2025 week 17 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 23 – 29, 2025

Kev

114.55

Fischer

110.60

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.50 points left. Optimal 153.05 vs. actual 114.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jaxson Dart	25.08	Jaxson Dart	25.08
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	25.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	25.80
WR	Courtland Sutton	8.00	Courtland Sutton	8.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	6.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.20
RB	Kyren Williams	16.00	Kyren Williams	16.00
TE	George Kittle	0.00	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.00
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.20	Stefon Diggs	24.10
W/R/T	Harold Fannin Jr.	11.00	Parker Washington	21.20
DEF	Seahawks	10.67	Seahawks	10.67

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 25.80 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 110.60 vs. actual 110.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	2.08	Jared Goff	2.08
WR	Terry McLaurin	11.30	Terry McLaurin	11.30
WR	Chris Olave	27.90	Chris Olave	27.90
RB	Omarion Hampton	20.00	Omarion Hampton	20.00
RB	Kyle Monangai	7.70	Kyle Monangai	7.70
TE	Tyler Warren	9.30	Tyler Warren	9.30
W/R/T	Jayden Higgins	16.80	Jayden Higgins	16.80
W/R/T	Dylan Sampson	5.70	Dylan Sampson	5.70
DEF	Texans	9.82	Texans	9.82

Carried by One Guy: Chris Olave, 27.90 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Godwin Jr. scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 23 – 29, 2025

Nevans

100.88

Niz

77.79

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.80 points left. Optimal 112.68 vs. actual 100.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.18	Josh Allen	23.18
WR	Darnell Mooney	5.50	Mike Evans	12.10
WR	Michael Wilson	19.90	Michael Wilson	19.90
RB	Javonte Williams	11.40	Javonte Williams	11.40
RB	Ashton Jeanty	9.30	Ashton Jeanty	9.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.60	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.60
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	10.40	Jerry Jeudy	10.40
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	8.30	Ricky Pearsall	13.50
DEF	Jaguars	9.30	Jaguars	9.30

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 23.18 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 77.79 vs. actual 77.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	19.48	Bo Nix	19.48
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	14.80	Amon-Ra St. Brown	14.80
WR	Khalil Shakir	10.50	Khalil Shakir	10.50
RB	Josh Jacobs	1.30	Josh Jacobs	1.30
RB	Tony Pollard	11.50	Tony Pollard	11.50
TE	Dalton Kincaid	0.00	Dalton Kincaid	0.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	1.70	DJ Moore	1.70
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	12.20	Jauan Jennings	12.20
DEF	Chiefs	6.31	Chiefs	6.31

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 19.48 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 23.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 23 – 29, 2025

Big Hut

66.98

Adam

117.74

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.30 points left. Optimal 83.28 vs. actual 66.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	8.90	Jalen Hurts	8.90
WR	DeVonta Smith	4.50	DeVonta Smith	4.50
WR	Alec Pierce	0.00	Quentin Johnston	14.80
RB	James Cook III	8.70	James Cook III	8.70
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	6.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	6.40
TE	Travis Kelce	8.60	Travis Kelce	8.60
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	1.60	Isaiah Likely	5.70
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	14.80	Oronde Gadsden	12.20
DEF	Saints	13.48	Saints	13.48

Carried by One Guy: Quentin Johnston, 14.80 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 125.74 vs. actual 117.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	22.40	Caleb Williams	25.00
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.30
WR	Jayden Reed	8.10	Jayden Reed	8.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	30.10	Christian McCaffrey	30.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.40	Jonathan Taylor	17.40
TE	Colston Loveland	21.40	Colston Loveland	21.40
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	0.70	Kareem Hunt	3.80
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.00	Tyler Allgeier	2.30
DEF	Bills	6.34	Bills	6.34

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 30.10 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 23 – 29, 2025

Krajcik

160.70

Joe Shore

118.51

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.72 points left. Optimal 191.42 vs. actual 160.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	19.44	Trevor Lawrence	23.12
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	24.30	Wan'Dale Robinson	24.30
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	16.20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	16.20
RB	Rico Dowdle	9.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	27.20
RB	Bijan Robinson	41.90	Bijan Robinson	41.90
TE	Trey McBride	23.60	Trey McBride	23.60
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	7.90	AJ Barner	13.30
W/R/T	Kenny Gainwell	7.26	Chimere Dike	11.00
DEF	Steelers	10.80	Steelers	10.80

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 41.90 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.40 points left. Optimal 133.91 vs. actual 118.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	16.48	Jacoby Brissett	16.48
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	25.00	Ja'Marr Chase	25.00
WR	Drake London	1.40	Troy Franklin	5.70
RB	Derrick Henry	47.60	Derrick Henry	47.60
RB	Michael Carter	6.30	Michael Carter	6.30
TE	Darren Waller	1.00	Darren Waller	1.00
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	5.70	Audric Estime	16.80
W/R/T	Kyle Williams	5.00	Kyle Williams	5.00
DEF	Rams	10.03	Rams	10.03

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 47.60 points (40.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

2025 week 17 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Consolation

Nevans lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Playoff

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup