2024 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

j-mart

113.50

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Demich

142.23

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 130.00 vs. actual 113.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	30.92	Josh Allen	30.92
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	20.50
WR	Rashid Shaheed	0.00	Drake London	18.70
RB	James Conner	3.50	Devin Singletary	18.80
RB	Devin Singletary	18.80	Cam Akers	9.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	13.10	Dalton Kincaid	13.10
W/R/T	Drake London	18.70	Tyjae Spears	10.10
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	9.40	Keon Coleman	9.40
DEF	Cowboys	-1.42	Cowboys	-1.42

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 30.92 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jauan Jennings scored 48.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.60 points left. Optimal 167.83 vs. actual 142.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	5.08	Anthony Richardson Sr.	5.08
WR	CeeDee Lamb	8.70	CeeDee Lamb	8.70
WR	Jauan Jennings	48.50	Jauan Jennings	48.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	27.80
RB	Rachaad White	8.50	Rachaad White	8.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.30	Pat Freiermuth	7.30
W/R/T	Jordan Whittington	5.80	Michael Wilson	14.40
W/R/T	Carson Steele	8.40	Rome Odunze	25.40
DEF	Packers	22.15	Packers	22.15

Carried by One Guy: Jauan Jennings, 48.50 points (34.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

Kev

138.86

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh

103.82

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.10 points left. Optimal 141.96 vs. actual 138.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	28.06	Jayden Daniels	28.06
WR	Amari Cooper	27.60	Amari Cooper	27.60
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.30
RB	Jordan Mason	10.80	Jordan Mason	10.80
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	16.30	Jahmyr Gibbs	16.30
TE	Brenton Strange	9.20	Brenton Strange	9.20
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	5.60	Christian Watson	8.70
W/R/T	James Cook III	18.70	James Cook III	18.70
DEF	Bears	5.30	Bears	5.30

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 28.06 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 116.42 vs. actual 103.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	16.38	Patrick Mahomes	16.38
WR	Davante Adams	8.00	Davante Adams	8.00
WR	Justin Jefferson	20.10	Justin Jefferson	20.10
RB	J.K. Dobbins	8.40	J.K. Dobbins	8.40
RB	Javonte Williams	6.10	Javonte Williams	6.10
TE	Hunter Henry	2.90	Jake Ferguson	15.50
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	6.20	D'Andre Swift	6.20
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	19.20	Khalil Shakir	19.20
DEF	Jets	16.54	Jets	16.54

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 20.10 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

Big Hut

76.53

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam

78.96

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.40 points left. Optimal 76.93 vs. actual 76.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	9.80	C.J. Stroud	9.80
WR	Terry McLaurin	22.00	Terry McLaurin	22.00
WR	Jerry Jeudy	8.70	Jerry Jeudy	8.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	5.80	Josh Jacobs	5.80
RB	Tony Pollard	5.90	Tony Pollard	5.90
TE	Dalton Schultz	3.10	Dalton Schultz	3.10
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	9.60	Tyler Lockett	9.60
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	5.00	Alec Pierce	5.40
DEF	Chiefs	6.63	Chiefs	6.63

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 22.00 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Marvin Harrison Jr. scored 17.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.76 points left. Optimal 95.72 vs. actual 78.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	12.94	Justin Fields	18.40
WR	Calvin Ridley	1.90	Mike Williams	6.40
WR	DeVonta Smith	14.90	DeVonta Smith	14.90
RB	Justice Hill	7.40	Justice Hill	7.40
RB	Jerome Ford	10.00	Jerome Ford	10.00
TE	Brock Bowers	7.10	Brock Bowers	7.10
W/R/T	Tyler Johnson	5.00	Rashod Bateman	11.80
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	17.40	Marvin Harrison Jr.	17.40
DEF	Texans	2.32	Texans	2.32

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Harrison Jr., 17.40 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

Miller

126.21

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

109.28

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.64 points left. Optimal 139.85 vs. actual 126.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	7.98	Caleb Williams	19.32
WR	Chris Olave	20.60	Chris Olave	20.60
WR	George Pickens	10.70	George Pickens	10.70
RB	Samaje Perine	7.00	Jonathan Taylor	28.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	28.50	Ray Davis	9.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.90	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.90
W/R/T	DJ Moore	15.20	DJ Moore	15.20
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	14.60	Darnell Mooney	14.60
DEF	Bills	13.73	Bills	13.73

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 28.50 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.60 points left. Optimal 129.88 vs. actual 109.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	25.98	Lamar Jackson	25.98
WR	Garrett Wilson	14.30	Garrett Wilson	14.30
WR	Ladd McConkey	7.40	Ladd McConkey	7.40
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.50	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.50
RB	Zamir White	3.40	Zach Charbonnet	25.70
TE	Sam LaPorta	5.60	Sam LaPorta	5.60
W/R/T	Zach Charbonnet	25.70	Adam Thielen	13.00
W/R/T	Josh Downs	5.20	Andrei Iosivas	16.20
DEF	Steelers	9.20	Steelers	9.20

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 25.98 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jonathan Taylor scored 28.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

Fischer

125.69

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

92.17

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.90 points left. Optimal 148.59 vs. actual 125.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	25.78	Brock Purdy	25.78
WR	Tyreek Hill	7.00	Nico Collins	12.60
WR	Nico Collins	12.60	Rashee Rice	31.10
RB	Brian Robinson	10.70	Brian Robinson	10.70
RB	De'Von Achane	9.44	De'Von Achane	9.44
TE	Trey McBride	5.50	Trey McBride	5.50
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	31.10	Chuba Hubbard	29.90
W/R/T	Brian Thomas Jr.	9.80	Brian Thomas Jr.	9.80
DEF	Seahawks	13.77	Seahawks	13.77

Carried by One Guy: Rashee Rice, 31.10 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.20 points left. Optimal 104.37 vs. actual 92.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	14.78	Kyler Murray	14.78
WR	DK Metcalf	22.40	DK Metcalf	22.40
WR	Jameson Williams	1.20	Jalen Nailor	12.40
RB	Chase Brown	12.02	Chase Brown	12.02
RB	Bucky Irving	11.94	Bucky Irving	11.94
TE	Mike Gesicki	8.70	Mike Gesicki	8.70
W/R/T	Jalen Nailor	12.40	Alexander Mattison	13.40
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	11.20	Jayden Reed	11.20
DEF	Raiders	-2.47	Raiders	-2.47

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 22.40 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

Krajcik

129.50

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Niz

142.40

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 136.20 vs. actual 129.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Andy Dalton	26.56	Andy Dalton	26.56
WR	Courtland Sutton	13.80	Courtland Sutton	13.80
WR	Christian Kirk	15.90	Christian Kirk	15.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.70	Alvin Kamara	15.70
RB	Breece Hall	18.30	Breece Hall	18.30
TE	Travis Kelce	7.00	Travis Kelce	7.00
W/R/T	David Montgomery	23.20	David Montgomery	23.20
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	6.50	Jalen Tolbert	13.20
DEF	Buccaneers	2.54	Buccaneers	2.54

Carried by One Guy: Andy Dalton, 26.56 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ja'Marr Chase scored 31.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.19 points left. Optimal 162.59 vs. actual 142.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	27.36	Joe Burrow	27.36
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	31.80	DeAndre Hopkins	19.30
WR	Jaylen Waddle	6.60	Ja'Marr Chase	31.80
RB	Austin Ekeler	14.94	Austin Ekeler	14.94
RB	Kyren Williams	31.60	Kyren Williams	31.60
TE	Mark Andrews	0.00	Mark Andrews	0.00
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	13.10	Wan'Dale Robinson	13.10
W/R/T	Tank Dell	11.20	Tank Dell	11.20
DEF	Ravens	5.80	Vikings	13.29

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 31.80 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 17 – 23, 2024

Nevans

169.18

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

122.24

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.98 points left. Optimal 190.16 vs. actual 169.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	14.56	Aaron Rodgers	21.04
WR	Stefon Diggs	19.92	Stefon Diggs	19.92
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	9.80	Brandon Aiyuk	9.80
RB	Derrick Henry	32.40	Derrick Henry	32.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	35.60	Saquon Barkley	35.60
TE	Dallas Goedert	29.00	Dallas Goedert	29.00
W/R/T	Najee Harris	13.60	Tyler Conklin	14.30
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6.90	Zack Moss	20.70
DEF	Lions	7.40	Lions	7.40

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 35.60 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.40 points left. Optimal 154.64 vs. actual 122.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	31.86	Dak Prescott	31.86
WR	Mike Evans	3.70	Allen Lazard	13.80
WR	Zay Flowers	5.30	Jakobi Meyers	21.20
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	0.30	Antonio Gibson	6.70
RB	Bijan Robinson	13.20	Bijan Robinson	13.20
TE	Colby Parkinson	5.10	Colby Parkinson	5.10
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	28.20	Diontae Johnson	28.20
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	28.20	Malik Nabers	28.20
DEF	Browns	6.38	Browns	6.38

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 31.86 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–3	1.538	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	2–1	0.923	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Kev	3–0	2.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–2	1.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–3	1.538	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Big Hut	1–2	0.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	1–2	1.000	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Nevans	3–0	2.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–1	1.385	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	1–2	1.000	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Fischer	3–0	2.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–2	1.692	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Niz	2–1	1.154	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	1–2	1.923	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3