2025 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

j-mart

97.99

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

131.92

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.30 points left. Optimal 117.29 vs. actual 97.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	16.10	Kyler Murray	16.10
WR	Darnell Mooney	2.50	Rashid Shaheed	9.40
WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.40	Xavier Worthy	17.10
RB	David Montgomery	1.20	Jordan Mason	10.20
RB	Jordan Mason	10.20	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	5.90
TE	Brock Bowers	9.60	Brock Bowers	9.60
W/R/T	Breece Hall	16.10	Breece Hall	16.10
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	29.90	Romeo Doubs	29.90
DEF	Commanders	2.99	Commanders	2.99

Carried by One Guy: Romeo Doubs, 29.90 points (30.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 138.12 vs. actual 131.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	29.40	Matthew Stafford	29.40
WR	Nico Collins	11.90	Nico Collins	11.90
WR	Emeka Egbuka	22.10	Emeka Egbuka	22.10
RB	D'Andre Swift	16.00	D'Andre Swift	16.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	12.00	Kenneth Walker	12.00
TE	Mark Andrews	10.00	Hunter Henry	11.90
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	6.20	J.K. Dobbins	13.50
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	13.50	Brenton Strange	10.50
DEF	Broncos	10.82	Broncos	10.82

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 29.40 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

Miller

140.42

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

128.07

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.06 points left. Optimal 154.48 vs. actual 140.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	23.22	Drake Maye	23.22
WR	Jordan Addison	17.40	Jordan Addison	17.40
WR	Puka Nacua	38.00	Puka Nacua	38.00
RB	De'Von Achane	17.10	De'Von Achane	17.10
RB	Cam Skattebo	13.00	Cam Skattebo	13.00
TE	Sam LaPorta	6.90	Dallas Goedert	19.70
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	19.70	Tyquan Thornton	8.10
W/R/T	Tyquan Thornton	8.10	RJ Harvey	20.96
DEF	Packers	-3.00	Packers	-3.00

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 38.00 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.08 points left. Optimal 144.15 vs. actual 128.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	19.40	Jalen Hurts	19.40
WR	Cooper Kupp	6.60	Cooper Kupp	6.60
WR	DeVonta Smith	4.90	Marvin Mims Jr.	20.98
RB	James Cook III	24.50	James Cook III	24.50
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.70	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.70
TE	Travis Kelce	9.80	Travis Kelce	9.80
W/R/T	KaVontae Turpin	10.90	KaVontae Turpin	10.90
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	23.80	Quentin Johnston	23.80
DEF	Chiefs	10.47	Chiefs	10.47

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 24.50 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Puka Nacua scored 38.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

Kev

145.51

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Nevans

177.97

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.12 points left. Optimal 184.63 vs. actual 145.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	19.84	Dak Prescott	32.96
WR	Courtland Sutton	19.10	Courtland Sutton	19.10
WR	George Pickens	35.40	George Pickens	35.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	17.40	Saquon Barkley	17.40
RB	Kyren Williams	10.40	Travis Etienne Jr.	21.50
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	4.50	Evan Engram	6.90
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	12.70	Stefon Diggs	18.10
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	5.60	Tyreek Hill	12.70
DEF	Lions	20.57	Lions	20.57

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 35.40 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ashton Jeanty scored 35.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 181.67 vs. actual 177.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	24.86	Josh Allen	24.86
WR	Jerry Jeudy	7.80	Garrett Wilson	20.20
WR	Garrett Wilson	20.20	Ricky Pearsall	8.60
RB	Bucky Irving	27.50	Bucky Irving	27.50
RB	Ashton Jeanty	35.50	Ashton Jeanty	35.50
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	18.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	18.00
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	19.00	Javonte Williams	19.00
W/R/T	Ricky Pearsall	8.60	Mason Taylor	11.50
DEF	Eagles	16.51	Eagles	16.51

Carried by One Guy: Ashton Jeanty, 35.50 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

Demich

100.40

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

138.85

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.66 points left. Optimal 112.06 vs. actual 100.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	19.66	Brock Purdy	19.66
WR	Justin Jefferson	24.60	Justin Jefferson	24.60
WR	Ladd McConkey	2.10	Jameson Williams	5.70
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	13.00	TreVeyon Henderson	13.00
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	7.70	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	7.70
TE	Jake Ferguson	17.00	Jake Ferguson	17.00
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	4.34	Zach Charbonnet	12.40
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	10.20	Tetairoa McMillan	10.20
DEF	Jets	1.80	Jets	1.80

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 24.60 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 143.85 vs. actual 138.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	11.78	Caleb Williams	11.78
WR	DK Metcalf	25.60	DK Metcalf	25.60
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	18.60	Marvin Harrison Jr.	18.60
RB	Christian McCaffrey	26.10	Christian McCaffrey	26.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	14.60	Jonathan Taylor	14.60
TE	T.J. Hockenson	7.90	T.J. Hockenson	7.90
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.10	Hollywood Brown	12.80
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	7.80	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.10
DEF	Vikings	6.37	Vikings	6.37

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 26.10 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

Martin

102.19

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

136.77

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.92 points left. Optimal 105.11 vs. actual 102.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	10.68	Lamar Jackson	10.68
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	10.60	Brian Thomas Jr.	10.60
WR	Matthew Golden	11.52	Matthew Golden	11.52
RB	Chase Brown	10.10	Chase Brown	10.10
RB	Trey Benson	10.40	Trey Benson	10.40
TE	David Njoku	3.10	David Njoku	3.10
W/R/T	Calvin Austin III	3.48	Josh Downs	6.40
W/R/T	Woody Marks	27.90	Woody Marks	27.90
DEF	Texans	14.41	Texans	14.41

Carried by One Guy: Woody Marks, 27.90 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 139.87 vs. actual 136.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	9.78	Geno Smith	9.78
WR	Keenan Allen	8.70	Drake London	27.00
WR	Drake London	27.00	Troy Franklin	9.50
RB	Derrick Henry	7.80	Kenny Gainwell	32.38
RB	Kenny Gainwell	32.38	Emari Demercado	10.10
TE	Tucker Kraft	10.60	Tucker Kraft	10.60
W/R/T	Davante Adams	15.60	Davante Adams	15.60
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	16.90	Rome Odunze	16.90
DEF	Bills	8.01	Bills	8.01

Carried by One Guy: Kenny Gainwell, 32.38 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

Fischer

99.46

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

137.50

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.20 points left. Optimal 99.66 vs. actual 99.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	16.08	Sam Darnold	16.08
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	7.30	Demarcus Robinson	3.00
WR	Kayshon Boutte	2.80	Ja'Marr Chase	7.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	11.20	Alvin Kamara	11.20
RB	Omarion Hampton	29.50	Omarion Hampton	29.50
TE	Tyler Warren	18.30	Tyler Warren	18.30
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	3.40	Rashod Bateman	3.40
W/R/T	Dontayvion Wicks	3.90	Dontayvion Wicks	3.90
DEF	Chargers	6.98	Chargers	6.98

Carried by One Guy: Omarion Hampton, 29.50 points (29.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.54 points left. Optimal 138.04 vs. actual 137.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	27.74	Jordan Love	28.28
WR	DJ Moore	7.80	DJ Moore	7.80
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	26.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	26.00
RB	Josh Jacobs	31.70	Josh Jacobs	31.70
RB	Tony Pollard	10.60	Tony Pollard	10.60
TE	Dalton Kincaid	9.80	Dalton Kincaid	9.80
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	8.20	Nick Chubb	8.20
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	18.02	Khalil Shakir	18.02
DEF	Ravens	-2.36	Ravens	-2.36

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 31.70 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 23 – 29, 2025

Krajcik

115.03

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Horgan

99.05

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.20 points left. Optimal 121.23 vs. actual 115.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	27.14	Justin Fields	27.14
WR	Calvin Ridley	5.00	Jakobi Meyers	7.00
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.00	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.00
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	5.10	Rhamondre Stevenson	5.10
RB	Bijan Robinson	30.10	Bijan Robinson	30.10
TE	Trey McBride	12.20	Trey McBride	12.20
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	7.00	Rico Dowdle	7.00
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	4.40	Rachaad White	8.60
DEF	Steelers	11.09	Steelers	11.09

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 30.10 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 33.18 points left. Optimal 132.23 vs. actual 99.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	12.52	Patrick Mahomes	27.30
WR	A.J. Brown	2.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.10
WR	Malik Nabers	4.00	Jalen Tolbert	10.10
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.90	Chuba Hubbard	9.90
RB	Quinshon Judkins	21.50	Quinshon Judkins	21.50
TE	Juwan Johnson	5.80	Dalton Schultz	8.00
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.10	Isiah Pacheco	12.80
W/R/T	Zay Flowers	14.40	Zay Flowers	14.40
DEF	Seahawks	13.13	Seahawks	13.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Quinshon Judkins, 21.50 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bijan Robinson scored 30.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–2	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–2	2.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	3–1	2.385	-3.0	-0.231	1 / 1
Demich	0–4	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	4–0	2.538	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	3–1	2.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	3–1	3.231	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	2–2	2.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Josh	3–1	1.923	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	0–4	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–4	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–1	2.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–2	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–3	2.154	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1

2025 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4