2024 week 6 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

j-mart

124.64

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Kev

127.66

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.90 points left. Optimal 140.54 vs. actual 124.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	24.40	Josh Allen	24.40
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.70	Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.70
WR	Drake London	19.40	Drake London	19.40
RB	James Conner	6.60	James Conner	6.60
RB	JaMycal Hasty	6.88	JaMycal Hasty	6.88
TE	Dalton Kincaid	11.10	Dalton Kincaid	11.10
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	26.70	Gabe Davis	21.50
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	5.60	Garrett Wilson	26.70
DEF	Eagles	10.26	Eagles	10.26

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Garrett Wilson, 26.70 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chris Godwin Jr. scored 37.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.70 points left. Optimal 148.36 vs. actual 127.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	20.96	Jayden Daniels	20.96
WR	Amari Cooper	8.20	Amari Cooper	8.20
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	37.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	37.50
RB	Jordan Mason	9.20	Jordan Mason	9.20
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.10	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.10
TE	George Kittle	22.80	George Kittle	22.80
W/R/T	Ty Johnson	3.40	Christian Watson	15.80
W/R/T	Tucker Kraft	3.50	Xavier Legette	11.80
DEF	Bears	10.00	Bears	10.00

Carried by One Guy: Chris Godwin Jr., 37.50 points (29.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

Demich

77.42

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

132.15

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.80 points left. Optimal 84.22 vs. actual 77.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	20.74	Bo Nix	20.74
WR	CeeDee Lamb	16.10	CeeDee Lamb	16.10
WR	Jauan Jennings	5.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	12.50
RB	Ameer Abdullah	5.40	Ameer Abdullah	5.40
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	1.70	Ezekiel Elliott	1.70
TE	Pat Freiermuth	3.60	Pat Freiermuth	3.60
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	10.10	Michael Wilson	10.10
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	6.00	Rome Odunze	6.00
DEF	49ers	8.08	49ers	8.08

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 20.74 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.00 points left. Optimal 135.15 vs. actual 132.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	27.10	Jared Goff	27.10
WR	Stefon Diggs	19.70	Stefon Diggs	19.70
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	5.70	Brandon Aiyuk	5.70
RB	Derrick Henry	27.20	Derrick Henry	27.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	7.40	Saquon Barkley	7.40
TE	Dallas Goedert	0.00	Tyler Conklin	3.00
W/R/T	Najee Harris	22.20	Najee Harris	22.20
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	10.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	10.30
DEF	Texans	12.55	Texans	12.55

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 27.20 points (20.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

Krajcik

142.59

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Martin

106.71

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 142.59 vs. actual 142.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	25.62	Jordan Love	25.62
WR	Courtland Sutton	15.30	Courtland Sutton	15.30
WR	Christian Kirk	6.90	Christian Kirk	6.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	17.40	Alvin Kamara	17.40
RB	Breece Hall	23.90	Breece Hall	23.90
TE	Hunter Henry	13.10	Hunter Henry	13.10
W/R/T	David Montgomery	21.00	David Montgomery	21.00
W/R/T	Jalen Tolbert	8.30	Jalen Tolbert	8.30
DEF	Packers	11.07	Packers	11.07

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Love, 25.62 points (18.0% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.30 points left. Optimal 116.01 vs. actual 106.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	20.92	Lamar Jackson	20.92
WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.92	Rashid Shaheed	9.92
WR	Josh Downs	20.84	Josh Downs	20.84
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	-0.10	Zach Charbonnet	4.50
RB	Tyjae Spears	2.70	Tyjae Spears	2.70
TE	Sam LaPorta	12.20	Sam LaPorta	12.20
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	21.10	Keenan Allen	21.10
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	4.80	Cade Otton	9.50
DEF	Steelers	14.33	Steelers	14.33

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 21.10 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

Josh

99.51

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

117.35

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.50 points left. Optimal 124.01 vs. actual 99.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	11.80	Daniel Jones	11.80
WR	Darius Slayton	11.70	Darius Slayton	11.70
WR	Khalil Shakir	3.90	Romeo Doubs	19.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	21.90	D'Andre Swift	21.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	20.90	Kenneth Walker	20.90
TE	Jake Ferguson	4.10	Jake Ferguson	4.10
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	18.20	J.K. Dobbins	18.20
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	4.60	Kimani Vidal	13.10
DEF	Jets	2.41	Jets	2.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 21.90 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brock Purdy scored 24.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.10 points left. Optimal 140.45 vs. actual 117.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	24.10	Brock Purdy	24.10
WR	Dontayvion Wicks	1.90	Dontayvion Wicks	1.90
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	5.70	Brian Thomas Jr.	5.70
RB	Jeremy McNichols	0.90	Rico Dowdle	10.50
RB	Chuba Hubbard	15.30	Chuba Hubbard	15.30
TE	Trey McBride	17.60	Trey McBride	17.60
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	10.50	Cole Kmet	24.00
W/R/T	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	22.70	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	22.70
DEF	Buccaneers	18.65	Buccaneers	18.65

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 24.10 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

Miller

81.22

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

134.71

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.70 points left. Optimal 110.92 vs. actual 81.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	28.64	Caleb Williams	28.64
WR	DJ Moore	6.00	DJ Moore	6.00
WR	Chris Olave	-0.50	George Pickens	8.30
RB	Trey Sermon	2.90	Tyler Goodson	11.04
RB	Tank Bigsby	5.44	Ray Davis	18.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	10.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	10.00
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	14.70	Tee Higgins	14.70
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	6.80	Darnell Mooney	6.80
DEF	Bills	7.24	Bills	7.24

Carried by One Guy: Caleb Williams, 28.64 points (35.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.10 points left. Optimal 149.81 vs. actual 134.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	11.96	Kyler Murray	11.96
WR	DK Metcalf	7.80	A.J. Brown	25.60
WR	Jayden Reed	14.96	Jayden Reed	14.96
RB	Joe Mixon	29.20	Joe Mixon	29.20
RB	Bucky Irving	19.38	Bucky Irving	19.38
TE	Isaiah Likely	4.70	Isaiah Likely	4.70
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	25.60	Alexander Mattison	17.50
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	17.70	Jameson Williams	17.70
DEF	Broncos	3.41	Saints	8.81

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 29.20 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

Big Hut

124.96

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz

105.04

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 129.46 vs. actual 124.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	18.38	C.J. Stroud	18.38
WR	Tyler Lockett	16.50	Tyler Lockett	16.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	23.30	Terry McLaurin	23.30
RB	Josh Jacobs	12.00	Josh Jacobs	12.00
RB	Tony Pollard	17.80	Tony Pollard	17.80
TE	Dalton Schultz	6.70	Dalton Schultz	6.70
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.74	Deebo Samuel Sr.	23.74
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	0.00	Jerry Jeudy	4.50
DEF	Falcons	6.54	Falcons	6.54

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 23.74 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 105.04 vs. actual 105.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	19.82	Joe Burrow	19.82
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	9.40	DeAndre Hopkins	9.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	12.20	Ja'Marr Chase	12.20
RB	Austin Ekeler	11.44	Austin Ekeler	11.44
RB	Dare Ogunbowale	0.80	Dare Ogunbowale	0.80
TE	Mark Andrews	15.60	Mark Andrews	15.60
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	10.00	Wan'Dale Robinson	10.00
W/R/T	Tank Dell	18.70	Tank Dell	18.70
DEF	Ravens	7.08	Ravens	7.08

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 19.82 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 23.74; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 8 – 14, 2024

Adam

66.46

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

136.16

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.02 points left. Optimal 86.48 vs. actual 66.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	21.86	Jalen Hurts	21.86
WR	Calvin Ridley	0.90	DeVonta Smith	15.40
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.00	Rashod Bateman	11.10
RB	Justice Hill	2.54	Justice Hill	2.54
RB	Jerome Ford	1.40	Jerome Ford	1.40
TE	Brock Bowers	16.10	Brock Bowers	16.10
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	15.40	Jaylen Warren	5.32
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	0.00	Jaleel McLaughlin	4.50
DEF	Chargers	8.26	Chargers	8.26

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 21.86 points (32.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.30 points left. Optimal 166.46 vs. actual 136.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	3.22	Dak Prescott	3.22
WR	Mike Evans	5.40	Zay Flowers	24.40
WR	Zay Flowers	24.40	DeMario Douglas	21.20
RB	Antonio Gibson	7.30	Tyler Allgeier	21.80
RB	Bijan Robinson	25.50	Bijan Robinson	25.50
TE	Evan Engram	20.20	Evan Engram	20.20
W/R/T	Allen Lazard	25.40	Allen Lazard	25.40
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	19.80	Diontae Johnson	19.80
DEF	Colts	4.94	Colts	4.94

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 25.50 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–5	3.231	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Miller	4–2	2.077	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	6–0	4.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–5	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	3–3	3.769	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	2–4	2.000	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Adam	2–4	1.231	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	6–0	4.385	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	2–4	3.000	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Martin	1–5	2.077	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Fischer	5–1	3.615	+1.0	+0.077	2 / 0
Joe Shore	3–3	3.846	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	3–3	2.538	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	3–3	3.923	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 6 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 6