2025 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

j-mart

83.07

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

165.21

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.80 points left. Optimal 93.87 vs. actual 83.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	4.26	Sam Darnold	4.26
WR	Romeo Doubs	9.30	CeeDee Lamb	17.60
WR	Xavier Worthy	5.50	Romeo Doubs	9.30
RB	Breece Hall	8.40	Breece Hall	8.40
RB	Jaylen Warren	8.70	Jaylen Warren	8.70
TE	Brock Bowers	14.20	Brock Bowers	14.20
W/R/T	David Montgomery	4.70	Jordan Mason	10.50
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	17.60	Ollie Gordon II	10.50
DEF	Ravens	10.41	Ravens	10.41

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 17.60 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.38 points left. Optimal 187.59 vs. actual 165.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	16.82	Baker Mayfield	16.82
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	7.60	Jakobi Meyers	11.40
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	22.60	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	22.60
RB	Rico Dowdle	15.00	Rico Dowdle	15.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	32.30	Bijan Robinson	32.30
TE	Trey McBride	29.50	Trey McBride	29.50
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	11.40	Kenny Gainwell	29.98
W/R/T	Rachaad White	8.20	Rachaad White	8.20
DEF	Steelers	21.79	Steelers	21.79

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 32.30 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

Demich

140.81

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

128.33

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.86 points left. Optimal 157.67 vs. actual 140.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	12.92	Brock Purdy	19.30
WR	Justin Jefferson	11.10	Justin Jefferson	11.10
WR	Ladd McConkey	4.30	Tre Tucker	14.78
RB	Zach Charbonnet	6.70	Zach Charbonnet	6.70
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	32.30	TreVeyon Henderson	32.30
TE	Jake Ferguson	11.60	Jake Ferguson	11.60
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	19.70	Jameson Williams	19.70
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	35.00	Tetairoa McMillan	35.00
DEF	Bears	7.19	Bears	7.19

Carried by One Guy: Tetairoa McMillan, 35.00 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.60 points left. Optimal 166.93 vs. actual 128.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	44.68	Josh Allen	44.68
WR	Michael Wilson	35.50	Jerry Jeudy	5.10
WR	Ricky Pearsall	1.00	Michael Wilson	35.50
RB	Javonte Williams	10.30	Javonte Williams	10.30
RB	Ashton Jeanty	9.40	Ashton Jeanty	9.40
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	3.40	Mason Taylor	7.00
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	5.10	Darnell Mooney	6.40
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	6.40	Sean Tucker	36.00
DEF	Jaguars	12.55	Jaguars	12.55

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 44.68 points (34.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tetairoa McMillan scored 35.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

Big Hut

101.20

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

129.79

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.42 points left. Optimal 116.62 vs. actual 101.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	14.50	Jalen Hurts	14.50
WR	Cooper Kupp	5.30	Cooper Kupp	5.30
WR	DeVonta Smith	1.80	Marvin Mims Jr.	3.22
RB	James Cook III	20.40	James Cook III	20.40
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	21.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	21.60
TE	Travis Kelce	24.10	Travis Kelce	24.10
W/R/T	Cade Otton	4.80	Jeremy McNichols	4.90
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	0.00	Emanuel Wilson	13.90
DEF	Packers	8.70	Packers	8.70

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 24.10 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.11 points left. Optimal 138.90 vs. actual 129.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	13.20	Matthew Stafford	13.20
WR	Tee Higgins	15.30	Tee Higgins	15.30
WR	Nico Collins	24.20	Nico Collins	24.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	9.00	D'Andre Swift	9.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	20.10	Kenneth Walker	20.10
TE	Hunter Henry	8.50	Mark Andrews	15.70
W/R/T	Christian Watson	20.60	Christian Watson	20.60
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	9.00	Emeka Egbuka	9.00
DEF	Texans	9.89	Broncos	11.80

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 24.20 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

Martin

105.47

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

80.97

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.34 points left. Optimal 119.81 vs. actual 105.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	4.72	Joe Flacco	9.86
WR	George Pickens	31.40	Sterling Shepard	10.10
WR	Jalen Nailor	2.60	George Pickens	31.40
RB	Chase Brown	18.70	Chase Brown	18.70
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	17.90	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	17.90
TE	Dalton Schultz	11.10	Dalton Schultz	11.10
W/R/T	David Njoku	1.70	Matthew Golden	3.40
W/R/T	Woody Marks	6.10	Woody Marks	6.10
DEF	Cowboys	11.25	Cowboys	11.25

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 31.40 points (29.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.60 points left. Optimal 99.57 vs. actual 80.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	3.34	Patrick Mahomes	13.34
WR	A.J. Brown	11.90	A.J. Brown	11.90
WR	Zay Flowers	11.30	Zay Flowers	11.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.10
RB	Quinshon Judkins	5.90	Bam Knight	14.50
TE	Theo Johnson	6.60	Theo Johnson	6.60
W/R/T	Mack Hollins	10.40	Mack Hollins	10.40
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	22.20	Greg Dortch	22.20
DEF	Chargers	-1.77	Chargers	-1.77

Carried by One Guy: Greg Dortch, 22.20 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: George Pickens scored 31.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

Miller

93.47

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Fischer

54.11

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.70 points left. Optimal 103.17 vs. actual 93.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	15.44	Drake Maye	15.44
WR	Jordan Addison	10.00	Jordan Addison	10.00
WR	Puka Nacua	14.30	Puka Nacua	14.30
RB	De'Von Achane	23.50	De'Von Achane	23.50
RB	RJ Harvey	8.00	RJ Harvey	8.00
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.40	Dallas Goedert	4.40
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	3.70	Rashee Rice	9.80
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	9.80	Bhayshul Tuten	13.40
DEF	Falcons	4.33	Falcons	4.33

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 23.50 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 54.11 vs. actual 54.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	12.10	Jared Goff	12.10
WR	Jayden Higgins	9.50	Jayden Higgins	9.50
WR	Kyle Williams	0.00	Kyle Williams	0.00
RB	Dylan Sampson	2.86	Dylan Sampson	2.86
RB	Kyle Monangai	10.70	Kyle Monangai	10.70
TE	Noah Fant	6.60	Noah Fant	6.60
W/R/T	Davante Adams	7.10	Davante Adams	7.10
W/R/T	Tez Johnson	1.60	Tez Johnson	1.60
DEF	Lions	3.65	Lions	3.65

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 12.10 points (22.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

Kev

132.52

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

107.46

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.68 points left. Optimal 136.20 vs. actual 132.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	24.32	Dak Prescott	24.32
WR	Stefon Diggs	21.50	Stefon Diggs	21.50
WR	Courtland Sutton	9.90	Courtland Sutton	9.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	10.00	Saquon Barkley	10.00
RB	Kyren Williams	16.60	Kyren Williams	16.60
TE	George Kittle	24.70	George Kittle	24.70
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	19.30	Travis Etienne Jr.	19.30
W/R/T	Parker Washington	4.00	Malik Washington	7.68
DEF	Seahawks	2.20	Seahawks	2.20

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 24.70 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.26 points left. Optimal 127.72 vs. actual 107.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jacoby Brissett	23.88	Jacoby Brissett	23.88
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	6.00	Keenan Allen	9.30
WR	Rome Odunze	6.10	Drake London	20.90
RB	Derrick Henry	22.20	Derrick Henry	22.20
RB	Kimani Vidal	3.20	Devin Singletary	17.70
TE	Oronde Gadsden	6.10	Oronde Gadsden	6.10
W/R/T	Drake London	20.90	Keaton Mitchell	8.56
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	12.40	Troy Franklin	12.40
DEF	Patriots	6.68	Patriots	6.68

Carried by One Guy: Jacoby Brissett, 23.88 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 11 – 17, 2025

Adam

121.41

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz

53.56

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.40 points left. Optimal 122.81 vs. actual 121.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	10.32	Caleb Williams	10.32
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.70	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.70
WR	Jaylen Waddle	8.20	DK Metcalf	9.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	35.10	Christian McCaffrey	35.10
RB	Tyler Allgeier	9.60	Tyler Allgeier	9.60
TE	T.J. Hockenson	6.90	Colston Loveland	7.00
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	13.20	Kareem Hunt	13.20
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	9.90	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	9.50
DEF	49ers	7.49	49ers	7.49

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 35.10 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.36 points left. Optimal 65.92 vs. actual 53.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	12.60	Jordan Love	17.66
WR	DJ Moore	3.10	DJ Moore	3.10
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	6.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	4.00	Josh Jacobs	4.00
RB	Tony Pollard	5.60	Tony Pollard	5.60
TE	Zach Ertz	8.20	Zach Ertz	8.20
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	9.40	Hollywood Brown	8.00
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	0.70	Jauan Jennings	9.40
DEF	Chiefs	3.76	Chiefs	3.76

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 12.60 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–6	4.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	7–4	7.462	-3.5	-0.269	2 / 3
Kev	5–6	6.385	-12.5	-0.962	1 / 4
Demich	3–8	4.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	10–1	8.077	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	5–6	5.692	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	7–4	8.692	-8.5	-0.654	0 / 3
Nevans	5–6	4.846	+4.5	+0.346	3 / 2
Josh	7–4	4.769	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	3–8	2.846	+3.0	+0.231	3 / 1
Fischer	3–8	3.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	7–4	6.692	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Niz	5–6	3.846	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	5–6	5.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11