2024 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

j-mart

105.92

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller

117.44

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.50 points left. Optimal 115.42 vs. actual 105.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	7.30	Josh Allen	7.30
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.78	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.78
WR	Rashid Shaheed	17.54	Rashid Shaheed	17.54
RB	James Conner	20.30	Kareem Hunt	10.50
RB	Devin Singletary	4.80	James Conner	20.30
TE	Dalton Kincaid	9.70	Dalton Kincaid	9.70
W/R/T	Drake London	12.40	Drake London	12.40
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	8.10	Tyjae Spears	11.90
DEF	Cowboys	5.00	Cowboys	5.00

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 20.78 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Fields scored 33.98; zeroing that score creates a win.

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.60 points left. Optimal 119.04 vs. actual 117.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	33.98	Justin Fields	33.98
WR	DJ Moore	11.20	DJ Moore	11.20
WR	Tee Higgins	12.00	Tee Higgins	12.00
RB	Samaje Perine	7.40	Jonathan Taylor	19.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	19.80	Tank Bigsby	9.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	0.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	0.00
W/R/T	Chris Olave	16.70	Chris Olave	16.70
W/R/T	George Pickens	18.30	George Pickens	18.30
DEF	Bills	-1.94	Bills	-1.94

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 33.98 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

Kev

139.55

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

126.55

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 142.35 vs. actual 139.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	24.02	Jayden Daniels	24.02
WR	Amari Cooper	7.50	Amari Cooper	7.50
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.90	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.90
RB	Jordan Mason	26.00	Jordan Mason	26.00
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.80	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.80
TE	George Kittle	14.50	George Kittle	14.50
W/R/T	James Cook III	5.80	Roschon Johnson	8.60
W/R/T	Xavier Legette	19.60	Xavier Legette	19.60
DEF	Bears	9.43	Bears	9.43

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Mason, 26.00 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.80 points left. Optimal 128.35 vs. actual 126.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	25.50	C.J. Stroud	25.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	18.20	Terry McLaurin	18.20
WR	Jerry Jeudy	13.20	Jerry Jeudy	13.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	11.80	Josh Jacobs	11.80
RB	Tony Pollard	18.80	Tony Pollard	18.80
TE	Dalton Schultz	6.40	Colby Parkinson	7.30
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.20	Tyler Lockett	11.10
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	16.30	Xavier Worthy	16.30
DEF	Chiefs	6.15	Chiefs	6.15

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 25.50 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordan Mason scored 26.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

Krajcik

157.37

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

123.11

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.08 points left. Optimal 161.45 vs. actual 157.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	30.16	Jordan Love	30.16
WR	Courtland Sutton	15.00	Courtland Sutton	15.00
WR	Christian Kirk	19.10	Christian Kirk	19.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	24.90	Alvin Kamara	24.90
RB	Breece Hall	3.80	David Montgomery	15.00
TE	Travis Kelce	15.90	Travis Kelce	15.90
W/R/T	David Montgomery	15.00	Greg Dortch	7.88
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	22.90	Jordan Addison	22.90
DEF	Titans	10.61	Titans	10.61

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Love, 30.16 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.60 points left. Optimal 144.71 vs. actual 123.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	13.00	Patrick Mahomes	13.00
WR	Justin Jefferson	20.50	Justin Jefferson	20.50
WR	Romeo Doubs	7.90	Khalil Shakir	10.20
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.20	J.K. Dobbins	9.20
RB	Javonte Williams	10.00	Javonte Williams	10.00
TE	Jake Ferguson	11.90	Jake Ferguson	11.90
W/R/T	Kenneth Walker	33.60	D'Andre Swift	29.50
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	10.20	Kenneth Walker	33.60
DEF	Jets	6.81	Jets	6.81

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker, 33.60 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

Adam

95.11

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Martin

85.34

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.50 points left. Optimal 106.61 vs. actual 95.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.32	Jalen Hurts	16.32
WR	Tyler Johnson	0.00	Mike Williams	10.70
WR	Tre Tucker	15.40	Tre Tucker	15.40
RB	Justice Hill	21.60	Justice Hill	21.60
RB	Jerome Ford	15.50	Jerome Ford	15.50
TE	Brock Bowers	5.10	Brock Bowers	5.10
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	2.50	Rashod Bateman	3.30
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	15.50	Marvin Harrison Jr.	15.50
DEF	Texans	3.19	Texans	3.19

Carried by One Guy: Justice Hill, 21.60 points (22.7% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.38 points left. Optimal 111.72 vs. actual 85.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	23.64	Lamar Jackson	23.64
WR	Garrett Wilson	7.10	Garrett Wilson	7.10
WR	Ladd McConkey	17.70	Ladd McConkey	17.70
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	7.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	7.00
RB	Zach Charbonnet	10.40	Zach Charbonnet	10.40
TE	Sam LaPorta	9.30	Sam LaPorta	9.30
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	4.90	Ray-Ray McCloud III	11.98
W/R/T	Zamir White	3.00	Josh Downs	22.30
DEF	Steelers	2.30	Steelers	2.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 23.64 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justice Hill scored 21.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

Fischer

117.89

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Niz

94.79

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 54.68 points left. Optimal 172.57 vs. actual 117.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	14.62	Geno Smith	23.60
WR	Nico Collins	35.10	Nico Collins	35.10
WR	Rashee Rice	0.00	Dontayvion Wicks	24.80
RB	Chuba Hubbard	24.10	Chuba Hubbard	24.10
RB	Brian Robinson	22.30	Brian Robinson	22.30
TE	Cole Kmet	6.40	Cole Kmet	6.40
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	8.20	Rico Dowdle	13.10
W/R/T	De'Von Achane	5.90	Brian Thomas Jr.	21.90
DEF	Dolphins	1.27	Dolphins	1.27

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 35.10 points (29.8% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.83 points left. Optimal 96.62 vs. actual 94.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	16.28	Joe Burrow	16.28
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	17.50	Ja'Marr Chase	17.50
WR	Jaylen Waddle	7.60	Jaylen Waddle	7.60
RB	Kyren Williams	20.40	Kyren Williams	20.40
RB	Ty Chandler	2.30	Ty Chandler	2.30
TE	Mark Andrews	0.00	Mark Andrews	0.00
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	5.10	DeAndre Hopkins	5.10
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	18.10	Wan'Dale Robinson	18.10
DEF	Vikings	7.51	Ravens	9.34

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 20.40 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Nico Collins scored 35.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

Nevans

147.90

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

131.52

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 158.90 vs. actual 147.90.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	27.18	Jared Goff	27.18
WR	Stefon Diggs	18.50	Stefon Diggs	18.50
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	6.80	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.10
RB	Derrick Henry	37.90	Derrick Henry	37.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	13.60	Saquon Barkley	13.60
TE	Dallas Goedert	13.20	Dallas Goedert	13.20
W/R/T	Najee Harris	10.30	Zack Moss	17.80
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.10	Najee Harris	10.30
DEF	Lions	7.32	Lions	7.32

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 37.90 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 131.52 vs. actual 131.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	9.98	Kyler Murray	9.98
WR	DK Metcalf	17.40	DK Metcalf	17.40
WR	Jameson Williams	16.00	Jameson Williams	16.00
RB	Chase Brown	24.24	Chase Brown	24.24
RB	Bucky Irving	12.50	Bucky Irving	12.50
TE	Isaiah Likely	3.60	Isaiah Likely	3.60
W/R/T	Tutu Atwell	12.20	Tutu Atwell	12.20
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	29.10	Jayden Reed	29.10
DEF	Saints	6.50	Saints	6.50

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Reed, 29.10 points (22.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Derrick Henry scored 37.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 24 – 30, 2024

Demich

109.63

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

128.56

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.90 points left. Optimal 139.53 vs. actual 109.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	5.24	Anthony Richardson Sr.	5.24
WR	CeeDee Lamb	23.60	CeeDee Lamb	23.60
WR	Jauan Jennings	11.80	Jauan Jennings	11.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.90
RB	Carson Steele	-0.40	Rachaad White	10.40
TE	Pat Freiermuth	16.70	Pat Freiermuth	16.70
W/R/T	Rachaad White	10.40	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.30
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	2.00	Jordan Whittington	12.20
DEF	49ers	22.39	49ers	22.39

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 23.60 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Malik Nabers scored 25.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.50 points left. Optimal 140.06 vs. actual 128.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	16.74	Dak Prescott	16.74
WR	Zay Flowers	2.00	Allen Lazard	10.80
WR	Malik Nabers	25.10	Malik Nabers	25.10
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	8.20	Antonio Gibson	10.90
RB	Bijan Robinson	11.40	Bijan Robinson	11.40
TE	Zach Ertz	7.20	Zach Ertz	7.20
W/R/T	Mike Evans	23.40	Mike Evans	23.40
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	21.30	Diontae Johnson	21.30
DEF	Browns	13.22	Browns	13.22

Carried by One Guy: Malik Nabers, 25.10 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–4	1.769	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	3–1	1.308	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	4–0	3.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–3	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–3	2.538	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Big Hut	1–3	1.231	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Adam	2–2	1.154	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	4–0	3.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–2	1.923	+3.0	+0.231	1 / 1
Martin	1–3	1.000	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Fischer	4–0	2.846	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Joe Shore	1–3	2.462	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	2–2	1.231	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	2–2	2.615	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4