2025 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

j-mart

114.01

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin

120.66

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 114.01 vs. actual 114.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	15.30	Kyler Murray	15.30
WR	Rashid Shaheed	23.40	Rashid Shaheed	23.40
WR	Xavier Worthy	11.10	Xavier Worthy	11.10
RB	Breece Hall	19.50	Breece Hall	19.50
RB	Jordan Mason	12.60	Jordan Mason	12.60
TE	Tommy Tremble	1.70	Tommy Tremble	1.70
W/R/T	David Montgomery	18.22	David Montgomery	18.22
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	4.10	Darius Slayton	4.10
DEF	Browns	8.09	Browns	8.09

Carried by One Guy: Rashid Shaheed, 23.40 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Stroud scored 28.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 120.66 vs. actual 120.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	28.76	C.J. Stroud	28.76
WR	Josh Downs	11.40	Josh Downs	11.40
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	12.00	Brian Thomas Jr.	12.00
RB	Chase Brown	11.80	Chase Brown	11.80
RB	Woody Marks	2.40	Woody Marks	2.40
TE	David Njoku	18.70	David Njoku	18.70
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	5.60	Joshua Palmer	5.60
W/R/T	Michael Carter	18.30	Michael Carter	18.30
DEF	Texans	11.70	Texans	11.70

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 28.76 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

Miller

135.56

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Adam

172.41

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 135.56 vs. actual 135.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	17.14	Jayden Daniels	17.14
WR	Jordan Addison	15.10	Jordan Addison	15.10
WR	Puka Nacua	24.50	Puka Nacua	24.50
RB	De'Von Achane	16.60	De'Von Achane	16.60
RB	Cam Skattebo	14.40	Cam Skattebo	14.40
TE	Dallas Goedert	10.90	Dallas Goedert	10.90
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	20.20	Sam LaPorta	20.20
W/R/T	RJ Harvey	7.66	RJ Harvey	7.66
DEF	Cardinals	9.06	Cardinals	9.06

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 24.50 points (18.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.90 points left. Optimal 187.31 vs. actual 172.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	22.74	Tua Tagovailoa	22.74
WR	Jaylen Waddle	25.00	Jaylen Waddle	25.00
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	13.80	Marvin Harrison Jr.	13.80
RB	Christian McCaffrey	27.90	Christian McCaffrey	27.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	31.60	Jonathan Taylor	31.60
TE	Darren Waller	18.80	Darren Waller	18.80
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.60	Kareem Hunt	18.70
W/R/T	Elic Ayomanor	3.80	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.60
DEF	Vikings	5.17	Vikings	5.17

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 31.60 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

Kev

145.46

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Demich

149.03

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.00 points left. Optimal 166.46 vs. actual 145.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	28.28	Dak Prescott	28.28
WR	Courtland Sutton	17.90	Courtland Sutton	17.90
WR	George Pickens	13.70	George Pickens	13.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	17.80	Saquon Barkley	17.80
RB	Kyren Williams	31.10	Kyren Williams	31.10
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.30	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.30
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	5.60	Stefon Diggs	26.60
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.80
DEF	Lions	10.98	Lions	10.98

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 31.10 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored 29.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.44 points left. Optimal 157.47 vs. actual 149.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	26.24	Trevor Lawrence	26.24
WR	Justin Jefferson	21.30	Justin Jefferson	21.30
WR	Ladd McConkey	14.90	Ladd McConkey	14.90
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	5.16	Zach Charbonnet	11.80
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	29.00	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	29.00
TE	Jake Ferguson	23.90	Jake Ferguson	23.90
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	11.10	Tetairoa McMillan	13.30
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	13.30	Tory Horton	12.90
DEF	Panthers	4.13	Panthers	4.13

Carried by One Guy: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, 29.00 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

Krajcik

176.49

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

108.72

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.04 points left. Optimal 187.53 vs. actual 176.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	25.92	Baker Mayfield	28.66
WR	Jakobi Meyers	7.20	Calvin Ridley	20.10
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	29.20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	29.20
RB	Rico Dowdle	34.40	Rico Dowdle	34.40
RB	Rachaad White	23.10	Rachaad White	23.10
TE	Trey McBride	9.10	Trey McBride	9.10
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	20.10	Rhamondre Stevenson	15.50
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.20	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.20
DEF	Saints	19.27	Saints	19.27

Carried by One Guy: Rico Dowdle, 34.40 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.80 points left. Optimal 117.52 vs. actual 108.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	19.50	Jalen Hurts	19.50
WR	Cooper Kupp	11.90	Cooper Kupp	11.90
WR	DeVonta Smith	21.40	DeVonta Smith	21.40
RB	James Cook III	4.90	James Cook III	4.90
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	16.70	Jahmyr Gibbs	16.70
TE	Travis Kelce	19.10	Travis Kelce	19.10
W/R/T	Jalen Tolbert	0.00	Chig Okonkwo	8.80
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	6.90	Quentin Johnston	6.90
DEF	Chiefs	8.32	Chiefs	8.32

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 21.40 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

Josh

122.23

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Fischer

127.22

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.88 points left. Optimal 139.11 vs. actual 122.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	16.68	Matthew Stafford	27.56
WR	Nico Collins	16.00	Nico Collins	16.00
WR	Emeka Egbuka	33.30	Emeka Egbuka	33.30
RB	J.K. Dobbins	15.40	J.K. Dobbins	15.40
RB	Kenneth Walker	9.60	Kenneth Walker	9.60
TE	Mark Andrews	4.20	Hunter Henry	6.60
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	6.60	Tee Higgins	11.20
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	11.20	Brashard Smith	10.20
DEF	Broncos	9.25	Broncos	9.25

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Emeka Egbuka, 33.30 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ja'Marr Chase scored 31.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.52 points left. Optimal 136.74 vs. actual 127.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	20.12	Sam Darnold	29.64
WR	Demarcus Robinson	6.90	Demarcus Robinson	6.90
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	31.00	Ja'Marr Chase	31.00
RB	Alvin Kamara	9.50	Alvin Kamara	9.50
RB	Kendre Miller	6.26	Kendre Miller	6.26
TE	Tyler Warren	14.40	Tyler Warren	14.40
W/R/T	Kayshon Boutte	7.30	Kayshon Boutte	7.30
W/R/T	Omarion Hampton	13.00	Omarion Hampton	13.00
DEF	Colts	18.74	Colts	18.74

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 31.00 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

Joe Shore

86.58

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

107.77

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 86.58 vs. actual 86.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	5.92	Geno Smith	5.92
WR	Davante Adams	13.80	Davante Adams	13.80
WR	Chris Olave	12.90	Chris Olave	12.90
RB	Derrick Henry	9.30	Derrick Henry	9.30
RB	Emari Demercado	6.10	Emari Demercado	6.10
TE	Theo Johnson	21.30	Theo Johnson	21.30
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	10.80	Keenan Allen	10.80
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	8.50	Troy Franklin	8.50
DEF	Seahawks	-2.04	Seahawks	-2.04

Carried by One Guy: Theo Johnson, 21.30 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kendrick Bourne scored 26.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.48 points left. Optimal 130.25 vs. actual 107.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	14.64	Patrick Mahomes	28.72
WR	A.J. Brown	9.30	Christian Kirk	10.40
WR	Zay Flowers	12.20	Zay Flowers	12.20
RB	Isiah Pacheco	8.60	Isiah Pacheco	8.60
RB	Quinshon Judkins	15.80	Quinshon Judkins	15.80
TE	Juwan Johnson	3.70	Dalton Schultz	11.00
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	26.20	Kendrick Bourne	26.20
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	14.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	14.90
DEF	Rams	2.43	Rams	2.43

Carried by One Guy: Kendrick Bourne, 26.20 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 30 – Oct 6, 2025

Nevans

122.17

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Niz

102.40

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 122.17 vs. actual 122.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	19.42	Josh Allen	19.42
WR	Jerry Jeudy	3.50	Jerry Jeudy	3.50
WR	Garrett Wilson	19.10	Garrett Wilson	19.10
RB	Ashton Jeanty	15.90	Ashton Jeanty	15.90
RB	Trevor Etienne	3.90	Trevor Etienne	3.90
TE	Mason Taylor	17.70	Mason Taylor	17.70
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	28.90	Javonte Williams	28.90
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	10.30	Keon Coleman	10.30
DEF	Eagles	3.45	Eagles	3.45

Carried by One Guy: Javonte Williams, 28.90 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.40 points left. Optimal 111.80 vs. actual 102.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	17.88	Bo Nix	17.88
WR	Hollywood Brown	8.80	Hollywood Brown	8.80
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.00
RB	Nick Chubb	12.10	Nick Chubb	12.10
RB	Tony Pollard	14.80	Tony Pollard	14.80
TE	Dalton Kincaid	18.80	Dalton Kincaid	18.80
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	0.00	Khalil Shakir	11.00
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	11.00	Travis Hunter	9.40
DEF	Ravens	-0.98	Ravens	-0.98

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 20.00 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Javonte Williams scored 28.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–3	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	2–3	3.462	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Kev	3–2	3.154	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Demich	1–4	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	5–0	3.538	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	3–2	2.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	4–1	4.154	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	3–2	3.231	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Josh	3–2	2.462	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Martin	1–4	0.846	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	1–4	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–2	2.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–3	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	2–3	2.308	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5