2025 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

j-mart

116.07

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

99.60

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.86 points left. Optimal 133.93 vs. actual 116.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	20.86	Justin Fields	20.86
WR	CeeDee Lamb	14.60	CeeDee Lamb	14.60
WR	Xavier Worthy	10.30	Xavier Worthy	10.30
RB	Jordan Mason	1.60	Breece Hall	34.86
RB	Jaylen Warren	9.30	Ollie Gordon II	14.10
TE	Cade Otton	8.00	Cade Otton	8.00
W/R/T	Breece Hall	34.86	Romeo Doubs	9.74
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	9.74	Rashid Shaheed	14.66
DEF	Texans	6.81	Texans	6.81

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 34.86 points (30.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 99.60 vs. actual 99.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.22	Josh Allen	23.22
WR	Jerry Jeudy	0.00	Jerry Jeudy	0.00
WR	Xavier Legette	3.70	Xavier Legette	3.70
RB	Javonte Williams	17.90	Javonte Williams	17.90
RB	Sean Tucker	11.20	Sean Tucker	11.20
TE	Mason Taylor	14.40	Mason Taylor	14.40
W/R/T	Kyle Pitts Sr.	14.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	14.90
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	6.12	Keon Coleman	6.12
DEF	Eagles	8.16	Eagles	8.16

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 23.22 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Breece Hall scored 34.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

Miller

154.38

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh

95.93

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.40 points left. Optimal 174.78 vs. actual 154.38.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	26.28	Drake Maye	26.28
WR	Jordan Addison	11.60	Jordan Addison	11.60
WR	Rashee Rice	25.50	Rashee Rice	25.50
RB	De'Von Achane	20.10	De'Von Achane	20.10
RB	Cam Skattebo	10.00	Isaiah Davis	17.90
TE	Dallas Goedert	17.80	Dallas Goedert	17.80
W/R/T	Luther Burden III	0.90	Jayden Higgins	13.40
W/R/T	RJ Harvey	24.62	RJ Harvey	24.62
DEF	Bills	17.58	Bills	17.58

Carried by One Guy: Drake Maye, 26.28 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.52 points left. Optimal 111.45 vs. actual 95.93.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	23.18	Daniel Jones	23.18
WR	Tee Higgins	11.40	Tee Higgins	11.40
WR	Darnell Mooney	2.10	Christian Watson	12.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	15.10	D'Andre Swift	15.10
RB	J.K. Dobbins	16.10	J.K. Dobbins	16.10
TE	Hunter Henry	7.70	Hunter Henry	7.70
W/R/T	Mark Andrews	6.40	Emeka Egbuka	6.50
W/R/T	Emeka Egbuka	6.50	Jaylin Noel	11.52
DEF	Broncos	7.45	Broncos	7.45

Carried by One Guy: Daniel Jones, 23.18 points (24.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

Big Hut

149.72

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Adam

122.96

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.82 points left. Optimal 165.54 vs. actual 149.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	25.36	Jalen Hurts	25.36
WR	DeVonta Smith	14.40	DeVonta Smith	14.40
WR	Marvin Mims Jr.	5.18	Alec Pierce	8.90
RB	Jeremy McNichols	11.80	Jeremy McNichols	11.80
RB	James Cook III	35.60	James Cook III	35.60
TE	Travis Kelce	21.90	Travis Kelce	21.90
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	8.90	Chig Okonkwo	9.30
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	0.00	Emanuel Wilson	11.70
DEF	Buccaneers	26.58	Buccaneers	26.58

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 35.60 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 135.96 vs. actual 122.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	11.80	Caleb Williams	11.80
WR	DK Metcalf	16.50	DK Metcalf	16.50
WR	Jaylen Waddle	20.90	Jaylen Waddle	20.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	9.80	Christian McCaffrey	9.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	39.40	Jonathan Taylor	39.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	4.60	T.J. Hockenson	4.60
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.20	Kareem Hunt	17.20
W/R/T	Tyler Allgeier	9.40	Tyler Allgeier	9.40
DEF	Packers	6.36	Packers	6.36

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 39.40 points (32.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: James Cook III scored 35.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

Demich

72.41

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Martin

103.86

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 72.41 vs. actual 72.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	1.10	Andy Dalton	1.10
WR	Justin Jefferson	14.40	Justin Jefferson	14.40
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	16.90	Tetairoa McMillan	16.90
RB	TreVeyon Henderson	6.60	TreVeyon Henderson	6.60
RB	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	2.50	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	2.50
TE	Jake Ferguson	0.00	Jake Ferguson	0.00
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	20.80	Ladd McConkey	20.80
W/R/T	Jalen Coker	6.60	Jalen Coker	6.60
DEF	49ers	3.51	49ers	3.51

Carried by One Guy: Ladd McConkey, 20.80 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.30 points left. Optimal 114.16 vs. actual 103.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Flacco	24.32	Joe Flacco	24.32
WR	George Pickens	14.80	George Pickens	14.80
WR	Matthew Golden	3.40	Josh Downs	12.90
RB	Chase Brown	25.50	Chase Brown	25.50
RB	Woody Marks	15.10	Woody Marks	15.10
TE	Dalton Schultz	4.40	Dalton Schultz	4.40
W/R/T	Josh Downs	12.90	David Njoku	13.70
W/R/T	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	7.30	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	7.30
DEF	Bengals	-3.86	Bengals	-3.86

Carried by One Guy: Chase Brown, 25.50 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

Fischer

105.01

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

181.15

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.88 points left. Optimal 110.89 vs. actual 105.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	16.76	Aaron Rodgers	16.76
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	21.10	Ja'Marr Chase	21.10
WR	Kayshon Boutte	16.50	Kayshon Boutte	16.50
RB	Alvin Kamara	6.50	Alvin Kamara	6.50
RB	Kyle Monangai	2.40	Dylan Sampson	8.28
TE	Tyler Warren	9.30	Tyler Warren	9.30
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	14.40	Terry McLaurin	14.40
W/R/T	Tez Johnson	9.30	Tez Johnson	9.30
DEF	Colts	8.75	Colts	8.75

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 21.10 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.30 points left. Optimal 191.45 vs. actual 181.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	23.72	C.J. Stroud	23.72
WR	Keenan Allen	8.40	Chris Olave	14.00
WR	Chris Olave	14.00	Rome Odunze	20.40
RB	Derrick Henry	19.10	Derrick Henry	19.10
RB	Kimani Vidal	21.70	Kimani Vidal	21.70
TE	Tucker Kraft	35.30	Tucker Kraft	35.30
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	20.40	Troy Franklin	26.90
W/R/T	Troy Franklin	26.90	Oronde Gadsden	18.70
DEF	Patriots	11.63	Patriots	11.63

Carried by One Guy: Tucker Kraft, 35.30 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

Krajcik

40.20

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

95.63

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 40.20 vs. actual 40.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	4.08	Baker Mayfield	4.08
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	2.40	DeAndre Hopkins	2.40
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	7.80	Wan'Dale Robinson	7.80
RB	Rico Dowdle	5.98	Rico Dowdle	5.98
RB	Bijan Robinson	5.80	Bijan Robinson	5.80
TE	Jonnu Smith	3.70	Jonnu Smith	3.70
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	5.90	Rhamondre Stevenson	5.90
W/R/T	Rachaad White	8.10	Rachaad White	8.10
DEF	Steelers	-3.56	Steelers	-3.56

Carried by One Guy: Rachaad White, 8.10 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.62 points left. Optimal 116.25 vs. actual 95.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	23.78	Jordan Love	30.30
WR	DJ Moore	11.60	DJ Moore	11.60
WR	Khalil Shakir	20.96	Khalil Shakir	20.96
RB	Josh Jacobs	13.50	Josh Jacobs	13.50
RB	Tony Pollard	6.30	Tony Pollard	6.30
TE	Zach Ertz	5.60	Zach Ertz	5.60
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	0.00	Nick Chubb	8.90
W/R/T	Dalton Kincaid	3.30	Jauan Jennings	8.50
DEF	Chiefs	10.59	Chiefs	10.59

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 23.78 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 21 – 27, 2025

Kev

110.22

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

118.65

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.80 points left. Optimal 123.02 vs. actual 110.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	6.62	Jaxson Dart	19.42
WR	Stefon Diggs	10.40	Stefon Diggs	10.40
WR	Courtland Sutton	10.70	Courtland Sutton	10.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	35.40	Saquon Barkley	35.40
RB	Justice Hill	0.20	Justice Hill	0.20
TE	George Kittle	14.30	George Kittle	14.30
W/R/T	Malik Washington	13.78	Malik Washington	13.78
W/R/T	Harold Fannin Jr.	18.40	Harold Fannin Jr.	18.40
DEF	Falcons	0.42	Falcons	0.42

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 35.40 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Michael Pittman Jr. scored 23.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.42 points left. Optimal 135.07 vs. actual 118.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	22.96	Justin Herbert	25.28
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	23.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	23.50
WR	Zay Flowers	14.10	Zay Flowers	14.10
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.94	Chuba Hubbard	9.94
RB	Quinshon Judkins	4.70	Tyjae Spears	17.20
TE	Theo Johnson	5.00	Theo Johnson	5.00
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	5.80	Kendrick Bourne	7.40
W/R/T	Chimere Dike	20.90	Chimere Dike	20.90
DEF	Chargers	11.75	Chargers	11.75

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 23.50 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–4	3.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Miller	4–4	5.923	-6.5	-0.500	0 / 3
Kev	3–5	4.000	-7.0	-0.538	1 / 3
Demich	2–6	2.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	7–1	5.462	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Big Hut	4–4	4.308	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Adam	4–4	6.154	-8.5	-0.654	0 / 3
Nevans	4–4	3.769	+1.5	+0.115	2 / 1
Josh	5–3	3.154	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Martin	2–6	1.692	+3.0	+0.231	2 / 0
Fischer	2–6	3.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	6–2	5.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	4–4	3.154	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	5–3	4.538	0.0	0.000	1 / 1

2025 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8