2025 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

j-mart

168.62

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Demich

97.52

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 174.72 vs. actual 168.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	29.20	Sam Darnold	29.20
WR	CeeDee Lamb	15.50	CeeDee Lamb	15.50
WR	Romeo Doubs	16.22	Romeo Doubs	16.22
RB	David Montgomery	11.00	David Montgomery	11.00
RB	Jaylen Warren	16.90	Jaylen Warren	16.90
TE	Brock Bowers	45.30	Brock Bowers	45.30
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	12.56	Juwan Johnson	12.10
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	6.00	Rashid Shaheed	12.56
DEF	Ravens	15.94	Ravens	15.94

Carried by One Guy: Brock Bowers, 45.30 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.00 points left. Optimal 119.52 vs. actual 97.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	26.26	Geno Smith	26.26
WR	Justin Jefferson	16.70	Justin Jefferson	16.70
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	8.60	Jameson Williams	16.60
RB	Zach Charbonnet	5.60	Zach Charbonnet	5.60
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	12.70	TreVeyon Henderson	12.70
TE	Jake Ferguson	8.00	Jake Ferguson	8.00
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	6.80	Ladd McConkey	9.60
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	9.60	Tory Horton	20.80
DEF	49ers	3.26	49ers	3.26

Carried by One Guy: Geno Smith, 26.26 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

Kev

116.52

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

109.48

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.84 points left. Optimal 128.36 vs. actual 116.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	15.40	Jaxson Dart	27.24
WR	Courtland Sutton	10.00	Courtland Sutton	10.00
WR	Malik Washington	7.86	Malik Washington	7.86
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	16.50	Travis Etienne Jr.	16.50
RB	Kyren Williams	19.40	Kyren Williams	19.40
TE	George Kittle	6.90	George Kittle	6.90
W/R/T	Stefon Diggs	12.80	Stefon Diggs	12.80
W/R/T	Parker Washington	17.08	Parker Washington	17.08
DEF	Seahawks	10.58	Seahawks	10.58

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 19.40 points (16.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 112.18 vs. actual 109.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	24.84	Jacoby Brissett	24.84
WR	Alec Pierce	19.50	Alec Pierce	19.50
WR	Calvin Austin III	10.60	Calvin Austin III	10.60
RB	James Cook III	15.50	James Cook III	15.50
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	5.80	Jahmyr Gibbs	5.80
TE	Travis Kelce	12.60	Travis Kelce	12.60
W/R/T	Jeremy McNichols	0.00	Quentin Johnston	15.30
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	15.30	Emanuel Wilson	2.70
DEF	Bears	5.34	Bears	5.34

Carried by One Guy: Jacoby Brissett, 24.84 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyren Williams scored 19.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

Krajcik

144.01

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

107.14

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 144.01 vs. actual 144.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	8.54	Tua Tagovailoa	8.54
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	13.60	Wan'Dale Robinson	13.60
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.00	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.00
RB	Rico Dowdle	30.10	Rico Dowdle	30.10
RB	Bijan Robinson	17.60	Bijan Robinson	17.60
TE	Trey McBride	16.50	Trey McBride	16.50
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	6.30	Jakobi Meyers	6.30
W/R/T	Kenny Gainwell	7.40	Kenny Gainwell	7.40
DEF	Steelers	19.97	Steelers	19.97

Carried by One Guy: Rico Dowdle, 30.10 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.27 points left. Optimal 136.41 vs. actual 107.14.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	16.08	Matthew Stafford	26.84
WR	Tee Higgins	35.10	Tee Higgins	35.10
WR	Christian Watson	7.80	Christian Watson	7.80
RB	J.K. Dobbins	6.90	J.K. Dobbins	6.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	8.10	Kenneth Walker	8.10
TE	Hunter Henry	9.10	Hunter Henry	9.10
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	2.50	Mark Andrews	16.60
W/R/T	Nico Collins	14.50	Nico Collins	14.50
DEF	Broncos	7.06	Texans	11.47

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 35.10 points (32.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

Miller

137.81

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin

115.51

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.88 points left. Optimal 141.69 vs. actual 137.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	16.36	Drake Maye	16.36
WR	Rashee Rice	18.60	Rashee Rice	18.60
WR	Puka Nacua	22.80	Puka Nacua	22.80
RB	De'Von Achane	16.60	De'Von Achane	16.60
RB	RJ Harvey	17.68	RJ Harvey	17.68
TE	Sam LaPorta	21.70	Sam LaPorta	21.70
W/R/T	Dyami Brown	6.82	Jordan Addison	8.40
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	8.40	Bhayshul Tuten	10.70
DEF	Lions	8.85	Lions	8.85

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 22.80 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.34 points left. Optimal 122.85 vs. actual 115.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	25.56	Joe Flacco	32.70
WR	George Pickens	13.90	George Pickens	13.90
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	8.50	Brian Thomas Jr.	8.50
RB	Chase Brown	19.20	Chase Brown	19.20
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	6.70	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	6.70
TE	Dalton Schultz	13.70	Dalton Schultz	13.70
W/R/T	Josh Downs	16.16	Josh Downs	16.16
W/R/T	Woody Marks	2.70	Matthew Golden	2.90
DEF	Bengals	9.09	Bengals	9.09

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 25.56 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Puka Nacua scored 22.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

Nevans

92.71

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Fischer

90.75

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 92.71 vs. actual 92.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	28.82	Josh Allen	28.82
WR	Rashod Bateman	9.30	Rashod Bateman	9.30
WR	Xavier Legette	3.20	Xavier Legette	3.20
RB	Javonte Williams	7.30	Javonte Williams	7.30
RB	Ashton Jeanty	19.90	Ashton Jeanty	19.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.80	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.80
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	9.10	Michael Wilson	9.10
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	3.70	Keon Coleman	3.70
DEF	Jaguars	3.59	Jaguars	3.59

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 28.82 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 90.75 vs. actual 90.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	19.36	Jared Goff	19.36
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	19.10	Ja'Marr Chase	19.10
WR	Kayshon Boutte	0.00	Kayshon Boutte	0.00
RB	Samaje Perine	1.76	Samaje Perine	1.76
RB	Kyle Monangai	24.80	Kyle Monangai	24.80
TE	Tyler Warren	7.60	Tyler Warren	7.60
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	0.70	Alvin Kamara	0.70
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	11.20	Darius Slayton	11.20
DEF	Colts	6.23	Colts	6.23

Carried by One Guy: Kyle Monangai, 24.80 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 28.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

Adam

146.94

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

124.91

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.00 points left. Optimal 180.94 vs. actual 146.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	38.70	Caleb Williams	38.70
WR	DK Metcalf	2.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.00
WR	Jaylen Waddle	14.20	Jaylen Waddle	14.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	36.30	Christian McCaffrey	36.30
RB	Jonathan Taylor	7.70	Kareem Hunt	12.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	9.10	T.J. Hockenson	9.10
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.00	Marvin Harrison Jr.	22.60
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	22.60	Colston Loveland	31.80
DEF	Packers	5.74	Packers	5.74

Carried by One Guy: Caleb Williams, 38.70 points (26.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 141.01 vs. actual 124.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	21.20	Trevor Lawrence	21.20
WR	Drake London	40.80	Drake London	40.80
WR	Rome Odunze	0.00	Troy Franklin	8.30
RB	Derrick Henry	15.10	Derrick Henry	15.10
RB	Kimani Vidal	3.00	Kimani Vidal	3.00
TE	Tucker Kraft	4.00	Oronde Gadsden	11.80
W/R/T	Davante Adams	23.00	Davante Adams	23.00
W/R/T	Chris Olave	8.70	Chris Olave	8.70
DEF	Rams	9.11	Rams	9.11

Carried by One Guy: Drake London, 40.80 points (32.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Caleb Williams scored 38.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 28 – Nov 3, 2025

Niz

110.81

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

103.31

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.60 points left. Optimal 140.41 vs. actual 110.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	18.52	Bo Nix	18.52
WR	DJ Moore	22.98	DJ Moore	22.98
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.70	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	20.00	Josh Jacobs	20.00
RB	Tony Pollard	7.80	Tony Pollard	7.80
TE	Zach Ertz	8.60	Dalton Kincaid	24.10
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	11.58	Jauan Jennings	14.10
W/R/T	Travis Hunter	0.00	Khalil Shakir	11.58
DEF	Chiefs	2.63	Chiefs	2.63

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 22.98 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.60 points left. Optimal 122.91 vs. actual 103.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	10.50	Justin Herbert	27.70
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.50
WR	Zay Flowers	11.40	Zay Flowers	11.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.80
RB	Tyjae Spears	9.20	Tyjae Spears	9.20
TE	Theo Johnson	11.70	Theo Johnson	11.70
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	6.60	Isaiah Likely	9.00
W/R/T	Chimere Dike	12.80	Chimere Dike	12.80
DEF	Chargers	6.81	Chargers	6.81

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 22.50 points (21.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DJ Moore scored 22.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–4	4.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	5–4	6.692	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Kev	4–5	4.615	-7.0	-0.538	1 / 3
Demich	2–7	2.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	8–1	6.308	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	4–5	4.692	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	5–4	7.077	-8.5	-0.654	0 / 3
Nevans	5–4	3.846	+7.0	+0.538	3 / 1
Josh	5–4	3.462	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	2–7	2.231	+2.5	+0.192	2 / 1
Fischer	2–7	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	6–3	5.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Niz	5–4	3.615	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	5–4	4.769	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9