2025 week 14 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

j-mart

76.37

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Adam

118.59

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 52.14 points left. Optimal 128.51 vs. actual 76.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tyrod Taylor	-1.76	Sam Darnold	22.26
WR	CeeDee Lamb	20.10	CeeDee Lamb	20.10
WR	Romeo Doubs	0.14	Rashid Shaheed	20.66
RB	David Montgomery	14.30	David Montgomery	14.30
RB	Breece Hall	4.30	Jordan Mason	11.20
TE	Brock Bowers	14.60	Brock Bowers	14.60
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	7.80	Jaylen Warren	15.58
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	15.58	Xavier Worthy	8.50
DEF	Ravens	1.31	Ravens	1.31

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 20.10 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.56 points left. Optimal 120.15 vs. actual 118.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	23.36	Joe Burrow	23.36
WR	DK Metcalf	23.80	DK Metcalf	23.80
WR	Jaylen Waddle	18.10	Jaylen Waddle	18.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	9.00	Kareem Hunt	9.00
RB	Jonathan Taylor	11.40	Jonathan Taylor	11.40
TE	Colston Loveland	12.90	Colston Loveland	12.90
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	8.44	Jayden Reed	9.30
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	9.30	Isaac TeSlaa	10.00
DEF	Browns	2.29	Browns	2.29

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 23.80 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

Demich

66.03

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

116.64

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.84 points left. Optimal 72.87 vs. actual 66.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	9.04	Geno Smith	9.04
WR	Justin Jefferson	3.10	Justin Jefferson	3.10
WR	Jameson Williams	17.30	Jameson Williams	17.30
RB	Zach Charbonnet	8.60	Zach Charbonnet	8.60
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	3.20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	3.20
TE	Jake Ferguson	10.80	Jake Ferguson	10.80
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	4.40	Tre Tucker	4.40
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	2.20	Keaton Mitchell	9.04
DEF	Titans	7.39	Titans	7.39

Carried by One Guy: Jameson Williams, 17.30 points (26.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.08 points left. Optimal 125.72 vs. actual 116.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	11.08	Trevor Lawrence	19.36
WR	Jakobi Meyers	14.80	Jakobi Meyers	14.80
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	28.10	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	28.10
RB	Kenny Gainwell	17.58	Kenny Gainwell	17.58
RB	Bijan Robinson	9.40	Bijan Robinson	9.40
TE	Trey McBride	10.80	Trey McBride	10.80
W/R/T	AJ Barner	5.70	Rachaad White	6.50
W/R/T	Chimere Dike	14.18	Chimere Dike	14.18
DEF	Steelers	5.00	Steelers	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 28.10 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

Kev

158.52

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Martin

112.59

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 158.52 vs. actual 158.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	20.44	Dak Prescott	20.44
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.50
WR	Courtland Sutton	12.20	Courtland Sutton	12.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	20.20	Saquon Barkley	20.20
RB	Kyren Williams	17.70	Kyren Williams	17.70
TE	Harold Fannin Jr.	27.40	Harold Fannin Jr.	27.40
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	21.20	Travis Etienne Jr.	21.20
W/R/T	John Metchie III	7.40	John Metchie III	7.40
DEF	Seahawks	21.48	Seahawks	21.48

Carried by One Guy: Harold Fannin Jr., 27.40 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.80 points left. Optimal 113.39 vs. actual 112.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	21.06	Lamar Jackson	21.06
WR	George Pickens	8.70	George Pickens	8.70
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	11.70	Brian Thomas Jr.	11.70
RB	Chase Brown	18.50	Chase Brown	18.50
RB	Woody Marks	15.60	Woody Marks	15.60
TE	Dalton Schultz	5.20	David Njoku	7.10
W/R/T	David Njoku	7.10	Jalen Nailor	6.00
W/R/T	Josh Downs	6.30	Josh Downs	6.30
DEF	Vikings	18.43	Vikings	18.43

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 21.06 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

Big Hut

89.22

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

84.28

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.74 points left. Optimal 98.96 vs. actual 89.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	0.40	Jalen Hurts	0.40
WR	DeVonta Smith	7.70	DeVonta Smith	7.70
WR	Alec Pierce	13.00	Alec Pierce	13.00
RB	James Cook III	11.10	James Cook III	11.10
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	37.00	Jahmyr Gibbs	37.00
TE	Travis Kelce	1.80	Cade Otton	4.90
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	11.50	Cooper Kupp	11.50
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	2.80	Marvin Mims Jr.	9.44
DEF	Packers	3.92	Packers	3.92

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 37.00 points (41.5% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.80 points left. Optimal 88.08 vs. actual 84.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	18.16	Jared Goff	18.16
WR	Terry McLaurin	7.10	Davante Adams	6.90
WR	Chris Olave	6.00	Terry McLaurin	7.10
RB	Omarion Hampton	14.70	Omarion Hampton	14.70
RB	Kyle Monangai	8.70	Kyle Monangai	8.70
TE	Tyler Warren	3.70	Tyler Warren	3.70
W/R/T	Davante Adams	6.90	Jayden Higgins	6.40
W/R/T	Jayden Higgins	6.40	Dylan Sampson	9.80
DEF	Texans	12.62	Texans	12.62

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 18.16 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jahmyr Gibbs scored 37.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

Miller

114.69

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

76.94

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.90 points left. Optimal 131.59 vs. actual 114.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	2.72	Jayden Daniels	2.72
WR	Rashee Rice	7.40	Rashee Rice	7.40
WR	Puka Nacua	37.70	Puka Nacua	37.70
RB	De'Von Achane	17.50	De'Von Achane	17.50
RB	RJ Harvey	22.00	RJ Harvey	22.00
TE	Brenton Strange	5.70	Dallas Goedert	15.80
W/R/T	Adonai Mitchell	3.40	Jordan Addison	10.20
W/R/T	Devin Neal	15.40	Devin Neal	15.40
DEF	Commanders	2.87	Commanders	2.87

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 37.70 points (32.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.35 points left. Optimal 94.29 vs. actual 76.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	19.04	Jacoby Brissett	19.04
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	10.20	Ja'Marr Chase	10.20
WR	Luther Burden III	11.00	Luther Burden III	11.00
RB	Derrick Henry	11.20	Derrick Henry	11.20
RB	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	5.20	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	5.20
TE	Darren Waller	2.70	Darren Waller	2.70
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	5.20	Keenan Allen	5.20
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	4.10	Kimani Vidal	14.62
DEF	Rams	8.30	Eagles	15.13

Carried by One Guy: Jacoby Brissett, 19.04 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

Josh

126.71

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Niz

111.10

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.58 points left. Optimal 153.29 vs. actual 126.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	23.24	Matthew Stafford	23.24
WR	Christian Watson	24.90	Tee Higgins	27.20
WR	Emeka Egbuka	3.50	Christian Watson	24.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	11.20	Samaje Perine	5.78
RB	Kenneth Walker	3.80	D'Andre Swift	11.20
TE	Mark Andrews	1.90	Mark Andrews	1.90
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	27.20	Nico Collins	18.10
W/R/T	Nico Collins	18.10	Blake Corum	28.10
DEF	Broncos	12.87	Broncos	12.87

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 27.20 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.18 points left. Optimal 118.28 vs. actual 111.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	15.98	Jordan Love	19.26
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	15.20
WR	Khalil Shakir	9.78	Khalil Shakir	9.78
RB	Josh Jacobs	17.20	Josh Jacobs	17.20
RB	Tony Pollard	30.10	Tony Pollard	30.10
TE	Zach Ertz	2.10	Zach Ertz	2.10
W/R/T	DJ Moore	0.60	Hollywood Brown	4.50
W/R/T	Dalton Kincaid	14.10	Dalton Kincaid	14.10
DEF	Chiefs	6.04	Chiefs	6.04

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 30.10 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tee Higgins scored 27.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 2 – 8, 2025

Nevans

159.12

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

106.48

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.60 points left. Optimal 170.72 vs. actual 159.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	37.84	Josh Allen	37.84
WR	Darnell Mooney	1.60	Jerry Jeudy	16.60
WR	Michael Wilson	39.20	Michael Wilson	39.20
RB	Javonte Williams	14.70	Javonte Williams	14.70
RB	Ashton Jeanty	5.80	Sean Tucker	8.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.00
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	16.60	Bucky Irving	16.10
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	16.10	Mason Taylor	10.10
DEF	Jaguars	12.28	Jaguars	12.28

Carried by One Guy: Michael Wilson, 39.20 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.06 points left. Optimal 113.54 vs. actual 106.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	6.30	Justin Herbert	12.16
WR	A.J. Brown	18.00	A.J. Brown	18.00
WR	Zay Flowers	22.60	Zay Flowers	22.60
RB	Bam Knight	6.40	Aaron Jones Sr.	7.60
RB	Quinshon Judkins	9.40	Quinshon Judkins	9.40
TE	Evan Engram	2.80	Evan Engram	2.80
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.90	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.90
W/R/T	Devaughn Vele	7.00	Devaughn Vele	7.00
DEF	Dolphins	17.08	Dolphins	17.08

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 22.60 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–8	5.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	9–5	9.308	-3.5	-0.269	2 / 3
Kev	6–8	8.308	-14.0	-1.077	1 / 5
Demich	3–11	5.000	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Krajcik	13–1	10.538	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	7–7	7.462	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Adam	10–4	10.462	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Nevans	7–7	6.615	+4.5	+0.346	3 / 2
Josh	9–5	6.846	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	3–11	3.538	+2.5	+0.192	3 / 2
Fischer	4–10	5.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	9–5	7.308	+5.5	+0.423	3 / 2
Niz	6–8	5.000	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	6–8	6.769	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2

2025 week 14 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 14