2025 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

j-mart

66.21

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

127.23

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 71.21 vs. actual 66.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	8.66	Geno Smith	8.66
WR	Rashid Shaheed	7.22	Rashid Shaheed	7.22
WR	Xavier Worthy	10.60	Xavier Worthy	10.60
RB	David Montgomery	8.10	David Montgomery	8.10
RB	Breece Hall	5.90	Breece Hall	5.90
TE	Cade Otton	10.10	Cade Otton	10.10
W/R/T	Hassan Haskins	3.30	Romeo Doubs	10.78
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	10.78	Jaylen Warren	8.30
DEF	Browns	1.55	Browns	1.55

Carried by One Guy: Romeo Doubs, 10.78 points (16.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.60 points left. Optimal 137.83 vs. actual 127.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Mac Jones	13.18	Mac Jones	13.18
WR	Keenan Allen	6.70	Keenan Allen	6.70
WR	Davante Adams	7.90	Davante Adams	7.90
RB	Derrick Henry	16.00	Derrick Henry	16.00
RB	Kimani Vidal	24.80	Kimani Vidal	24.80
TE	Tucker Kraft	12.30	Tucker Kraft	12.30
W/R/T	Drake London	33.80	Drake London	33.80
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	5.20	Chris Olave	15.80
DEF	Patriots	7.35	Patriots	7.35

Carried by One Guy: Drake London, 33.80 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

Miller

167.58

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev

91.86

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 173.18 vs. actual 167.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	21.64	Drake Maye	27.24
WR	Puka Nacua	4.80	Puka Nacua	4.80
WR	Luther Burden III	9.10	Luther Burden III	9.10
RB	De'Von Achane	33.00	De'Von Achane	33.00
RB	Cam Skattebo	31.00	Cam Skattebo	31.00
TE	Dallas Goedert	28.00	Dallas Goedert	28.00
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	16.50	Sam LaPorta	16.50
W/R/T	RJ Harvey	6.50	RJ Harvey	6.50
DEF	Raiders	17.04	Raiders	17.04

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 33.00 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.38 points left. Optimal 110.24 vs. actual 91.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	22.34	Jaxson Dart	23.60
WR	Courtland Sutton	2.70	Alec Pierce	6.80
WR	Alec Pierce	6.80	Malik Washington	10.52
RB	Saquon Barkley	8.70	Saquon Barkley	8.70
RB	Kyren Williams	16.70	Kyren Williams	16.70
TE	Evan Engram	9.90	Evan Engram	9.90
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	5.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	9.50
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	9.50	Harold Fannin Jr.	15.10
DEF	Chargers	9.42	Chargers	9.42

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 22.34 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

Krajcik

186.08

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam

129.26

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.60 points left. Optimal 203.68 vs. actual 186.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	19.64	Baker Mayfield	19.64
WR	Jakobi Meyers	7.90	Jakobi Meyers	7.90
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	32.20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	32.20
RB	Rico Dowdle	35.90	Rico Dowdle	35.90
RB	Bijan Robinson	37.80	Bijan Robinson	37.80
TE	Trey McBride	21.20	Trey McBride	21.20
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	2.80	Wan'Dale Robinson	20.40
W/R/T	Rachaad White	17.60	Rachaad White	17.60
DEF	Steelers	11.04	Steelers	11.04

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 37.80 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 141.86 vs. actual 129.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	19.88	Caleb Williams	19.88
WR	Jaylen Waddle	15.82	DK Metcalf	19.50
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.20	Jaylen Waddle	15.82
RB	Christian McCaffrey	24.10	Christian McCaffrey	24.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	25.70	Jonathan Taylor	25.70
TE	Darren Waller	9.20	Darren Waller	9.20
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	5.40	Tyler Allgeier	10.80
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	19.50	Bam Knight	12.40
DEF	Packers	4.46	Packers	4.46

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 25.70 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

Nevans

65.10

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

87.59

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 71.80 vs. actual 65.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	15.40	Bryce Young	18.46
WR	Jerry Jeudy	9.30	Jerry Jeudy	9.30
WR	Garrett Wilson	4.30	Garrett Wilson	4.30
RB	Javonte Williams	8.40	Javonte Williams	8.40
RB	Ashton Jeanty	16.60	Ashton Jeanty	16.60
TE	Mason Taylor	1.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.80
W/R/T	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.80	Brian Robinson	4.84
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	4.10	Keon Coleman	4.10
DEF	Eagles	1.00	Eagles	1.00

Carried by One Guy: Ashton Jeanty, 16.60 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: D'Andre Swift scored 27.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.14 points left. Optimal 100.73 vs. actual 87.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	9.34	Daniel Jones	22.48
WR	Tee Higgins	11.20	Tee Higgins	11.20
WR	Emeka Egbuka	4.40	Emeka Egbuka	4.40
RB	J.K. Dobbins	4.00	J.K. Dobbins	4.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	4.70	Kenneth Walker	4.70
TE	Mark Andrews	6.60	Mark Andrews	6.60
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	5.70	Hunter Henry	5.70
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	27.50	D'Andre Swift	27.50
DEF	Broncos	14.15	Broncos	14.15

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 27.50 points (31.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

Martin

106.74

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

119.65

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.52 points left. Optimal 132.26 vs. actual 106.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dillon Gabriel	8.84	Joe Flacco	18.76
WR	George Pickens	33.80	George Pickens	33.80
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	23.00	Brian Thomas Jr.	23.00
RB	Chase Brown	8.90	Michael Carter	8.40
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	0.60	Chase Brown	8.90
TE	David Njoku	5.80	David Njoku	5.80
W/R/T	Michael Carter	8.40	Josh Downs	16.20
W/R/T	Matthew Golden	13.20	Matthew Golden	13.20
DEF	Jaguars	4.20	Jaguars	4.20

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 33.80 points (31.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kayshon Boutte scored 26.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.90 points left. Optimal 123.55 vs. actual 119.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	20.00	Sam Darnold	20.00
WR	Kayshon Boutte	26.30	Kayshon Boutte	26.30
WR	Ryan Flournoy	6.30	Ryan Flournoy	6.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	12.60	Alvin Kamara	12.60
RB	Kendre Miller	4.20	Kendre Miller	4.20
TE	Tyler Warren	18.30	Tyler Warren	18.30
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	1.50	Ja'Marr Chase	25.10
W/R/T	Ja'Marr Chase	25.10	Kyle Monangai	5.40
DEF	Colts	5.35	Colts	5.35

Carried by One Guy: Kayshon Boutte, 26.30 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

Demich

122.08

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Niz

100.66

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 127.38 vs. actual 122.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	19.22	Trevor Lawrence	19.22
WR	Ladd McConkey	25.00	Ladd McConkey	25.00
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	17.90	Tetairoa McMillan	17.90
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	4.60	Ray Davis	9.90
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5.80	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	5.80
TE	Jake Ferguson	12.30	Jake Ferguson	12.30
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	18.60	Jameson Williams	18.60
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	12.00	Tre Tucker	12.00
DEF	Titans	6.66	Titans	6.66

Carried by One Guy: Ladd McConkey, 25.00 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.40 points left. Optimal 121.06 vs. actual 100.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	13.36	Jordan Love	14.96
WR	DJ Moore	8.20	DJ Moore	8.20
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.70	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	32.00	Josh Jacobs	32.00
RB	Tony Pollard	6.70	Tony Pollard	6.70
TE	Zach Ertz	16.30	Zach Ertz	16.30
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	1.70	Hollywood Brown	20.50
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	6.30	Khalil Shakir	6.30
DEF	Lions	2.40	Lions	2.40

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 32.00 points (31.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ladd McConkey scored 25.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 7 – 13, 2025

Big Hut

97.58

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

118.03

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 97.58 vs. actual 97.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	20.62	Jalen Hurts	20.62
WR	Cooper Kupp	12.00	Cooper Kupp	12.00
WR	DeVonta Smith	8.90	DeVonta Smith	8.90
RB	James Cook III	8.70	James Cook III	8.70
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	7.50	Jahmyr Gibbs	7.50
TE	Travis Kelce	13.80	Travis Kelce	13.80
W/R/T	Chig Okonkwo	10.60	Chig Okonkwo	10.60
W/R/T	Marvin Mims Jr.	8.10	Marvin Mims Jr.	8.10
DEF	Commanders	7.36	Commanders	7.36

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 20.62 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 31.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 128.83 vs. actual 118.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	31.48	Patrick Mahomes	31.48
WR	A.J. Brown	14.00	A.J. Brown	14.00
WR	Zay Flowers	8.60	Zay Flowers	8.60
RB	Isiah Pacheco	6.10	Justice Hill	9.40
RB	Quinshon Judkins	3.60	Isiah Pacheco	6.10
TE	Jake Tonges	11.80	Jake Tonges	11.80
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	21.20	Kendrick Bourne	21.20
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	4.00	Tyjae Spears	9.00
DEF	Rams	17.25	Rams	17.25

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 31.48 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–4	1.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	3–3	4.385	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Kev	3–3	3.385	-6.5	-0.500	1 / 2
Demich	2–4	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	6–0	4.538	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	3–3	2.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	4–2	5.000	-5.0	-0.385	0 / 2
Nevans	3–3	3.231	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Josh	4–2	2.615	+7.5	+0.577	2 / 1
Martin	1–5	1.308	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Fischer	2–4	2.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	4–2	3.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–4	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	3–3	2.846	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6