2025 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

j-mart

70.50

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller

120.23

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.46 points left. Optimal 86.96 vs. actual 70.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	4.92	Sam Darnold	4.92
WR	Romeo Doubs	1.94	Kendrick Bourne	2.90
WR	Rashid Shaheed	4.64	Rashid Shaheed	4.64
RB	Breece Hall	19.50	Breece Hall	19.50
RB	Jaylen Warren	11.10	Jaylen Warren	11.10
TE	Brock Bowers	3.70	Juwan Johnson	19.20
W/R/T	David Montgomery	10.10	David Montgomery	10.10
W/R/T	Jordan Mason	4.10	Jordan Mason	4.10
DEF	Ravens	10.50	Ravens	10.50

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 19.50 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.06 points left. Optimal 124.29 vs. actual 120.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	18.10	Drake Maye	18.10
WR	Jordan Addison	6.50	Jordan Addison	6.50
WR	Puka Nacua	17.40	Puka Nacua	17.40
RB	De'Von Achane	42.50	De'Von Achane	42.50
RB	RJ Harvey	4.50	Bhayshul Tuten	5.86
TE	Sam LaPorta	10.30	Sam LaPorta	10.30
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	8.30	Dallas Goedert	8.30
W/R/T	DeMario Douglas	5.40	Luther Burden III	8.10
DEF	Panthers	7.23	Panthers	7.23

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 42.50 points (35.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

Kev

163.25

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Adam

163.31

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.64 points left. Optimal 167.89 vs. actual 163.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	26.28	Jaxson Dart	26.28
WR	Stefon Diggs	15.60	Stefon Diggs	15.60
WR	Courtland Sutton	5.40	Malik Washington	10.04
RB	Saquon Barkley	13.10	Saquon Barkley	13.10
RB	Kyren Williams	22.40	Kyren Williams	22.40
TE	George Kittle	23.40	George Kittle	23.40
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	15.70	Travis Etienne Jr.	15.70
W/R/T	Parker Washington	19.70	Parker Washington	19.70
DEF	Seahawks	21.67	Seahawks	21.67

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jaxson Dart, 26.28 points (16.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jonathan Taylor scored 51.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.20 points left. Optimal 174.51 vs. actual 163.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	25.10	Caleb Williams	25.10
WR	Jaylen Waddle	19.40	Jaylen Waddle	19.40
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.30	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	17.60	Christian McCaffrey	17.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	51.60	Jonathan Taylor	51.60
TE	Colston Loveland	9.50	Colston Loveland	9.50
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.90	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.90
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	6.50	Tyler Allgeier	17.70
DEF	Browns	6.41	Browns	6.41

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 51.60 points (31.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

Krajcik

134.67

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin

84.57

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 134.67 vs. actual 134.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	22.92	Baker Mayfield	22.92
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	12.20	Wan'Dale Robinson	12.20
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.30
RB	Rico Dowdle	15.30	Rico Dowdle	15.30
RB	Bijan Robinson	10.80	Bijan Robinson	10.80
TE	Trey McBride	29.70	Trey McBride	29.70
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	7.10	Jakobi Meyers	7.10
W/R/T	Rachaad White	10.40	Rachaad White	10.40
DEF	Steelers	5.95	Steelers	5.95

Carried by One Guy: Trey McBride, 29.70 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 90.67 vs. actual 84.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.64	Lamar Jackson	16.64
WR	Dyami Brown	0.00	Sterling Shepard	6.10
WR	Josh Downs	1.94	Josh Downs	1.94
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	8.10	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	8.10
RB	Woody Marks	16.10	Woody Marks	16.10
TE	Dalton Schultz	18.30	Dalton Schultz	18.30
W/R/T	David Njoku	10.10	David Njoku	10.10
W/R/T	Matthew Golden	0.00	Matthew Golden	0.00
DEF	Saints	13.39	Saints	13.39

Carried by One Guy: Dalton Schultz, 18.30 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

Demich

130.91

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Fischer

150.91

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 130.91 vs. actual 130.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	4.42	Geno Smith	4.42
WR	Justin Jefferson	7.70	Justin Jefferson	7.70
WR	Ladd McConkey	22.70	Ladd McConkey	22.70
RB	Zach Charbonnet	14.30	Zach Charbonnet	14.30
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	30.00	TreVeyon Henderson	30.00
TE	Pat Freiermuth	6.30	Pat Freiermuth	6.30
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	25.90	Jameson Williams	25.90
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	11.00	Tetairoa McMillan	11.00
DEF	Bears	8.59	Bears	8.59

Carried by One Guy: TreVeyon Henderson, 30.00 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jared Goff scored 26.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 150.91 vs. actual 150.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	26.80	Jared Goff	26.80
WR	Darius Slayton	12.90	Darius Slayton	12.90
WR	Chris Olave	23.40	Chris Olave	23.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	14.50	Alvin Kamara	14.50
RB	Kyle Monangai	8.80	Kyle Monangai	8.80
TE	Tyler Warren	17.90	Tyler Warren	17.90
W/R/T	Davante Adams	19.70	Davante Adams	19.70
W/R/T	Tez Johnson	20.20	Tez Johnson	20.20
DEF	Colts	6.71	Colts	6.71

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 26.80 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

Nevans

98.44

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

112.86

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 105.84 vs. actual 98.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	21.34	Josh Allen	21.34
WR	Rashod Bateman	4.00	Rashod Bateman	4.00
WR	Garrett Wilson	0.00	Michael Wilson	7.40
RB	Sean Tucker	6.10	Sean Tucker	6.10
RB	Ashton Jeanty	15.30	Ashton Jeanty	15.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.80	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.80
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	19.80	Jerry Jeudy	19.80
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	13.60	Keon Coleman	13.60
DEF	Jaguars	12.50	Jaguars	12.50

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 21.34 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drake London scored 26.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.04 points left. Optimal 128.90 vs. actual 112.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Penix Jr.	10.98	Jacoby Brissett	19.42
WR	Drake London	26.40	Drake London	26.40
WR	Troy Franklin	15.00	Troy Franklin	15.00
RB	Derrick Henry	11.40	Derrick Henry	11.40
RB	Kimani Vidal	17.80	Kimani Vidal	17.80
TE	Oronde Gadsden	4.30	Oronde Gadsden	4.30
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	3.90	Brian Robinson	11.50
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	20.60	Rome Odunze	20.60
DEF	Patriots	2.48	Patriots	2.48

Carried by One Guy: Drake London, 26.40 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

Big Hut

130.65

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz

85.84

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.00 points left. Optimal 136.65 vs. actual 130.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	12.02	Jalen Hurts	12.02
WR	DeVonta Smith	16.90	DeVonta Smith	16.90
WR	Alec Pierce	18.40	Alec Pierce	18.40
RB	James Cook III	10.70	James Cook III	10.70
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	40.20	Jahmyr Gibbs	40.20
TE	Cade Otton	17.20	Cade Otton	17.20
W/R/T	Calvin Austin III	3.40	Cooper Kupp	9.40
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	9.20	Quentin Johnston	9.20
DEF	Lions	2.63	Lions	2.63

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 40.20 points (30.8% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.44 points left. Optimal 97.28 vs. actual 85.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	5.80	Jordan Love	7.84
WR	DJ Moore	0.00	Jauan Jennings	17.10
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	16.80	Amon-Ra St. Brown	16.80
RB	Nick Chubb	6.20	Nick Chubb	6.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	19.70	Josh Jacobs	19.70
TE	Dalton Kincaid	5.70	Dalton Kincaid	5.70
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	17.10	Zach Ertz	9.40
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	12.94	Khalil Shakir	12.94
DEF	Buccaneers	1.60	Buccaneers	1.60

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 19.70 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 4 – 10, 2025

Josh

121.54

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

79.20

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.80 points left. Optimal 148.34 vs. actual 121.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	15.50	Matthew Stafford	26.90
WR	Nico Collins	24.60	Nico Collins	24.60
WR	Emeka Egbuka	25.50	Emeka Egbuka	25.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	14.80	D'Andre Swift	14.80
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.40	J.K. Dobbins	9.40
TE	Hunter Henry	1.90	Mark Andrews	10.40
W/R/T	Christian Watson	6.50	Kenneth Walker	8.00
W/R/T	Kenneth Walker	8.00	Emari Demercado	13.40
DEF	Broncos	15.34	Broncos	15.34

Carried by One Guy: Emeka Egbuka, 25.50 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.16 points left. Optimal 82.36 vs. actual 79.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	14.70	Justin Herbert	14.70
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.90
WR	Zay Flowers	12.10	Zay Flowers	12.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.90
RB	Quinshon Judkins	10.50	Quinshon Judkins	10.50
TE	Theo Johnson	14.50	Theo Johnson	14.50
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	1.30	Chuba Hubbard	4.06
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	3.30	Isaiah Likely	3.70
DEF	Bills	3.00	Bills	3.00

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 15.90 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–5	4.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	6–4	7.154	-6.0	-0.462	1 / 3
Kev	4–6	5.538	-12.5	-0.962	1 / 4
Demich	2–8	3.538	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	9–1	7.077	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	5–5	5.308	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	6–4	8.077	-8.5	-0.654	0 / 3
Nevans	5–5	4.154	+7.0	+0.538	3 / 1
Josh	6–4	4.000	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	2–8	2.385	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Fischer	3–7	3.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	7–3	6.154	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	5–5	3.846	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	5–5	4.846	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10