2025 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

j-mart

106.44

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev

125.59

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.00 points left. Optimal 123.44 vs. actual 106.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	14.00	Kyler Murray	14.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	22.20	CeeDee Lamb	22.20
WR	Rashid Shaheed	15.66	Rashid Shaheed	15.66
RB	Breece Hall	5.80	Tyler Allgeier	15.00
RB	Jaylen Warren	17.40	Jaylen Warren	17.40
TE	Brock Bowers	8.80	Brock Bowers	8.80
W/R/T	David Montgomery	13.10	David Montgomery	13.10
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	4.00	Romeo Doubs	11.80
DEF	49ers	5.48	49ers	5.48

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 22.20 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 24.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 131.19 vs. actual 125.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	24.14	Dak Prescott	24.14
WR	Courtland Sutton	1.60	Stefon Diggs	7.20
WR	George Pickens	17.80	George Pickens	17.80
RB	Saquon Barkley	17.40	Saquon Barkley	17.40
RB	Kyren Williams	10.00	Kyren Williams	10.00
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	9.80	Harold Fannin Jr.	9.80
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	19.28	Tyreek Hill	19.28
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	16.90	Travis Etienne Jr.	16.90
DEF	Lions	8.67	Lions	8.67

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 24.14 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

Miller

114.10

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

137.56

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.76 points left. Optimal 132.86 vs. actual 114.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	19.70	Drake Maye	26.30
WR	Puka Nacua	27.60	Puka Nacua	27.60
WR	DeMario Douglas	1.80	Luther Burden III	4.86
RB	De'Von Achane	26.20	De'Von Achane	26.20
RB	RJ Harvey	4.80	Cam Skattebo	13.90
TE	Sam LaPorta	5.60	Sam LaPorta	5.60
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	5.90	Dalton Schultz	5.90
W/R/T	Bhayshul Tuten	15.92	Bhayshul Tuten	15.92
DEF	Packers	6.58	Packers	6.58

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 27.60 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Wan'Dale Robinson scored 30.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.82 points left. Optimal 159.38 vs. actual 137.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	3.98	Baker Mayfield	19.90
WR	Calvin Ridley	8.70	Jakobi Meyers	12.80
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.30
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.20	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.20
RB	Bijan Robinson	21.80	Bijan Robinson	21.80
TE	Trey McBride	13.80	Trey McBride	13.80
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	12.80	Wan'Dale Robinson	30.20
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	30.20	Rachaad White	14.60
DEF	Steelers	4.78	Steelers	4.78

Carried by One Guy: Wan'Dale Robinson, 30.20 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

Big Hut

126.71

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

104.15

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.14 points left. Optimal 128.85 vs. actual 126.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	11.54	Jalen Hurts	11.54
WR	Mike Evans	10.60	Mike Evans	10.60
WR	DeVonta Smith	9.30	Marvin Mims Jr.	11.44
RB	James Cook III	28.50	James Cook III	28.50
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.40
TE	Travis Kelce	10.10	Travis Kelce	10.10
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	16.00	Cooper Kupp	16.00
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	15.90	Quentin Johnston	15.90
DEF	Chiefs	5.37	Chiefs	5.37

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 28.50 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.50 points left. Optimal 115.65 vs. actual 104.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	11.82	Bryce Young	23.32
WR	Jerry Jeudy	9.10	Jerry Jeudy	9.10
WR	Garrett Wilson	9.00	Garrett Wilson	9.00
RB	Bucky Irving	18.10	Bucky Irving	18.10
RB	Ashton Jeanty	7.40	Ashton Jeanty	7.40
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.70
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	25.00	Javonte Williams	25.00
W/R/T	Ricky Pearsall	9.20	Ricky Pearsall	9.20
DEF	Eagles	6.83	Eagles	6.83

Carried by One Guy: Javonte Williams, 25.00 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Cook III scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

Martin

90.94

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

127.76

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.44 points left. Optimal 101.38 vs. actual 90.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	26.30	Lamar Jackson	26.30
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	8.90	Joshua Palmer	6.70
WR	Matthew Golden	1.46	Brian Thomas Jr.	8.90
RB	Chase Brown	8.50	Chase Brown	8.50
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	12.74	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	12.74
TE	David Njoku	8.00	David Njoku	8.00
W/R/T	Calvin Austin III	3.20	Josh Downs	11.10
W/R/T	Josh Downs	11.10	Trey Benson	8.40
DEF	Texans	10.74	Texans	10.74

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 26.30 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 41.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 39.04 points left. Optimal 166.80 vs. actual 127.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	20.24	Jordan Love	20.88
WR	DJ Moore	9.60	DJ Moore	9.60
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	41.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	41.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	14.40	Josh Jacobs	14.40
RB	Tony Pollard	9.20	Tony Pollard	9.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	7.70	Zach Ertz	18.40
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	2.20	Nick Chubb	15.20
W/R/T	Travis Hunter	5.20	Jauan Jennings	19.90
DEF	Ravens	18.02	Ravens	18.02

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 41.20 points (32.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

Adam

132.25

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

113.90

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.90 points left. Optimal 143.15 vs. actual 132.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	16.98	Caleb Williams	16.98
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.96	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.96
WR	DK Metcalf	11.00	DK Metcalf	11.00
RB	Christian McCaffrey	22.70	Christian McCaffrey	22.70
RB	Jonathan Taylor	31.50	Jonathan Taylor	31.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	2.20	T.J. Hockenson	2.20
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	17.80	Jaylen Waddle	17.80
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	4.70	Elic Ayomanor	15.60
DEF	Vikings	6.41	Vikings	6.41

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 31.50 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.60 points left. Optimal 121.50 vs. actual 113.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	7.04	Joe Burrow	7.04
WR	Terry McLaurin	9.80	Terry McLaurin	9.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	38.50	Ja'Marr Chase	38.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	16.00	Alvin Kamara	16.00
RB	Austin Ekeler	4.40	Dylan Sampson	10.90
TE	Tyler Warren	11.90	Tyler Warren	11.90
W/R/T	Kayshon Boutte	8.60	Adam Thielen	4.60
W/R/T	Omarion Hampton	3.50	Kayshon Boutte	8.60
DEF	Cardinals	14.16	Cardinals	14.16

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 38.50 points (33.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jonathan Taylor scored 31.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

Josh

108.50

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

131.84

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.30 points left. Optimal 111.80 vs. actual 108.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	14.98	C.J. Stroud	14.98
WR	Tee Higgins	14.60	Tee Higgins	14.60
WR	Nico Collins	14.20	Nico Collins	14.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	13.90	D'Andre Swift	13.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	20.80	Kenneth Walker	20.80
TE	Mark Andrews	1.40	Brenton Strange	4.70
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	15.50	J.K. Dobbins	15.50
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	12.90	Emeka Egbuka	12.90
DEF	Broncos	0.22	Broncos	0.22

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker, 20.80 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rome Odunze scored 33.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.29 points left. Optimal 145.13 vs. actual 131.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Penix Jr.	5.30	Michael Penix Jr.	5.30
WR	Davante Adams	24.60	Davante Adams	24.60
WR	Rome Odunze	33.80	Rome Odunze	33.80
RB	Derrick Henry	2.30	James Conner	12.20
RB	James Conner	12.20	Kendre Miller	3.64
TE	Tucker Kraft	26.40	Tucker Kraft	26.40
W/R/T	Drake London	5.90	Keenan Allen	17.10
W/R/T	Chris Olave	11.40	Chris Olave	11.40
DEF	Rams	9.94	Bills	10.69

Carried by One Guy: Rome Odunze, 33.80 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 9 – 15, 2025

Demich

96.38

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

128.09

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 109.88 vs. actual 96.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	19.24	Trevor Lawrence	19.24
WR	Justin Jefferson	11.10	Justin Jefferson	11.10
WR	Ladd McConkey	9.80	Ladd McConkey	9.80
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	6.00	Ray Davis	2.40
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	1.70	TreVeyon Henderson	6.00
TE	Jake Ferguson	16.80	Jake Ferguson	16.80
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	8.00	Jameson Williams	20.80
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	18.00	Tetairoa McMillan	18.00
DEF	Buccaneers	5.74	Buccaneers	5.74

Carried by One Guy: Trevor Lawrence, 19.24 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Malik Nabers scored 39.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.10 points left. Optimal 139.19 vs. actual 128.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	18.78	Patrick Mahomes	22.08
WR	A.J. Brown	7.70	A.J. Brown	7.70
WR	Malik Nabers	39.70	Malik Nabers	39.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	2.30	Chuba Hubbard	18.70
RB	Chuba Hubbard	18.70	Quinshon Judkins	10.10
TE	Juwan Johnson	15.90	Juwan Johnson	15.90
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	8.00	Michael Pittman Jr.	8.00
W/R/T	Zay Flowers	14.90	Zay Flowers	14.90
DEF	Cowboys	2.11	Cowboys	2.11

Carried by One Guy: Malik Nabers, 39.70 points (31.0% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–1	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	0–2	1.154	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	2–0	0.846	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Demich	0–2	0.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–0	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	2–0	1.000	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	1–1	1.462	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	1–1	1.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–1	0.538	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	0–2	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–2	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–0	1.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–1	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–1	1.615	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1

2025 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2