller	6.70	Devin Singletary	20.28
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	4.10	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	10.10
DEF	Rams	3.35	Eagles	4.78

Carried by One Guy: Kimani Vidal, 22.70 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.07 points left. Optimal 110.45 vs. actual 78.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	18.44	Jordan Love	25.76
WR	Jauan Jennings	13.90	Hollywood Brown	10.00
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	0.00	Jauan Jennings	13.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	10.10	Josh Jacobs	10.10
RB	Tony Pollard	5.30	Tony Pollard	5.30
TE	Zach Ertz	22.60	Zach Ertz	22.60
W/R/T	DJ Moore	4.70	DJ Moore	4.70
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	1.50	Nick Chubb	9.40
DEF	Chiefs	1.84	Buccaneers	8.69

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Zach Ertz, 22.60 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–7	5.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	8–5	8.692	-3.5	-0.269	2 / 3
Kev	5–8	7.385	-14.0	-1.077	1 / 5
Demich	3–10	5.000	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	12–1	9.846	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	6–7	7.154	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	9–4	9.692	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Nevans	6–7	5.615	+4.5	+0.346	3 / 2
Josh	8–5	6.000	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	3–10	3.000	+3.0	+0.231	3 / 1
Fischer	4–9	5.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	9–4	7.154	+5.5	+0.423	3 / 2
Niz	6–7	4.538	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	6–7	6.385	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2

2025 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13