2024 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fischer | 13–1 | 1830.63 | 8.923 | +1.5 | +0.115 | 3 | 0 | 63.7% |
| Joe Shore | 10–4 | 1871.29 | 9.769 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 0 | 2 | 69.8% |
| Nevans | 9–5 | 1854.87 | 9.154 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 1 | 1 | 65.4% |
| Miller | 8–6 | 1473.29 | 5.077 | +7.5 | +0.577 | 3 | 0 | 36.3% |
| Josh | 7–7 | 1749.82 | 7.923 | -4.5 | -0.346 | 3 | 4 | 56.6% |
| Horgan | 7–7 | 1693.90 | 7.462 | -2.0 | -0.154 | 1 | 1 | 53.3% |
| Kev | 7–7 | 1657.33 | 6.769 | -1.0 | -0.077 | 1 | 1 | 48.4% |
| Krajcik | 6–8 | 1732.93 | 8.154 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 1 | 3 | 58.2% |
| Adam | 6–8 | 1563.04 | 5.769 | +2.5 | +0.192 | 3 | 2 | 41.2% |
| Demich | 6–8 | 1412.51 | 4.000 | +5.5 | +0.423 | 3 | 0 | 28.6% |
| Niz | 5–9 | 1680.51 | 7.231 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 1 | 3 | 51.6% |
| j-mart | 5–9 | 1674.39 | 7.000 | -2.0 | -0.154 | 1 | 3 | 50.0% |
| Big Hut | 5–9 | 1503.60 | 5.077 | +3.5 | +0.269 | 3 | 2 | 36.3% |
| Martin | 4–10 | 1556.63 | 5.692 | -1.0 | -0.077 | 2 | 4 | 40.7% |
All-play order
- Joe Shore — 9.769 expected wins; 127–55–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 9.154 expected wins; 119–63–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 8.923 expected wins; 116–66–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 8.154 expected wins; 106–76–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 7.923 expected wins; 103–79–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 7.462 expected wins; 97–85–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Niz — 7.231 expected wins; 94–88–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 7.000 expected wins; 91–91–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 6.769 expected wins; 88–94–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 5.769 expected wins; 75–107–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 5.692 expected wins; 74–108–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 5.077 expected wins; 66–116–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 5.077 expected wins; 66–116–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 4.000 expected wins; 52–130–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- AdamRank 4, 151.67 points, lost by 9.15. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- DemichRank 9, 122.99 points, won by 16.98. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.04 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| Miller | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.58 | +0.58 | +0.58 | +0.58 |
| Kev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.42 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Big Hut | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.62 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 |
| Adam | 0.00 | -0.35 | +0.08 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.42 | +0.46 | +0.19 |
| Nevans | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Josh | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.23 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.38 | -0.38 | -0.35 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.35 | -0.35 |
| Martin | -0.04 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Niz | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | 0.00 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Horgan | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Fischer | 10–4 (+5.0) | Joe Shore | 4–10 (-1.0) |
| Miller | Horgan | 8–6 (0.0) | Niz | 3–11 (-5.0) |
| Kev | Fischer | 10–4 (+3.0) | Adam | 4–10 (-3.0) |
| Demich | Fischer | 6–8 (0.0) | Joe Shore | 2–12 (-4.0) |
| Krajcik | Fischer | 10–4 (+4.0) | Joe Shore | 6–8 (0.0) |
| Big Hut | j-mart | 6–8 (+1.0) | Joe Shore | 3–11 (-2.0) |
| Adam | Fischer | 9–5 (+3.0) | Niz | 4–10 (-2.0) |
| Nevans | Fischer | 11–3 (+2.0) | Niz | 7–7 (-2.0) |
| Josh | Horgan | 12–2 (+5.0) | Krajcik | 4–10 (-3.0) |
| Martin | Fischer | 10–4 (+6.0) | Joe Shore | 3–11 (-1.0) |
| Fischer | Fischer | 13–1 (0.0) | Niz | 6–8 (-7.0) |
| Joe Shore | Fischer | 12–2 (+2.0) | Niz | 8–6 (-2.0) |
| Niz | Fischer | 10–4 (+5.0) | Miller | 4–10 (-1.0) |
| Horgan | Demich | 11–3 (+4.0) | Martin | 5–9 (-2.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | +0.00 pts | 14 | Demich: +44.52 pts |
| Miller | -1.74 pts | 14 | Josh: +48.07 pts |
| Kev | +4.66 pts | 14 | Fischer: +55.09 pts |
| Demich | -7.44 pts | 14 | Miller: +29.04 pts |
| Krajcik | +7.29 pts | 14 | Demich: +41.31 pts |
| Big Hut | -3.88 pts | 14 | Fischer: +27.85 pts |
| Adam | +0.52 pts | 14 | Niz: +43.92 pts |
| Nevans | +3.74 pts | 14 | Big Hut: +53.65 pts |
| Josh | +9.09 pts | 14 | Martin: +56.33 pts |
| Martin | -3.10 pts | 14 | Josh: +24.90 pts |
| Fischer | -21.53 pts | 14 | Big Hut: +14.32 pts |
| Joe Shore | +4.24 pts | 14 | Martin: +27.84 pts |
| Niz | +14.68 pts | 14 | Horgan: +50.46 pts |
| Horgan | -6.54 pts | 14 | Nevans: +39.51 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 48.8% | 14 | 119.65 |
| Miller | 49.4% | 14 | 118.44 |
| Kev | 53.0% | 14 | 123.36 |
| Demich | 39.9% | 14 | 112.20 |
| Krajcik | 58.9% | 14 | 125.03 |
| Big Hut | 43.5% | 14 | 114.58 |
| Adam | 48.8% | 14 | 119.73 |
| Nevans | 57.1% | 14 | 120.60 |
| Josh | 56.0% | 14 | 125.67 |
| Martin | 51.2% | 14 | 117.29 |
| Fischer | 28.6% | 14 | 97.96 |
| Joe Shore | 60.7% | 14 | 121.58 |
| Niz | 63.1% | 14 | 131.68 |
| Horgan | 41.1% | 14 | 113.28 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 3.87 | 1.81 |
| Miller | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 3.96 | None |
| Kev | 2–0 | 2 | 100.0% | 0.47 | None |
| Demich | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 4.29 | 1.10 |
| Krajcik | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.29 |
| Big Hut | 3–2 | 5 | 60.0% | 1.10 | 2.43 |
| Adam | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 2.43 | 0.73 |
| Nevans | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 3.67 | 1.47 |
| Josh | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1.85 | None |
| Martin | 2–4 | 6 | 33.3% | 1.47 | 0.47 |
| Fischer | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.60 | 4.53 |
| Joe Shore | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Niz | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.73 | 3.87 |
| Horgan | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 4.41 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 35.7% | 50.0% | -14.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 57.1% | 36.3% | +20.9 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Kev | 50.0% | 48.4% | +1.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Demich | 42.9% | 28.6% | +14.3 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Krajcik | 42.9% | 58.2% | -15.4 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Big Hut | 35.7% | 36.3% | -0.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 42.9% | 41.2% | +1.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Nevans | 64.3% | 65.4% | -1.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Josh | 50.0% | 56.6% | -6.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Martin | 28.6% | 40.7% | -12.1 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 92.9% | 63.7% | +29.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Joe Shore | 71.4% | 69.8% | +1.6 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Niz | 35.7% | 51.6% | -15.9 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Horgan | 50.0% | 53.3% | -3.3 pp | Wasted Talent |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 28.0 pp | 50.0% | 14 |
| Miller | 27.3 pp | 36.3% | 14 |
| Kev | 32.3 pp | 48.4% | 14 |
| Demich | 28.8 pp | 28.6% | 14 |
| Krajcik | 27.8 pp | 58.2% | 14 |
| Big Hut | 27.3 pp | 36.3% | 14 |
| Adam | 33.1 pp | 41.2% | 14 |
| Nevans | 30.6 pp | 65.4% | 14 |
| Josh | 27.7 pp | 56.6% | 14 |
| Martin | 27.3 pp | 40.7% | 14 |
| Fischer | 21.3 pp | 63.7% | 14 |
| Joe Shore | 27.0 pp | 69.8% | 14 |
| Niz | 32.0 pp | 51.6% | 14 |
| Horgan | 28.9 pp | 53.3% | 14 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Horgan | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Miller | Josh | 0–2 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Kev | Fischer | 0–1 | Niz | 1–0 |
| Demich | Nevans | 0–1 | j-mart | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | j-mart | 0–1 | Miller | 1–0 |
| Big Hut | Josh | 0–1 | Nevans | 1–0 |
| Adam | Niz | 0–2 | Miller | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Big Hut | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Josh | Nevans | 0–1 | Miller | 2–0 |
| Martin | Krajcik | 0–1 | Demich | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Nevans | 0–1 | Horgan | 2–0 |
| Joe Shore | Fischer | 0–1 | Miller | 1–0 |
| Niz | Kev | 0–1 | Adam | 2–0 |
| Horgan | Fischer | 0–2 | Adam | 1–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 125.90 | 3 | |
| Miller | 185.58 | 0 | |
| Kev | 195.21 | 3 | |
| Demich | 227.12 | 2 | |
| Krajcik | 152.34 | 2 | |
| Big Hut | 182.00 | 2 | |
| Adam | 168.10 | 2 | |
| Nevans | 107.87 | 1 | |
| Josh | 154.30 | 2 | |
| Martin | 128.60 | 5 | |
| Fischer | 247.65 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | 156.49 | 0 | |
| Niz | 207.06 | 4 | |
| Horgan | 157.16 | 1 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Josh Allen | 18.4% | 1675.81 | 14 weeks
|
| Miller | DJ Moore | 12.1% | 1475.73 | 14 weeks
|
| Kev | Jayden Daniels | 15.9% | 1659.12 | 14 weeks
|
| Demich | Aaron Jones Sr. | 13.5% | 1412.91 | 14 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Alvin Kamara | 14.6% | 1736.20 | 14 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Josh Jacobs | 15.6% | 1504.60 | 14 weeks
|
| Adam | Puka Nacua | 10.2% | 1567.62 | 14 weeks
|
| Nevans | Saquon Barkley | 17.1% | 1854.87 | 14 weeks
|
| Josh | Justin Jefferson | 13.8% | 1758.24 | 14 weeks
|
| Martin | Lamar Jackson | 21.0% | 1556.73 | 14 weeks
|
| Fischer | De'Von Achane | 12.6% | 1830.63 | 14 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Joe Mixon | 12.1% | 1873.76 | 14 weeks |
| Niz | Joe Burrow | 17.6% | 1680.51 | 14 weeks
|
| Horgan | Bijan Robinson | 14.9% | 1695.46 | 14 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Chris Godwin Jr. | 327.10 | 1 | |
| Miller | Kenneth Walker | 24.19 | 1 | |
| Kev | Jalen Hurts | 174.92 | 1 | |
| Demich | Xavier Worthy | 107.04 | 1 | |
| Krajcik | Taysom Hill | 287.34 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 230.83 | 1 | |
| Adam | Jaylen Waddle | 340.60 | 2 | |
| Nevans | Zach Charbonnet | 195.38 | 1 | |
| Josh | Ladd McConkey | 96.38 | 1 | |
| Martin | Saquon Barkley | 481.60 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Brandon Aiyuk | 80.91 | 1 | 1 week
|
| Joe Shore | Malik Nabers | 111.60 | 1 | |
| Niz | Josh Allen | 182.46 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Ja'Marr Chase | 202.79 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.