How the numbers work

Let N be the league size. Let B count lower scores. Let T count equal scores.

The focal team is not part of B or T. An official win has value 1. A tie has value 0.5.

all-play win rate = (B + T/2) / (N - 1)
expected wins = sum(all-play win rate)
median distance = |B + T/2 - (N - 1)/2|
luck points = +median distance in a lucky week
luck points = -median distance in an unlucky week
luck points = 0 in every other week
luck in wins = luck points / (N - 1)

Luck points count only a result that goes against the weekly median. A loss with a below-median score gets 0, whatever the opponent scored. A win with an above-median score also gets 0.

The size of the value grows with the distance of the score from the median. The calculation stores twice the luck-point value as an integer. This method keeps tied groups exact.

Career totals sum season-normalized luck in wins. The site never divides a mixed 12-team and 14-team total by one denominator.

Binary tally

A score below the weekly median earns one lucky week after an official win. A score above it earns one unlucky week after a loss.

A score equal to the median is neutral. An official tie is also neutral. Tied display ranks share the same rank.

Schedule Swap

The source team keeps each original weekly score. The selected schedule owner supplies each opponent.

If the schedule owner faced the source team, the source team faces the schedule owner. A team never faces itself.

All-Play Standings

Each weekly score receives a win against every lower score and a tie against every equal score.

Weekly awards

Robbery of the Week uses the most negative luck-points value. Get Out of Jail Free uses the most positive value.

All exact metric ties share an award. A week with no qualifying value has no award.

Everybody's Super Bowl

The metric compares an opponent score with that opponent's mean score in other weeks. Each baseline needs at least two other weeks.

Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row

The metric ranks the opponent score against teams other than the focal team and opponent. Higher percentiles mean harder opponents.

Heart Attack Club

A close game has an absolute margin of 5.00 points or less. The limit is inclusive.

Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent

The chart compares actual win-credit rate with all-play win rate. A positive gap is Paper Tiger.

A negative gap is Wasted Talent. A zero gap is Even. A sample with fewer than two completed weeks has no classification.

The Roller Coaster

The metric is the population standard deviation of weekly all-play rates. It needs two completed weeks.

Nemesis / Has Their Number

Rivalries group regular-season meetings by stable manager identity. A nemesis has positive net losses. A Has Their Number opponent has positive net wins.

The tie-breakers use net record, cumulative score margin, and stable manager ID. Postseason records stay in a separate group.

Tinker Failures

The optimizer finds the best full starting lineup from actual starters and bench players. It uses exact Yahoo eligibility tokens.

Points left is the best lineup total minus the actual starter total. An official loss is avoidable when the best lineup ties or beats the opponent's actual score.

The optimizer excludes IR and other reserve slots. It preserves negative points when a full legal lineup needs that player.

It maximizes points first. Equal totals use fewer changed player-slot assignments, then stable lexical order.

Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.

Carried by One Guy

The denominator sums positive points from actual starters. Negative scores remain in the score breakdown.

The leading player share cannot exceed 100 percent because negative scores do not reduce the denominator.

Opponent's Final Boss

This view examines actual opposing starters in official losses. It sets one positive player score to zero.

A positive swing changes the score comparison to a win. A zero swing produces a tie.

The result is a counterfactual receipt. It does not claim that one player was the sole cause of a loss.

A missing score never becomes zero. The site shows an unavailable reason for missing player evidence.

Tinker Failures needs full candidate scores and eligibility. Carried by One Guy needs reconciled starter scores.

Opponent's Final Boss needs valid opposing starter scores. Missing bench eligibility does not suppress valid starter contribution data.

The collector replaces one full season snapshot after validation. It keeps the prior snapshot when standings and completed scores disagree.

A repeated postseason period appears once. A multiweek period has no weekly player metric because its score spans multiple weeks.

The committed timestamp is the Data snapshot. A failed or unchanged fetch does not change that timestamp.