2025 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

j-mart

125.88

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

115.53

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.80 points left. Optimal 137.68 vs. actual 125.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Penix Jr.	12.24	Michael Penix Jr.	12.24
WR	CeeDee Lamb	24.00	CeeDee Lamb	24.00
WR	Xavier Worthy	7.80	Xavier Worthy	7.80
RB	Breece Hall	7.20	Jordan Mason	11.70
RB	Jaylen Warren	21.80	Jaylen Warren	21.80
TE	Cade Otton	13.50	Cade Otton	13.50
W/R/T	David Montgomery	5.90	Romeo Doubs	13.20
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	8.00	Rashid Shaheed	8.00
DEF	Browns	25.44	Browns	25.44

Carried by One Guy: Browns, 25.44 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.42 points left. Optimal 131.95 vs. actual 115.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	10.34	Spencer Rattler	10.52
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	40.10	Ja'Marr Chase	40.10
WR	Jordan Whittington	2.90	Jordan Whittington	2.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	5.90	Alvin Kamara	5.90
RB	Kendre Miller	1.16	Kyle Monangai	17.40
TE	Tyler Warren	16.90	Tyler Warren	16.90
W/R/T	Kayshon Boutte	13.50	Kayshon Boutte	13.50
W/R/T	Tez Johnson	15.80	Tez Johnson	15.80
DEF	Colts	8.93	Colts	8.93

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 40.10 points (34.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Browns scored 25.44; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

Kev

92.49

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

143.38

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.66 points left. Optimal 113.15 vs. actual 92.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	23.26	Jaxson Dart	28.42
WR	Stefon Diggs	13.90	Stefon Diggs	13.90
WR	Courtland Sutton	16.70	Courtland Sutton	16.70
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.50	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.50
RB	Kyren Williams	8.50	Kyren Williams	8.50
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	7.60	Harold Fannin Jr.	7.60
W/R/T	George Kittle	0.00	Evan Engram	9.20
W/R/T	Saquon Barkley	5.20	Malik Washington	11.50
DEF	Seahawks	10.83	Seahawks	10.83

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 23.26 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.40 points left. Optimal 146.78 vs. actual 143.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	11.12	Baker Mayfield	11.12
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	15.50	Wan'Dale Robinson	15.50
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	28.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	28.30
RB	Rico Dowdle	10.60	Rico Dowdle	10.60
RB	Bijan Robinson	21.20	Bijan Robinson	21.20
TE	Trey McBride	29.40	Trey McBride	29.40
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	16.80	Jonnu Smith	11.80
W/R/T	Rachaad White	8.40	Rhamondre Stevenson	16.80
DEF	Steelers	2.06	Steelers	2.06

Carried by One Guy: Trey McBride, 29.40 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

Demich

96.94

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Josh

106.65

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.30 points left. Optimal 124.24 vs. actual 96.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	17.64	Trevor Lawrence	17.64
WR	Justin Jefferson	12.90	Justin Jefferson	12.90
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	6.30	Tetairoa McMillan	6.30
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	0.50	Zach Charbonnet	19.50
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	4.20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	4.20
TE	Jake Ferguson	21.90	Jake Ferguson	21.90
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	0.00	Tre Tucker	8.30
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	15.70	Ladd McConkey	15.70
DEF	Panthers	17.80	Panthers	17.80

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jake Ferguson, 21.90 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: D'Andre Swift scored 22.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.98 points left. Optimal 119.63 vs. actual 106.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	22.22	Matthew Stafford	27.38
WR	Tee Higgins	21.60	Tee Higgins	21.60
WR	Nico Collins	6.70	Nico Collins	6.70
RB	D'Andre Swift	22.80	D'Andre Swift	22.80
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.00	J.K. Dobbins	9.00
TE	Hunter Henry	7.30	Hunter Henry	7.30
W/R/T	Kenneth Walker	6.60	Darnell Mooney	9.80
W/R/T	Luke McCaffrey	5.18	Emeka Egbuka	9.80
DEF	Broncos	5.25	Broncos	5.25

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 22.80 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

Nevans

98.78

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Martin

85.67

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 98.78 vs. actual 98.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bryce Young	10.52	Bryce Young	10.52
WR	Jerry Jeudy	3.70	Jerry Jeudy	3.70
WR	Xavier Legette	24.20	Xavier Legette	24.20
RB	Javonte Williams	20.80	Javonte Williams	20.80
RB	Ashton Jeanty	4.40	Ashton Jeanty	4.40
TE	Mason Taylor	6.10	Mason Taylor	6.10
W/R/T	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.20
W/R/T	Michael Mayer	2.00	Michael Mayer	2.00
DEF	Eagles	13.86	Eagles	13.86

Carried by One Guy: Xavier Legette, 24.20 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 90.17 vs. actual 85.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	27.98	Joe Flacco	27.98
WR	George Pickens	12.20	Sterling Shepard	7.50
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	6.10	George Pickens	12.20
RB	Chase Brown	14.00	Chase Brown	14.00
RB	Woody Marks	12.50	Woody Marks	12.50
TE	AJ Barner	1.90	AJ Barner	1.90
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	7.50	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	10.60
W/R/T	Matthew Golden	7.70	Matthew Golden	7.70
DEF	Jaguars	-4.21	Jaguars	-4.21

Carried by One Guy: Joe Flacco, 27.98 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Xavier Legette scored 24.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

Big Hut

124.41

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Joe Shore

129.66

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.98 points left. Optimal 157.39 vs. actual 124.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	26.04	Jalen Hurts	26.04
WR	Cooper Kupp	2.20	DeVonta Smith	35.30
WR	DeVonta Smith	35.30	Alec Pierce	14.80
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	38.80	Jeremy McNichols	6.50
RB	Emanuel Wilson	2.50	Jahmyr Gibbs	38.80
TE	Travis Kelce	8.40	Travis Kelce	8.40
W/R/T	Mike Evans	0.00	Quentin Johnston	11.00
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	11.00	Marvin Mims Jr.	16.38
DEF	Commanders	0.17	Commanders	0.17

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 38.80 points (31.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.90 points left. Optimal 167.56 vs. actual 129.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	13.66	C.J. Stroud	13.66
WR	Davante Adams	26.50	Davante Adams	26.50
WR	Rome Odunze	5.10	Chris Olave	26.80
RB	Sean Tucker	1.60	Kimani Vidal	7.50
RB	Kimani Vidal	7.50	Brashard Smith	13.10
TE	Tucker Kraft	16.80	Tucker Kraft	16.80
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	30.90	Keenan Allen	30.90
W/R/T	Drake London	8.20	Troy Franklin	12.90
DEF	Patriots	19.40	Patriots	19.40

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 30.90 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

Miller

125.59

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Niz

136.40

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.04 points left. Optimal 131.63 vs. actual 125.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	17.74	Drake Maye	23.08
WR	Jordan Addison	23.80	Jordan Addison	23.80
WR	Rashee Rice	23.20	Rashee Rice	23.20
RB	De'Von Achane	12.80	De'Von Achane	12.80
RB	Cam Skattebo	18.40	Cam Skattebo	18.40
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.80	Dallas Goedert	4.80
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	4.50	Isaiah Davis	5.20
W/R/T	RJ Harvey	7.20	RJ Harvey	7.20
DEF	Chiefs	13.15	Chiefs	13.15

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Addison, 23.80 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bo Nix scored 39.96; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.00 points left. Optimal 160.40 vs. actual 136.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	39.96	Bo Nix	39.96
WR	DJ Moore	8.20	DJ Moore	8.20
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.60
RB	Nick Chubb	2.10	Josh Jacobs	18.80
RB	Tony Pollard	12.10	Tony Pollard	12.10
TE	Zach Ertz	12.70	Zach Ertz	12.70
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	18.80	Hollywood Brown	9.40
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	9.40	Travis Hunter	26.10
DEF	Lions	12.54	Lions	12.54

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 39.96 points (29.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 14 – 20, 2025

Adam

112.33

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

157.09

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.20 points left. Optimal 129.53 vs. actual 112.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	4.68	Caleb Williams	4.68
WR	DK Metcalf	8.00	DK Metcalf	8.00
WR	Elic Ayomanor	4.90	Elic Ayomanor	4.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	41.10	Christian McCaffrey	41.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	34.20	Jonathan Taylor	34.20
TE	Darren Waller	0.00	T.J. Hockenson	10.30
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	2.50	Bam Knight	9.40
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.80	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.80
DEF	Packers	9.15	Packers	9.15

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 41.10 points (36.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.36 points left. Optimal 165.45 vs. actual 157.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	26.24	Justin Herbert	29.90
WR	A.J. Brown	30.10	A.J. Brown	30.10
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	20.80	Michael Pittman Jr.	20.80
RB	Chuba Hubbard	7.50	Chuba Hubbard	7.50
RB	Quinshon Judkins	26.40	Quinshon Judkins	26.40
TE	Theo Johnson	15.60	Theo Johnson	15.60
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	3.40	Van Jefferson	8.10
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	12.40	Isiah Pacheco	12.40
DEF	Bears	14.65	Bears	14.65

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 30.10 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–4	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–4	5.000	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Kev	3–4	3.462	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Demich	2–5	2.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	7–0	5.462	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	3–4	3.462	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	4–3	5.385	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Nevans	4–3	3.462	+1.5	+0.115	2 / 1
Josh	5–2	2.923	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	1–6	1.308	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	2–5	2.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	5–2	4.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	3–4	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	4–3	3.846	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7