2025 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

j-mart

100.54

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

128.80

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.88 points left. Optimal 106.42 vs. actual 100.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	17.66	Sam Darnold	17.66
WR	CeeDee Lamb	11.50	CeeDee Lamb	11.50
WR	Romeo Doubs	4.72	Xavier Worthy	9.90
RB	Breece Hall	13.90	Breece Hall	13.90
RB	Jaylen Warren	12.80	Jaylen Warren	12.80
TE	Brock Bowers	11.50	Brock Bowers	11.50
W/R/T	David Montgomery	6.70	David Montgomery	6.70
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	9.90	Juwan Johnson	10.60
DEF	Ravens	11.86	Ravens	11.86

Carried by One Guy: Sam Darnold, 17.66 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.64 points left. Optimal 140.44 vs. actual 128.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	19.08	Patrick Mahomes	19.08
WR	A.J. Brown	27.00	A.J. Brown	27.00
WR	Zay Flowers	11.90	Zay Flowers	11.90
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.70	Bam Knight	13.20
RB	Quinshon Judkins	16.70	Quinshon Judkins	16.70
TE	Theo Johnson	10.70	Theo Johnson	10.70
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.70	Greg Dortch	20.34
W/R/T	Bam Knight	13.20	Michael Pittman Jr.	13.70
DEF	Bills	7.82	Bills	7.82

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 27.00 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

Miller

95.47

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

104.24

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.82 points left. Optimal 110.29 vs. actual 95.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	15.96	Drake Maye	15.96
WR	Jordan Addison	0.00	Puka Nacua	16.70
WR	Puka Nacua	16.70	Adonai Mitchell	6.20
RB	Michael Carter	8.80	Michael Carter	8.80
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	2.48	Devin Neal	11.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.00	Dallas Goedert	4.00
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	26.10	Rashee Rice	26.10
W/R/T	Luther Burden III	9.10	Luther Burden III	9.10
DEF	Saints	12.33	Saints	12.33

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Rashee Rice, 26.10 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ashton Jeanty scored 24.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 109.24 vs. actual 104.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	8.12	Josh Allen	8.12
WR	Michael Wilson	23.80	Darnell Mooney	16.40
WR	Ricky Pearsall	2.80	Michael Wilson	23.80
RB	Javonte Williams	12.10	Javonte Williams	12.10
RB	Ashton Jeanty	24.80	Ashton Jeanty	24.80
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	2.90	Sean Tucker	5.60
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	16.40	Mason Taylor	5.10
DEF	Jaguars	8.82	Jaguars	8.82

Carried by One Guy: Ashton Jeanty, 24.80 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

Adam

136.23

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh

103.37

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 136.23 vs. actual 136.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	21.66	Caleb Williams	21.66
WR	DK Metcalf	14.40	DK Metcalf	14.40
WR	Joshua Palmer	4.10	Joshua Palmer	4.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	27.20	Christian McCaffrey	27.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	8.60	Jonathan Taylor	8.60
TE	Colston Loveland	14.90	Colston Loveland	14.90
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	22.00	Kareem Hunt	22.00
W/R/T	Tyler Allgeier	5.90	Tyler Allgeier	5.90
DEF	Browns	17.47	Browns	17.47

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 27.20 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.50 points left. Optimal 103.87 vs. actual 103.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	22.92	Matthew Stafford	22.92
WR	Tee Higgins	8.10	Tee Higgins	8.10
WR	Nico Collins	8.50	Nico Collins	8.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	1.90	Kenneth Walker	13.10
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.10	Blake Corum	2.40
TE	Hunter Henry	26.50	Hunter Henry	26.50
W/R/T	Christian Watson	9.90	Christian Watson	9.90
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	6.20	Emeka Egbuka	6.20
DEF	Eagles	6.25	Eagles	6.25

Carried by One Guy: Hunter Henry, 26.50 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

Big Hut

192.33

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin

94.32

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.48 points left. Optimal 196.81 vs. actual 192.33.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	30.86	Jalen Hurts	30.86
WR	DeVonta Smith	14.90	DeVonta Smith	14.90
WR	Alec Pierce	3.60	Calvin Austin III	8.08
RB	James Cook III	23.90	James Cook III	23.90
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	57.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	57.40
TE	Travis Kelce	8.40	Travis Kelce	8.40
W/R/T	Cade Otton	6.10	Cade Otton	6.10
W/R/T	Emanuel Wilson	28.50	Emanuel Wilson	28.50
DEF	Packers	18.67	Packers	18.67

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 57.40 points (29.8% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 100.92 vs. actual 94.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	7.22	Joe Flacco	9.62
WR	George Pickens	31.60	George Pickens	31.60
WR	Josh Downs	3.00	Josh Downs	3.00
RB	Chase Brown	17.00	Chase Brown	17.00
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	16.00	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	16.00
TE	Dalton Schultz	1.80	Dalton Schultz	1.80
W/R/T	David Njoku	0.00	Sterling Shepard	4.20
W/R/T	Woody Marks	7.90	Woody Marks	7.90
DEF	49ers	9.80	49ers	9.80

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 31.60 points (33.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

Krajcik

161.67

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

102.29

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.76 points left. Optimal 176.43 vs. actual 161.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	3.54	Baker Mayfield	3.54
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	32.60	Wan'Dale Robinson	32.60
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	39.10	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	39.10
RB	Rico Dowdle	11.40	Kenny Gainwell	18.56
RB	Bijan Robinson	14.70	Bijan Robinson	14.70
TE	Trey McBride	16.90	Trey McBride	16.90
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	15.00	Jakobi Meyers	15.00
W/R/T	Kenny Gainwell	18.56	Chimere Dike	26.16
DEF	Steelers	9.87	Steelers	9.87

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 39.10 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.06 points left. Optimal 124.35 vs. actual 102.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	17.16	Jared Goff	17.16
WR	Kayshon Boutte	3.50	Jayden Higgins	13.80
WR	Jayden Higgins	13.80	Tez Johnson	12.30
RB	Alvin Kamara	3.50	Dylan Sampson	16.76
RB	Kyle Monangai	10.80	Kyle Monangai	10.80
TE	Tyler Warren	9.50	Tyler Warren	9.50
W/R/T	Davante Adams	23.20	Davante Adams	23.20
W/R/T	Chris Olave	16.00	Chris Olave	16.00
DEF	Lions	4.83	Lions	4.83

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 23.20 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

Demich

71.01

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

95.36

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.78 points left. Optimal 88.79 vs. actual 71.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	7.32	Geno Smith	14.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	8.80	Justin Jefferson	8.80
WR	Tre Tucker	5.80	Tre Tucker	5.80
RB	Zach Charbonnet	9.50	Zach Charbonnet	9.50
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	11.10	TreVeyon Henderson	11.10
TE	Jake Ferguson	11.10	Jake Ferguson	11.10
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	0.00	Pat Freiermuth	10.90
W/R/T	Tetairoa McMillan	11.50	Tetairoa McMillan	11.50
DEF	Raiders	5.89	Raiders	5.89

Carried by One Guy: Tetairoa McMillan, 11.50 points (16.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures unavailable: inconsistent-eligibility.

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 22.80 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Roster evidence flags: inconsistent-eligibility.

Regular

Nov 18 – 24, 2025

Kev

113.04

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Niz

115.08

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.10 points left. Optimal 118.14 vs. actual 113.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	29.06	Dak Prescott	29.06
WR	Stefon Diggs	4.00	Stefon Diggs	4.00
WR	Darius Slayton	3.30	Parker Washington	18.96
RB	Saquon Barkley	12.40	Saquon Barkley	12.40
RB	Kyren Williams	5.96	Kyren Williams	5.96
TE	George Kittle	13.80	George Kittle	13.80
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	20.60	Travis Etienne Jr.	20.60
W/R/T	Parker Washington	18.96	Harold Fannin Jr.	8.40
DEF	Seahawks	4.96	Seahawks	4.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 29.06 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 31.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.50 points left. Optimal 117.58 vs. actual 115.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	7.06	Jordan Love	7.06
WR	Jauan Jennings	15.10	Jauan Jennings	15.10
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	31.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	31.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	0.00	Nick Chubb	2.50
RB	Tony Pollard	8.10	Tony Pollard	8.10
TE	Chig Okonkwo	7.00	Chig Okonkwo	7.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	23.40	DJ Moore	23.40
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	19.30	Khalil Shakir	19.30
DEF	Chiefs	3.22	Chiefs	3.22

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 31.90 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–7	4.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	7–5	7.692	-3.5	-0.269	2 / 3
Kev	5–7	7.000	-14.0	-1.077	1 / 5
Demich	3–9	4.462	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Krajcik	11–1	9.000	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	6–6	6.692	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	8–4	9.538	-8.5	-0.654	0 / 3
Nevans	6–6	5.385	+4.5	+0.346	3 / 2
Josh	7–5	5.231	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	3–9	2.923	+3.0	+0.231	3 / 1
Fischer	3–9	4.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	8–4	6.846	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 2
Niz	6–6	4.538	+5.0	+0.385	2 / 0
Horgan	6–6	5.769	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12