2025 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

j-mart

115.77

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam

114.77

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.00 points left. Optimal 124.77 vs. actual 115.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	18.32	Kyler Murray	18.32
WR	CeeDee Lamb	20.00	CeeDee Lamb	20.00
WR	Xavier Worthy	0.00	Romeo Doubs	8.80
RB	Breece Hall	18.50	Breece Hall	18.50
RB	Jaylen Warren	13.90	Jaylen Warren	13.90
TE	Brock Bowers	17.30	Brock Bowers	17.30
W/R/T	David Montgomery	8.30	Jordan Mason	8.50
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	9.66	Rashid Shaheed	9.66
DEF	49ers	9.79	49ers	9.79

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 20.00 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.92 points left. Optimal 121.69 vs. actual 114.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	5.26	Tua Tagovailoa	5.26
WR	DK Metcalf	12.30	DK Metcalf	12.30
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	18.10	Marvin Harrison Jr.	18.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	23.20	Christian McCaffrey	23.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	12.80	Jonathan Taylor	12.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	4.50	T.J. Hockenson	4.50
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.60
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	7.00	Jayden Reed	13.92
DEF	Vikings	8.01	Vikings	8.01

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 23.60 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 20.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

Demich

103.20

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

117.67

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.80 points left. Optimal 120.00 vs. actual 103.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	16.78	Brock Purdy	16.78
WR	Justin Jefferson	14.80	Justin Jefferson	14.80
WR	Ladd McConkey	13.40	Ladd McConkey	13.40
RB	Zach Charbonnet	10.70	TreVeyon Henderson	11.96
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	11.96	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	14.20
TE	Jake Ferguson	7.30	Jake Ferguson	7.30
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	6.60	Hollywood Brown	19.90
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	11.80	Tetairoa McMillan	11.80
DEF	Commanders	9.86	Commanders	9.86

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 16.78 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bijan Robinson scored 26.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.62 points left. Optimal 139.29 vs. actual 117.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	22.58	Justin Fields	29.52
WR	Calvin Ridley	6.70	Wan'Dale Robinson	12.32
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.40	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.40
RB	Bijan Robinson	26.40	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.70
RB	Kaleb Johnson	3.44	Bijan Robinson	26.40
TE	Trey McBride	12.10	Trey McBride	12.10
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	17.70	Jonnu Smith	12.50
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.70	Jakobi Meyers	17.70
DEF	Steelers	2.65	Steelers	2.65

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 26.40 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

Kev

92.67

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Martin

90.49

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.98 points left. Optimal 110.65 vs. actual 92.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	7.82	Jared Goff	10.90
WR	Courtland Sutton	18.10	Courtland Sutton	18.10
WR	George Pickens	6.00	Isaac TeSlaa	8.30
RB	Saquon Barkley	18.40	Saquon Barkley	18.40
RB	Kyren Williams	13.90	Kyren Williams	13.90
TE	Evan Engram	5.10	Evan Engram	5.10
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	11.70	Stefon Diggs	11.70
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	8.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	20.60
DEF	Giants	3.65	Giants	3.65

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 18.40 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.58 points left. Optimal 103.07 vs. actual 90.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	29.36	Lamar Jackson	29.36
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	9.00	Joshua Palmer	11.10
WR	Matthew Golden	3.82	Brian Thomas Jr.	9.00
RB	Chase Brown	13.10	Chase Brown	13.10
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	5.50	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	5.50
TE	George Kittle	12.50	George Kittle	12.50
W/R/T	David Njoku	6.70	David Njoku	6.70
W/R/T	Josh Downs	3.20	Trey Benson	8.50
DEF	Texans	7.31	Texans	7.31

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 29.36 points (32.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 18.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

Big Hut

101.70

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Fischer

72.55

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 101.70 vs. actual 101.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	24.28	Jalen Hurts	24.28
WR	Mike Evans	10.10	Mike Evans	10.10
WR	DeVonta Smith	4.60	DeVonta Smith	4.60
RB	James Cook III	21.20	James Cook III	21.20
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	15.00	Jahmyr Gibbs	15.00
TE	Travis Kelce	12.70	Travis Kelce	12.70
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	3.50	Cooper Kupp	3.50
W/R/T	Marvin Mims Jr.	5.78	Marvin Mims Jr.	5.78
DEF	Chiefs	4.54	Chiefs	4.54

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 24.28 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.30 points left. Optimal 86.85 vs. actual 72.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	8.82	Joe Burrow	8.82
WR	Terry McLaurin	4.70	Terry McLaurin	4.70
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	4.60	Ja'Marr Chase	4.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	13.70	Alvin Kamara	13.70
RB	Omarion Hampton	8.10	Omarion Hampton	8.10
TE	Tyler Warren	14.90	Tyler Warren	14.90
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	8.70	Austin Ekeler	8.70
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	3.00	Dylan Sampson	17.30
DEF	Cardinals	6.03	Cardinals	6.03

Carried by One Guy: Tyler Warren, 14.90 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

Miller

116.73

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Joe Shore

141.61

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 116.73 vs. actual 116.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	20.12	Jayden Daniels	20.12
WR	Puka Nacua	25.10	Puka Nacua	25.10
WR	DeMario Douglas	8.20	DeMario Douglas	8.20
RB	De'Von Achane	16.50	De'Von Achane	16.50
RB	RJ Harvey	7.90	RJ Harvey	7.90
TE	Dallas Goedert	11.40	Dallas Goedert	11.40
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	13.90	Sam LaPorta	13.90
W/R/T	Cam Skattebo	2.90	Cam Skattebo	2.90
DEF	Packers	10.71	Packers	10.71

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 25.10 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derrick Henry scored 31.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.70 points left. Optimal 152.31 vs. actual 141.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Michael Penix Jr.	24.02	Michael Penix Jr.	24.02
WR	Davante Adams	9.10	Keenan Allen	19.80
WR	Drake London	13.50	Drake London	13.50
RB	Derrick Henry	31.20	Derrick Henry	31.20
RB	James Conner	14.40	James Conner	14.40
TE	Tucker Kraft	9.90	Tucker Kraft	9.90
W/R/T	Chris Olave	12.40	Chris Olave	12.40
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	15.70	Rome Odunze	15.70
DEF	Jaguars	11.39	Jaguars	11.39

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 31.20 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

Josh

90.61

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Niz

71.27

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.60 points left. Optimal 111.21 vs. actual 90.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	8.72	C.J. Stroud	8.72
WR	Tee Higgins	6.30	Tee Higgins	6.30
WR	Nico Collins	5.50	Cedric Tillman	16.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	9.50	D'Andre Swift	9.50
RB	Kenneth Walker	5.40	Braelon Allen	6.90
TE	Mark Andrews	1.50	Brenton Strange	9.90
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	14.80	J.K. Dobbins	14.80
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	23.60	Emeka Egbuka	23.60
DEF	Broncos	15.29	Broncos	15.29

Carried by One Guy: Emeka Egbuka, 23.60 points (26.0% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.98 points left. Optimal 92.25 vs. actual 71.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	6.84	Jordan Love	15.92
WR	DJ Moore	8.60	DJ Moore	8.60
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	8.50	Khalil Shakir	12.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	14.00	Josh Jacobs	14.00
RB	Tony Pollard	7.90	Tony Pollard	7.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	14.80	Dalton Kincaid	14.80
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	3.60	Zach Ertz	11.60
W/R/T	Travis Hunter	9.30	Travis Hunter	9.30
DEF	Ravens	-2.27	Ravens	-2.27

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dalton Kincaid, 14.80 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Emeka Egbuka scored 23.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 4 – 8, 2025

Nevans

139.38

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

120.89

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.00 points left. Optimal 171.38 vs. actual 139.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	40.76	Josh Allen	40.76
WR	Jerry Jeudy	11.60	Garrett Wilson	22.50
WR	Garrett Wilson	22.50	Keon Coleman	27.20
RB	Bucky Irving	14.50	Bucky Irving	14.50
RB	Ashton Jeanty	12.00	Ashton Jeanty	12.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	12.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	12.90
W/R/T	Xavier Legette	4.00	Javonte Williams	20.40
W/R/T	Ricky Pearsall	16.80	Ricky Pearsall	16.80
DEF	Eagles	4.32	Eagles	4.32

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 40.76 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.10 points left. Optimal 142.99 vs. actual 120.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	26.02	Justin Herbert	29.92
WR	A.J. Brown	1.80	Michael Pittman Jr.	20.00
WR	Malik Nabers	12.10	Malik Nabers	12.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.70	Aaron Jones Sr.	15.70
RB	Chuba Hubbard	17.90	Chuba Hubbard	17.90
TE	Colston Loveland	3.20	Colston Loveland	3.20
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	4.80	Isiah Pacheco	4.80
W/R/T	Zay Flowers	30.10	Zay Flowers	30.10
DEF	Patriots	9.27	Patriots	9.27

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 30.10 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 40.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	0–1	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Kev	1–0	0.308	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	0–1	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Nevans	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	0.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.846	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1

2025 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1