2024 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

j-mart

114.44

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Martin

116.25

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 118.94 vs. actual 114.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.98	Josh Allen	23.98
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	40.70	Amon-Ra St. Brown	40.70
WR	Garrett Wilson	5.80	Garrett Wilson	5.80
RB	Kareem Hunt	6.00	Kareem Hunt	6.00
RB	Cam Akers	11.60	Cam Akers	11.60
TE	Isaiah Likely	9.50	Isaiah Likely	9.50
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.80	Drake London	9.10
W/R/T	Drake London	9.10	John Metchie III	6.30
DEF	Saints	5.96	Saints	5.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 40.70 points (35.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scored 21.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 116.25 vs. actual 116.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	14.88	Lamar Jackson	14.88
WR	Josh Downs	20.14	Josh Downs	20.14
WR	Ladd McConkey	20.30	Ladd McConkey	20.30
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.30	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.30
RB	Tyjae Spears	2.80	Tyjae Spears	2.80
TE	Tanner Hudson	3.30	Tanner Hudson	3.30
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	16.70	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	16.70
W/R/T	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	21.70	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	21.70
DEF	Steelers	10.13	Steelers	10.13

Carried by One Guy: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, 21.70 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

Miller

101.87

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Kev

93.71

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.10 points left. Optimal 117.97 vs. actual 101.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	17.98	Drake Maye	17.98
WR	DJ Moore	13.70	DJ Moore	13.70
WR	George Pickens	16.90	George Pickens	16.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	7.00	Jonathan Taylor	7.00
RB	Ray Davis	1.10	Ray Davis	1.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.90	Will Dissly	18.00
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	31.80	Tee Higgins	31.80
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	4.70	Darnell Mooney	4.70
DEF	Bills	6.79	Bills	6.79

Carried by One Guy: Tee Higgins, 31.80 points (31.2% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.00 points left. Optimal 114.71 vs. actual 93.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	13.44	Jayden Daniels	13.44
WR	Amari Cooper	7.50	Amari Cooper	7.50
WR	Kayshon Boutte	7.30	Kayshon Boutte	7.30
RB	James Cook III	19.70	James Cook III	19.70
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.30	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.30
TE	Tucker Kraft	0.00	Hunter Henry	12.30
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	12.30	Christian Watson	21.00
W/R/T	Audric Estime	5.50	Audric Estime	5.50
DEF	Packers	8.67	Packers	8.67

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 19.70 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tee Higgins scored 31.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

Demich

139.25

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

134.96

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.70 points left. Optimal 139.95 vs. actual 139.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	30.78	Bo Nix	30.78
WR	DeMario Douglas	9.90	DeMario Douglas	9.90
WR	Rome Odunze	12.50	Rome Odunze	12.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	5.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	5.30
RB	D'Andre Swift	16.40	D'Andre Swift	16.40
TE	Taysom Hill	44.36	Taysom Hill	44.36
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	2.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.60
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.60	Pat Freiermuth	3.40
DEF	Eagles	7.71	Eagles	7.71

Carried by One Guy: Taysom Hill, 44.36 points (31.9% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 145.06 vs. actual 134.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	20.24	Jordan Love	20.24
WR	Courtland Sutton	14.80	Courtland Sutton	14.80
WR	Quentin Johnston	12.80	Quentin Johnston	12.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	12.90	Alvin Kamara	12.90
RB	Breece Hall	31.10	Breece Hall	31.10
TE	Travis Kelce	2.80	Travis Kelce	2.80
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	5.00	David Montgomery	24.50
W/R/T	David Montgomery	24.50	Jordan Addison	15.10
DEF	Rams	10.82	Rams	10.82

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 31.10 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Taysom Hill scored 44.36; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

Adam

115.82

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

130.56

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 115.82 vs. actual 115.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	6.30	Russell Wilson	6.30
WR	Calvin Ridley	9.80	Calvin Ridley	9.80
WR	DeVonta Smith	6.90	DeVonta Smith	6.90
RB	Alexander Mattison	9.90	Alexander Mattison	9.90
RB	Jaylen Warren	10.80	Jaylen Warren	10.80
TE	Zach Ertz	18.70	Zach Ertz	18.70
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	18.60	Elijah Moore	18.60
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	27.30	Puka Nacua	27.30
DEF	Dolphins	7.52	Dolphins	7.52

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 27.30 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brock Bowers scored 33.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.32 points left. Optimal 153.88 vs. actual 130.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	18.36	Anthony Richardson Sr.	28.08
WR	Tyreek Hill	19.10	Tyreek Hill	19.10
WR	Ricky Pearsall	0.00	Brian Thomas Jr.	13.60
RB	Brian Robinson	14.20	Brian Robinson	14.20
RB	De'Von Achane	20.50	De'Von Achane	20.50
TE	Brock Bowers	33.30	Brock Bowers	33.30
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	5.40	Rico Dowdle	5.40
W/R/T	Nico Collins	9.40	Nico Collins	9.40
DEF	Lions	10.30	Lions	10.30

Carried by One Guy: Brock Bowers, 33.30 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

Josh

133.17

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Joe Shore

158.43

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 144.17 vs. actual 133.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	23.64	Sam Darnold	23.64
WR	Justin Jefferson	14.10	Justin Jefferson	14.10
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	26.50	Ja'Marr Chase	26.50
RB	J.K. Dobbins	18.90	J.K. Dobbins	18.90
RB	Najee Harris	13.30	Najee Harris	13.30
TE	Dawson Knox	8.00	Dawson Knox	8.00
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	18.60	CeeDee Lamb	18.60
W/R/T	Cedric Tillman	7.70	Javonte Williams	18.70
DEF	Jets	2.43	Jets	2.43

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 26.50 points (19.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Joe Mixon scored 37.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.38 points left. Optimal 176.81 vs. actual 158.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	18.74	Jalen Hurts	18.74
WR	Cooper Kupp	30.60	Cooper Kupp	30.60
WR	A.J. Brown	11.50	A.J. Brown	11.50
RB	Joe Mixon	37.30	Joe Mixon	37.30
RB	Chase Brown	19.30	Chase Brown	19.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	3.30	Cole Kmet	7.20
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	14.00	DK Metcalf	14.00
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	10.12	Jameson Williams	24.60
DEF	Broncos	13.57	Broncos	13.57

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 37.30 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

Nevans

165.84

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz

138.26

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 165.84 vs. actual 165.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	36.58	Jared Goff	36.58
WR	Davante Adams	13.20	Davante Adams	13.20
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	23.80	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	23.80
RB	Derrick Henry	10.50	Derrick Henry	10.50
RB	Saquon Barkley	35.80	Saquon Barkley	35.80
TE	Dallas Goedert	11.10	Dallas Goedert	11.10
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	10.60	Ray-Ray McCloud III	10.60
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	5.00	Rashod Bateman	5.00
DEF	Texans	19.26	Texans	19.26

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 36.58 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.08 points left. Optimal 174.34 vs. actual 138.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	31.04	Joe Burrow	31.04
WR	Khalil Shakir	15.00	Khalil Shakir	15.00
WR	Tank Dell	9.80	Tank Dell	9.80
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.90	Austin Ekeler	18.78
RB	Kyren Williams	8.60	Kenneth Walker	13.90
TE	David Njoku	19.10	David Njoku	19.10
W/R/T	Mark Andrews	4.20	Jonnu Smith	30.10
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	25.10	Jauan Jennings	25.10
DEF	Vikings	11.52	Vikings	11.52

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 31.04 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jared Goff scored 36.58; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 12 – 18, 2024

Big Hut

98.46

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Horgan

94.05

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.30 points left. Optimal 126.76 vs. actual 98.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	10.88	Justin Herbert	24.38
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	6.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	2.00	Xavier Worthy	16.80
RB	Christian McCaffrey	14.60	Christian McCaffrey	14.60
RB	Tony Pollard	4.90	Tony Pollard	4.90
TE	Dalton Schultz	8.30	Dalton Schultz	8.30
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	23.40	Josh Jacobs	23.40
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	28.20	Jerry Jeudy	28.20
DEF	Chiefs	0.08	Chiefs	0.08

Carried by One Guy: Jerry Jeudy, 28.20 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.34 points left. Optimal 98.39 vs. actual 94.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	23.52	Tua Tagovailoa	23.52
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	5.90	DeAndre Hopkins	5.90
WR	Zay Flowers	11.90	Zay Flowers	11.90
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.90	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.90
RB	Bijan Robinson	10.30	Bijan Robinson	10.30
TE	Evan Engram	7.80	Evan Engram	7.80
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	8.80	Jakobi Meyers	8.80
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	4.30	Jerome Ford	8.64
DEF	49ers	8.63	49ers	8.63

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 23.52 points (25.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jerry Jeudy scored 28.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–7	6.231	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Miller	7–4	4.231	+7.5	+0.577	3 / 0
Kev	7–4	6.000	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	4–7	3.077	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Krajcik	4–7	6.231	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Big Hut	4–7	3.077	+8.0	+0.615	3 / 1
Adam	4–7	3.846	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	8–3	7.462	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	5–6	6.385	-6.0	-0.462	2 / 4
Martin	3–8	4.385	+1.5	+0.115	2 / 3
Fischer	10–1	6.769	+1.0	+0.077	2 / 0
Joe Shore	8–3	7.846	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–7	5.462	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Horgan	5–6	6.000	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11