2024 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

j-mart

136.99

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Josh

155.18

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 144.39 vs. actual 136.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	22.10	Josh Allen	22.10
WR	Drake London	10.70	Drake London	10.70
WR	Garrett Wilson	30.00	Garrett Wilson	30.00
RB	Kareem Hunt	20.70	Kareem Hunt	20.70
RB	James Conner	16.90	James Conner	16.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	7.20	Dalton Kincaid	7.20
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.60
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	5.10	Trey Benson	12.50
DEF	Patriots	5.69	Patriots	5.69

Carried by One Guy: Garrett Wilson, 30.00 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: J.K. Dobbins scored 24.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 163.38 vs. actual 155.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	19.00	Sam Darnold	19.00
WR	Justin Jefferson	23.58	Justin Jefferson	23.58
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	11.30	Cedric Tillman	19.50
RB	J.K. Dobbins	24.50	J.K. Dobbins	24.50
RB	Javonte Williams	10.40	Javonte Williams	10.40
TE	Jake Ferguson	14.10	Jake Ferguson	14.10
W/R/T	Davante Adams	22.10	Davante Adams	22.10
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	16.20	CeeDee Lamb	16.20
DEF	Jets	14.00	Jets	14.00

Carried by One Guy: J.K. Dobbins, 24.50 points (15.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

Kev

107.19

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

159.80

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 107.19 vs. actual 107.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	19.86	Jayden Daniels	19.86
WR	Christian Watson	8.70	Christian Watson	8.70
WR	Xavier Legette	13.90	Xavier Legette	13.90
RB	James Cook III	11.90	James Cook III	11.90
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	14.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	14.60
TE	Tucker Kraft	7.60	Tucker Kraft	7.60
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	12.60	Hunter Henry	12.60
W/R/T	Sterling Shepard	10.90	Sterling Shepard	10.90
DEF	Bears	7.13	Bears	7.13

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 19.86 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.64 points left. Optimal 171.44 vs. actual 159.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	9.60	Aaron Rodgers	20.34
WR	Stefon Diggs	0.00	Ray-Ray McCloud III	13.34
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	39.00	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	39.00
RB	Derrick Henry	28.30	Derrick Henry	28.30
RB	Saquon Barkley	34.90	Saquon Barkley	34.90
TE	Mike Gesicki	29.00	Mike Gesicki	29.00
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	13.34	Tutu Atwell	2.60
W/R/T	Tutu Atwell	2.60	Braelon Allen	0.90
DEF	Texans	3.06	Texans	3.06

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 39.00 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

Demich

113.26

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Adam

90.45

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.08 points left. Optimal 123.34 vs. actual 113.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	17.72	Patrick Mahomes	24.54
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	2.40	Trey Palmer	5.66
WR	Rome Odunze	17.40	Rome Odunze	17.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.20	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	14.20	D'Andre Swift	14.20
TE	Taysom Hill	16.00	Taysom Hill	16.00
W/R/T	Rachaad White	12.50	Rachaad White	12.50
W/R/T	DeMario Douglas	10.50	DeMario Douglas	10.50
DEF	Eagles	10.34	Eagles	10.34

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 17.72 points (15.6% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.10 points left. Optimal 99.55 vs. actual 90.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	4.76	Kyler Murray	4.76
WR	Calvin Ridley	12.30	Calvin Ridley	12.30
WR	DeVonta Smith	18.70	DeVonta Smith	18.70
RB	Alexander Mattison	3.60	Alexander Mattison	3.60
RB	Chuba Hubbard	21.20	Chuba Hubbard	21.20
TE	Trey McBride	12.70	Trey McBride	12.70
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	2.10	Raheem Mostert	8.80
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	3.40	Elijah Moore	5.80
DEF	Bengals	11.69	Bengals	11.69

Carried by One Guy: Chuba Hubbard, 21.20 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

Big Hut

96.64

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Martin

95.30

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.24 points left. Optimal 112.88 vs. actual 96.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	11.54	Justin Herbert	19.48
WR	Tyler Lockett	15.30	Tyler Lockett	15.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	15.90	Terry McLaurin	15.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	12.80	Josh Jacobs	12.80
RB	Tony Pollard	20.40	Tony Pollard	20.40
TE	Dalton Schultz	5.10	Dalton Schultz	5.10
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	14.30	Jerry Jeudy	14.30
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	-1.00	Cam Akers	7.30
DEF	Chiefs	2.30	Chiefs	2.30

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 20.40 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 95.30 vs. actual 95.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	23.60	Lamar Jackson	23.60
WR	Josh Downs	12.24	Josh Downs	12.24
WR	Ladd McConkey	11.40	Ladd McConkey	11.40
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	5.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	5.00
RB	Zach Charbonnet	5.30	Zach Charbonnet	5.30
TE	Cade Otton	21.70	Cade Otton	21.70
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	7.60	Keenan Allen	7.60
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	4.80	Sam LaPorta	4.80
DEF	Saints	3.66	Saints	3.66

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 23.60 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tony Pollard scored 20.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

Miller

62.05

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

123.98

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.70 points left. Optimal 76.75 vs. actual 62.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	9.18	Caleb Williams	9.18
WR	Darnell Mooney	19.80	DJ Moore	7.30
WR	Chris Olave	2.30	Darnell Mooney	19.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	8.90	Jonathan Taylor	8.90
RB	Tank Bigsby	3.58	Tank Bigsby	3.58
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.10	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.10
W/R/T	DJ Moore	7.30	Ray Davis	17.00
W/R/T	Jalen Coker	5.60	Jalen Coker	5.60
DEF	Bills	3.29	Bills	3.29

Carried by One Guy: Darnell Mooney, 19.80 points (31.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.40 points left. Optimal 151.38 vs. actual 123.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	17.92	Matthew Stafford	17.92
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.00	Tyreek Hill	12.00
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	6.20	Brian Thomas Jr.	6.20
RB	De'Von Achane	32.10	De'Von Achane	32.10
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	7.90	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	7.90
TE	Brock Bowers	15.50	Brock Bowers	15.50
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	21.70	Demarcus Robinson	27.40
W/R/T	Dontayvion Wicks	0.00	Rico Dowdle	21.70
DEF	Lions	10.66	Lions	10.66

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 32.10 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

Krajcik

144.09

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Joe Shore

157.32

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.90 points left. Optimal 163.99 vs. actual 144.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	18.00	Baker Mayfield	18.00
WR	Courtland Sutton	25.28	Courtland Sutton	25.28
WR	Jordan Addison	16.10	Jordan Addison	16.10
RB	Alvin Kamara	29.50	Alvin Kamara	29.50
RB	Breece Hall	10.50	David Montgomery	12.60
TE	Travis Kelce	24.00	Travis Kelce	24.00
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	4.50	Jalen Tolbert	10.90
W/R/T	David Montgomery	12.60	Quentin Johnston	24.00
DEF	Packers	3.61	Packers	3.61

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 29.50 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 29.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 160.52 vs. actual 157.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	29.90	Jalen Hurts	29.90
WR	Cooper Kupp	23.40	Cooper Kupp	23.40
WR	A.J. Brown	5.60	Jayden Reed	18.46
RB	Joe Mixon	18.60	Joe Mixon	18.60
RB	Chase Brown	28.70	Chase Brown	28.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	5.70	T.J. Hockenson	5.70
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	18.46	Justice Hill	8.80
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	7.32	Bucky Irving	7.32
DEF	Chargers	19.64	Chargers	19.64

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 29.90 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 29 – Nov 4, 2024

Niz

115.55

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

167.85

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.04 points left. Optimal 129.59 vs. actual 115.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	29.14	Joe Burrow	29.14
WR	Khalil Shakir	11.00	Khalil Shakir	11.00
WR	Tank Dell	20.60	Tank Dell	20.60
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.70	Kenneth Walker	13.70
RB	Kyren Williams	10.50	Kyren Williams	10.50
TE	David Njoku	7.90	David Njoku	7.90
W/R/T	Mark Andrews	4.60	Austin Ekeler	18.00
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	7.60	Jaylen Waddle	7.60
DEF	Ravens	10.51	Vikings	11.15

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 29.14 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.22 points left. Optimal 173.07 vs. actual 167.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	12.32	Tua Tagovailoa	17.54
WR	Zay Flowers	31.70	Zay Flowers	31.70
WR	Malik Nabers	14.90	Malik Nabers	14.90
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	22.40	Rhamondre Stevenson	22.40
RB	Bijan Robinson	21.50	Bijan Robinson	21.50
TE	Evan Engram	11.50	Evan Engram	11.50
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	28.60	DeAndre Hopkins	28.60
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	20.50	Jakobi Meyers	20.50
DEF	Commanders	4.43	Commanders	4.43

Carried by One Guy: Zay Flowers, 31.70 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–6	5.154	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Miller	6–3	3.615	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	7–2	6.000	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	2–7	1.923	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Krajcik	3–6	4.846	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–6	2.692	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Adam	3–6	2.538	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	7–2	6.308	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	4–5	5.308	-5.0	-0.385	1 / 3
Martin	2–7	3.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Fischer	8–1	5.615	+1.0	+0.077	2 / 0
Joe Shore	6–3	5.923	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–5	3.846	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	5–4	5.846	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Niz lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9