2025 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 16 – 22, 2025

j-mart

110.10

Horgan

61.78

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.36 points left. Optimal 138.46 vs. actual 110.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	0.00	Sam Darnold	19.50
WR	CeeDee Lamb	11.10	CeeDee Lamb	11.10
WR	Romeo Doubs	19.40	Romeo Doubs	19.40
RB	David Montgomery	1.40	Breece Hall	8.30
RB	Breece Hall	8.30	Jaylen Warren	32.10
TE	Brock Bowers	14.30	Brock Bowers	14.30
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	16.90	Juwan Johnson	16.90
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	32.10	Rashid Shaheed	10.26
DEF	Ravens	6.60	Ravens	6.60

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Warren, 32.10 points (29.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 57.00 points left. Optimal 118.78 vs. actual 61.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	0.00	Justin Herbert	32.20
WR	A.J. Brown	18.50	A.J. Brown	18.50
WR	Zay Flowers	21.20	Zay Flowers	21.20
RB	Bam Knight	0.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.30
RB	Quinshon Judkins	10.10	Quinshon Judkins	10.10
TE	Evan Engram	5.60	Evan Engram	5.60
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	7.20	Michael Pittman Jr.	7.20
W/R/T	Devaughn Vele	0.00	Isiah Pacheco	13.50
DEF	Dolphins	-0.82	Dolphins	-0.82

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 21.20 points (33.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 16 – 22, 2025

Nevans

103.01

Fischer

127.73

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.52 points left. Optimal 115.53 vs. actual 103.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	6.90	Josh Allen	6.90
WR	Darnell Mooney	4.40	Mike Evans	14.10
WR	Michael Wilson	13.20	Michael Wilson	13.20
RB	Javonte Williams	6.30	Javonte Williams	6.30
RB	Ashton Jeanty	33.80	Ashton Jeanty	33.80
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	18.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	18.70
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	4.20	Sean Tucker	7.02
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	7.10	Bucky Irving	7.10
DEF	Jaguars	8.41	Jaguars	8.41

Carried by One Guy: Ashton Jeanty, 33.80 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Olave scored 38.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.64 points left. Optimal 139.37 vs. actual 127.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	28.46	Jared Goff	28.46
WR	Terry McLaurin	8.30	Terry McLaurin	8.30
WR	Chris Olave	38.80	Chris Olave	38.80
RB	Omarion Hampton	16.50	Omarion Hampton	16.50
RB	Kyle Monangai	12.30	Kyle Monangai	12.30
TE	Tyler Warren	6.00	Tyler Warren	6.00
W/R/T	Kayshon Boutte	2.60	Tank Bigsby	9.70
W/R/T	Jayden Higgins	2.70	Ray Davis	7.24
DEF	Texans	12.07	Texans	12.07

Carried by One Guy: Chris Olave, 38.80 points (30.4% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 16 – 22, 2025

Kev

127.50

Niz

94.30

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 52.98 points left. Optimal 180.48 vs. actual 127.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	0.02	Dak Prescott	19.16
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.00	Stefon Diggs	24.80
WR	Courtland Sutton	20.60	Courtland Sutton	20.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	23.20	Saquon Barkley	23.20
RB	Kyren Williams	11.50	Travis Etienne Jr.	16.60
TE	George Kittle	26.50	George Kittle	26.50
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	16.60	Parker Washington	28.54
W/R/T	Harold Fannin Jr.	19.50	Harold Fannin Jr.	19.50
DEF	Seahawks	1.58	Seahawks	1.58

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 26.50 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.58 points left. Optimal 94.88 vs. actual 94.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	17.18	Bo Nix	17.18
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	9.40	Amon-Ra St. Brown	9.40
WR	Khalil Shakir	7.46	Khalil Shakir	7.46
RB	Josh Jacobs	4.80	Nick Chubb	5.20
RB	Tony Pollard	12.20	Tony Pollard	12.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	0.00	Dalton Kincaid	0.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	21.90	DJ Moore	21.90
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	18.10	Jauan Jennings	18.10
DEF	Chiefs	3.26	Buccaneers	3.44

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 21.90 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 16 – 22, 2025

Miller

152.78

Josh

106.03

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 152.78 vs. actual 152.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	25.70	Drake Maye	25.70
WR	Puka Nacua	48.50	Puka Nacua	48.50
WR	Adonai Mitchell	7.30	Adonai Mitchell	7.30
RB	De'Von Achane	18.00	De'Von Achane	18.00
RB	RJ Harvey	22.10	RJ Harvey	22.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	12.20	Dallas Goedert	12.20
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	4.60	Jordan Addison	4.60
W/R/T	Brenton Strange	14.90	Brenton Strange	14.90
DEF	Cowboys	-0.52	Cowboys	-0.52

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 48.50 points (31.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 41.90 points left. Optimal 147.93 vs. actual 106.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	32.88	Matthew Stafford	32.88
WR	Nico Collins	9.90	Tee Higgins	14.30
WR	Emeka Egbuka	5.00	Nico Collins	9.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	9.00	D'Andre Swift	9.00
RB	Blake Corum	13.10	Blake Corum	13.10
TE	Mark Andrews	4.40	Hunter Henry	15.50
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	14.30	Samaje Perine	12.10
W/R/T	Christian Watson	3.70	Kenneth Walker	27.40
DEF	49ers	13.75	49ers	13.75

Carried by One Guy: Matthew Stafford, 32.88 points (31.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Puka Nacua scored 48.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 16 – 22, 2025

Krajcik

125.76

Big Hut

141.14

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.96 points left. Optimal 173.72 vs. actual 125.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	12.70	Trevor Lawrence	31.16
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	5.20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	23.60
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	23.60	Chimere Dike	16.90
RB	Rico Dowdle	8.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	17.80
RB	Bijan Robinson	29.80	Bijan Robinson	29.80
TE	Trey McBride	6.70	AJ Barner	15.00
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	8.60	Jakobi Meyers	8.60
W/R/T	Kenny Gainwell	24.78	Kenny Gainwell	24.78
DEF	Steelers	6.08	Steelers	6.08

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 29.80 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Cook III scored 28.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.10 points left. Optimal 163.24 vs. actual 141.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	19.40	Jalen Hurts	19.40
WR	DeVonta Smith	16.20	DeVonta Smith	16.20
WR	Alec Pierce	24.60	Alec Pierce	24.60
RB	James Cook III	28.40	James Cook III	28.40
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	22.80	Jahmyr Gibbs	22.80
TE	Travis Kelce	1.60	Oronde Gadsden	1.70
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	6.90	Quentin Johnston	22.40
W/R/T	Oronde Gadsden	1.70	Emanuel Wilson	8.20
DEF	Saints	19.54	Saints	19.54

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 28.40 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 16 – 22, 2025

Adam

127.75

Joe Shore

94.69

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.50 points left. Optimal 134.25 vs. actual 127.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	30.96	Joe Burrow	30.96
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6.50	Jaylen Waddle	12.20
WR	Jaylen Waddle	12.20	Jayden Reed	7.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	34.60	Christian McCaffrey	34.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.90	Jonathan Taylor	16.90
TE	Colston Loveland	6.00	Colston Loveland	6.00
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	8.20	DK Metcalf	8.20
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	2.40	Tyler Allgeier	8.30
DEF	Bills	9.99	Bills	9.99

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 34.60 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 110.79 vs. actual 94.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	10.62	Jacoby Brissett	10.62
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	21.90	Ja'Marr Chase	21.90
WR	Jalen Coker	7.70	Jalen Coker	7.70
RB	Derrick Henry	24.80	Derrick Henry	24.80
RB	Audric Estime	6.60	Jawhar Jordan	12.00
TE	Colby Parkinson	4.10	Darren Waller	7.00
W/R/T	Michael Carter	6.50	Keenan Allen	9.40
W/R/T	Drake London	5.70	Troy Franklin	10.60
DEF	Eagles	6.77	Eagles	6.77

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 24.80 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 34.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

2025 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Consolation

Nevans lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Playoff

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup