2025 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 9 – 15, 2025

j-mart

87.60

Niz

168.22

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.58 points left. Optimal 109.18 vs. actual 87.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	0.00	Sam Darnold	11.34
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.10	CeeDee Lamb	19.10
WR	Romeo Doubs	5.60	Rashid Shaheed	15.84
RB	David Montgomery	9.20	David Montgomery	9.20
RB	Breece Hall	5.70	Breece Hall	5.70
TE	Brock Bowers	8.80	Brock Bowers	8.80
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	7.00	Juwan Johnson	7.00
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	8.88	Jaylen Warren	8.88
DEF	Ravens	23.32	Ravens	23.32

Carried by One Guy: Ravens, 23.32 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.70 points left. Optimal 186.92 vs. actual 168.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	31.08	Bo Nix	31.08
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	43.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	43.40
WR	Khalil Shakir	11.74	Khalil Shakir	11.74
RB	Josh Jacobs	23.20	Josh Jacobs	23.20
RB	Tony Pollard	20.20	Tony Pollard	20.20
TE	Zach Ertz	0.00	Dalton Kincaid	6.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	22.90	DJ Moore	22.90
W/R/T	Dalton Kincaid	6.40	Jauan Jennings	18.70
DEF	Chiefs	9.30	Chiefs	9.30

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 43.40 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 9 – 15, 2025

Fischer

101.33

Horgan

67.04

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.58 points left. Optimal 108.91 vs. actual 101.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	27.52	Jared Goff	27.52
WR	Terry McLaurin	15.90	Terry McLaurin	15.90
WR	Chris Olave	20.50	Chris Olave	20.50
RB	Omarion Hampton	7.50	Tank Bigsby	5.70
RB	Kyle Monangai	3.30	Omarion Hampton	7.50
TE	Tyler Warren	4.90	Tyler Warren	4.90
W/R/T	Davante Adams	11.10	Davante Adams	11.10
W/R/T	Jayden Higgins	1.40	Ray Davis	6.58
DEF	Texans	9.21	Texans	9.21

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 27.52 points (27.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.80 points left. Optimal 85.84 vs. actual 67.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	13.06	Patrick Mahomes	13.06
WR	A.J. Brown	12.10	A.J. Brown	12.10
WR	Zay Flowers	15.80	Zay Flowers	15.80
RB	Bam Knight	-0.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.50
RB	Quinshon Judkins	4.70	Chuba Hubbard	5.80
TE	Evan Engram	2.20	Theo Johnson	10.20
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.60
W/R/T	Devaughn Vele	11.90	Devaughn Vele	11.90
DEF	Dolphins	1.88	Dolphins	1.88

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 15.80 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 9 – 15, 2025

Miller

115.34

Big Hut

118.27

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.16 points left. Optimal 149.50 vs. actual 115.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	20.50	J.J. McCarthy	23.50
WR	Rashee Rice	12.10	Rashee Rice	12.10
WR	Puka Nacua	29.90	Puka Nacua	29.90
RB	RJ Harvey	10.50	RJ Harvey	10.50
RB	Devin Neal	10.20	Bhayshul Tuten	11.16
TE	Brenton Strange	3.60	Dallas Goedert	25.00
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	8.60	De'Von Achane	18.70
W/R/T	De'Von Achane	18.70	Adonai Mitchell	17.40
DEF	Cowboys	1.24	Cowboys	1.24

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 29.90 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Cook III scored 33.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.44 points left. Optimal 126.71 vs. actual 118.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	22.90	Jalen Hurts	22.90
WR	DeVonta Smith	7.00	DeVonta Smith	7.00
WR	Alec Pierce	2.60	Alec Pierce	2.60
RB	James Cook III	33.10	James Cook III	33.10
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	9.80	Jahmyr Gibbs	9.80
TE	Travis Kelce	14.00	Travis Kelce	14.00
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	9.60	Cooper Kupp	9.60
W/R/T	Isaiah Likely	0.00	Marvin Mims Jr.	8.44
DEF	Bears	19.27	Bears	19.27

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 33.10 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 9 – 15, 2025

Josh

105.83

Joe Shore

144.25

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.47 points left. Optimal 116.30 vs. actual 105.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.92	Matthew Stafford	22.92
WR	Nico Collins	23.50	Nico Collins	23.50
WR	Emeka Egbuka	10.40	Emeka Egbuka	10.40
RB	D'Andre Swift	22.60	Samaje Perine	5.30
RB	Kenneth Walker	2.90	D'Andre Swift	22.60
TE	Mark Andrews	3.80	Mark Andrews	3.80
W/R/T	Christian Watson	5.90	Christian Watson	5.90
W/R/T	Blake Corum	13.10	Blake Corum	13.10
DEF	49ers	0.71	Broncos	8.78

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 23.50 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.38 points left. Optimal 152.63 vs. actual 144.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	23.40	C.J. Stroud	23.40
WR	Darius Slayton	9.30	Darius Slayton	9.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	25.20	Ja'Marr Chase	25.20
RB	Derrick Henry	12.00	Derrick Henry	12.00
RB	Devin Singletary	2.82	Kimani Vidal	5.80
TE	Darren Waller	25.60	Darren Waller	25.60
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	8.60	Troy Franklin	20.80
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	20.80	Jalen Coker	14.00
DEF	Eagles	16.53	Eagles	16.53

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 25.60 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

2025 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Consolation

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup