2025 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

j-mart

118.22

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

104.78

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 126.62 vs. actual 118.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	14.06	Kyler Murray	14.06
WR	CeeDee Lamb	0.00	Darnell Mooney	8.40
WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.00	Rashid Shaheed	9.00
RB	Breece Hall	9.20	Breece Hall	9.20
RB	Jaylen Warren	13.10	Jaylen Warren	13.10
TE	Brock Bowers	9.80	Brock Bowers	9.80
W/R/T	David Montgomery	31.40	David Montgomery	31.40
W/R/T	Jordan Mason	25.60	Jordan Mason	25.60
DEF	49ers	6.06	49ers	6.06

Carried by One Guy: David Montgomery, 31.40 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 108.68 vs. actual 104.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	13.42	Bo Nix	13.42
WR	DJ Moore	12.80	DJ Moore	12.80
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.70	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	12.40	Josh Jacobs	12.40
RB	Tony Pollard	13.90	Tony Pollard	13.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	17.60	Dalton Kincaid	17.60
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	14.50	Nick Chubb	7.00
W/R/T	Travis Hunter	3.10	Khalil Shakir	14.50
DEF	Ravens	-3.64	Ravens	-3.64

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 20.70 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: David Montgomery scored 31.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

Demich

98.27

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

152.31

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.90 points left. Optimal 100.17 vs. actual 98.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	7.78	Trevor Lawrence	7.78
WR	Justin Jefferson	12.50	Justin Jefferson	12.50
WR	Ladd McConkey	8.30	Ladd McConkey	8.30
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	9.06	TreVeyon Henderson	9.06
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	10.10	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	10.10
TE	Jake Ferguson	21.20	Jake Ferguson	21.20
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	6.30	Hollywood Brown	8.20
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	7.80	Tetairoa McMillan	7.80
DEF	Buccaneers	15.23	Buccaneers	15.23

Carried by One Guy: Jake Ferguson, 21.20 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.70 points left. Optimal 166.01 vs. actual 152.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	29.04	Jalen Hurts	29.04
WR	Mike Evans	13.30	Mike Evans	13.30
WR	DeVonta Smith	20.00	DeVonta Smith	20.00
RB	James Cook III	22.80	James Cook III	22.80
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	26.90	Jahmyr Gibbs	26.90
TE	Travis Kelce	6.60	Chig Okonkwo	11.60
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	5.10	Jeremy McNichols	13.80
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	14.90	Quentin Johnston	14.90
DEF	Chiefs	13.67	Chiefs	13.67

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 29.04 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

Adam

176.60

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

127.67

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.04 points left. Optimal 187.64 vs. actual 176.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	29.12	Caleb Williams	29.12
WR	DK Metcalf	12.20	DK Metcalf	12.20
WR	Jaylen Waddle	14.90	Jaylen Waddle	14.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	24.00	Christian McCaffrey	24.00
RB	Jonathan Taylor	34.80	Jonathan Taylor	34.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	15.90	T.J. Hockenson	15.90
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6.76	Kareem Hunt	11.40
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.40	Elic Ayomanor	13.80
DEF	Vikings	31.52	Vikings	31.52

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 34.80 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 130.77 vs. actual 127.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.02	Josh Allen	23.02
WR	Jerry Jeudy	2.70	Garrett Wilson	24.40
WR	Garrett Wilson	24.40	Ricky Pearsall	21.70
RB	Bucky Irving	13.90	Bucky Irving	13.90
RB	Ashton Jeanty	6.30	Ashton Jeanty	6.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.90
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	12.20	Javonte Williams	12.20
W/R/T	Ricky Pearsall	21.70	Mason Taylor	5.80
DEF	Eagles	15.55	Eagles	15.55

Carried by One Guy: Garrett Wilson, 24.40 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

Josh

139.39

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

89.82

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 148.99 vs. actual 139.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	15.82	Daniel Jones	15.82
WR	Tee Higgins	2.50	Nico Collins	24.40
WR	Nico Collins	24.40	Emeka Egbuka	14.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	10.80	D'Andre Swift	10.80
RB	Kenneth Walker	18.00	Kenneth Walker	18.00
TE	Mark Andrews	27.10	Mark Andrews	27.10
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	15.30	J.K. Dobbins	15.30
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	14.50	Brenton Strange	12.10
DEF	Broncos	10.97	Broncos	10.97

Carried by One Guy: Mark Andrews, 27.10 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 92.52 vs. actual 89.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	27.02	Lamar Jackson	27.02
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	7.50	Brian Thomas Jr.	7.50
WR	Matthew Golden	10.26	Matthew Golden	10.26
RB	Chase Brown	6.00	Chase Brown	6.00
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	5.60	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	5.60
TE	David Njoku	9.00	David Njoku	9.00
W/R/T	Calvin Austin III	12.40	Calvin Austin III	12.40
W/R/T	Josh Downs	5.40	Trey Benson	8.10
DEF	Texans	6.64	Texans	6.64

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 27.02 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

Kev

120.92

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

98.75

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.64 points left. Optimal 121.56 vs. actual 120.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	12.04	Dak Prescott	12.04
WR	Tyreek Hill	15.90	Tyreek Hill	15.90
WR	George Pickens	17.80	George Pickens	17.80
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.50	Kenny Gainwell	10.14
RB	Kyren Williams	19.20	Kyren Williams	19.20
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	5.50	Harold Fannin Jr.	5.50
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	25.80	Courtland Sutton	25.80
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.60	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.60
DEF	Falcons	3.58	Falcons	3.58

Carried by One Guy: Courtland Sutton, 25.80 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 98.75 vs. actual 98.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	12.68	Jared Goff	12.68
WR	Terry McLaurin	10.40	Terry McLaurin	10.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	8.90	Ja'Marr Chase	8.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	6.60	Alvin Kamara	6.60
RB	Omarion Hampton	25.50	Omarion Hampton	25.50
TE	Tyler Warren	6.80	Tyler Warren	6.80
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	17.30	Rashod Bateman	17.30
W/R/T	Kayshon Boutte	4.80	Kayshon Boutte	4.80
DEF	Chargers	5.77	Chargers	5.77

Carried by One Guy: Omarion Hampton, 25.50 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Courtland Sutton scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

Krajcik

108.19

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

92.10

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.22 points left. Optimal 117.41 vs. actual 108.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	17.72	Baker Mayfield	17.72
WR	Calvin Ridley	3.70	Jakobi Meyers	9.30
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.60	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.60
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.60	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.60
RB	Bijan Robinson	16.10	Bijan Robinson	16.10
TE	Trey McBride	15.30	Trey McBride	15.30
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	9.30	Jonnu Smith	5.30
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	3.60	Rico Dowdle	11.22
DEF	Steelers	17.27	Steelers	17.27

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 20.60 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.74 points left. Optimal 100.84 vs. actual 92.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jake Browning	5.90	Jake Browning	5.90
WR	Davante Adams	14.60	Davante Adams	14.60
WR	Rome Odunze	15.20	Rome Odunze	15.20
RB	Derrick Henry	10.70	Derrick Henry	10.70
RB	James Conner	6.70	Kendre Miller	10.24
TE	Tucker Kraft	5.90	Tucker Kraft	5.90
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	19.50	Keenan Allen	19.50
W/R/T	Drake London	10.50	Chris Olave	15.70
DEF	Bills	3.10	Bills	3.10

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 19.50 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 20.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 16 – 22, 2025

Miller

136.88

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

109.52

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 136.88 vs. actual 136.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	19.22	Drake Maye	19.22
WR	Tyquan Thornton	18.10	Tyquan Thornton	18.10
WR	Puka Nacua	24.80	Puka Nacua	24.80
RB	De'Von Achane	16.10	De'Von Achane	16.10
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	8.10	Bhayshul Tuten	8.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	10.30	Dallas Goedert	10.30
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	7.30	Sam LaPorta	7.30
W/R/T	Cam Skattebo	24.10	Cam Skattebo	24.10
DEF	Packers	8.86	Packers	8.86

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 24.80 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.84 points left. Optimal 128.36 vs. actual 109.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	13.16	Justin Herbert	16.60
WR	A.J. Brown	24.90	Christian Kirk	5.50
WR	Malik Nabers	3.30	A.J. Brown	24.90
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.60	Chuba Hubbard	9.60
RB	Isiah Pacheco	5.80	Isiah Pacheco	5.80
TE	Juwan Johnson	11.10	Juwan Johnson	11.10
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.30	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.30
W/R/T	Zay Flowers	3.30	Quinshon Judkins	16.50
DEF	Seahawks	19.06	Seahawks	19.06

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 24.90 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–1	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	1–2	1.923	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	3–0	1.462	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Demich	0–3	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	3–0	2.154	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Big Hut	3–0	1.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	2–1	2.462	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	1–2	1.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Josh	2–1	1.385	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	0–3	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–3	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	2–1	1.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–2	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–2	2.077	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1

2025 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3