2024 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

j-mart

120.27

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Niz

116.40

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.20 points left. Optimal 120.47 vs. actual 120.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	19.82	Josh Allen	19.82
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	8.70	Amon-Ra St. Brown	8.70
WR	Drake London	7.40	Kayshon Boutte	7.60
RB	Kareem Hunt	13.30	Kareem Hunt	13.30
RB	James Conner	14.90	James Conner	14.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	13.10	Dalton Kincaid	13.10
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	18.30	Garrett Wilson	18.30
W/R/T	Keon Coleman	18.00	Keon Coleman	18.00
DEF	Falcons	6.75	Falcons	6.75

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 19.82 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.38 points left. Optimal 138.78 vs. actual 116.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	12.86	Kirk Cousins	28.64
WR	Khalil Shakir	21.90	Khalil Shakir	21.90
WR	Tank Dell	13.50	Tank Dell	13.50
RB	Kenneth Walker	8.50	Kenneth Walker	8.50
RB	Kyren Williams	22.60	Kyren Williams	22.60
TE	David Njoku	17.10	David Njoku	17.10
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	8.50	Mark Andrews	14.60
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.00	Jaylen Waddle	8.50
DEF	Ravens	3.44	Ravens	3.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 22.60 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 19.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

Miller

132.20

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich

88.31

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 132.20 vs. actual 132.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	9.94	Caleb Williams	9.94
WR	DJ Moore	5.40	DJ Moore	5.40
WR	Darnell Mooney	18.60	Darnell Mooney	18.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	20.70	Jonathan Taylor	20.70
RB	Tank Bigsby	10.60	Tank Bigsby	10.60
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	25.10	Kyle Pitts Sr.	25.10
W/R/T	Chris Olave	20.70	Chris Olave	20.70
W/R/T	George Pickens	11.40	George Pickens	11.40
DEF	Bills	9.76	Bills	9.76

Carried by One Guy: Kyle Pitts Sr., 25.10 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.96 points left. Optimal 131.27 vs. actual 88.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	18.18	Bo Nix	29.76
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	2.60	Kalif Raymond	20.20
WR	DeMario Douglas	3.20	Michael Wilson	14.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.50	Aaron Jones Sr.	11.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	20.90	D'Andre Swift	20.90
TE	Pat Freiermuth	3.90	Pat Freiermuth	3.90
W/R/T	Rachaad White	15.70	Rachaad White	15.70
W/R/T	Trey Palmer	5.52	Rome Odunze	8.40
DEF	49ers	6.81	49ers	6.81

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 20.90 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

Adam

151.80

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

113.11

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.90 points left. Optimal 158.70 vs. actual 151.80.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	24.18	Kyler Murray	24.18
WR	Calvin Ridley	24.60	Calvin Ridley	24.60
WR	Puka Nacua	20.10	Puka Nacua	20.10
RB	Alexander Mattison	9.40	Raheem Mostert	16.00
RB	Chuba Hubbard	9.10	Alexander Mattison	9.40
TE	Trey McBride	23.40	Trey McBride	23.40
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	20.50	DeVonta Smith	20.50
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	25.10	Marvin Harrison Jr.	25.10
DEF	Bengals	-4.58	Bengals	-4.58

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Harrison Jr., 25.10 points (16.1% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.12 points left. Optimal 124.23 vs. actual 113.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	15.50	Aaron Rodgers	17.32
WR	Stefon Diggs	12.70	Stefon Diggs	12.70
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.90	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.90
RB	Derrick Henry	14.70	Derrick Henry	14.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	14.10	Saquon Barkley	14.10
TE	Noah Fant	5.20	Tyler Conklin	13.20
W/R/T	Zack Moss	7.90	Najee Harris	18.10
W/R/T	Najee Harris	18.10	Braelon Allen	9.20
DEF	Texans	12.01	Texans	12.01

Carried by One Guy: Najee Harris, 18.10 points (16.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

Josh

148.11

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Martin

163.49

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.50 points left. Optimal 167.61 vs. actual 148.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	18.20	Sam Darnold	18.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	21.50	Justin Jefferson	21.50
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	20.40	Ja'Marr Chase	20.40
RB	J.K. Dobbins	16.80	J.K. Dobbins	16.80
RB	Javonte Williams	9.20	Javonte Williams	9.20
TE	Jake Ferguson	8.30	Jake Ferguson	8.30
W/R/T	Davante Adams	9.40	CeeDee Lamb	41.60
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	41.60	Cedric Tillman	28.90
DEF	Jets	2.71	Jets	2.71

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 41.60 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ladd McConkey scored 31.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 163.49 vs. actual 163.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	24.16	Lamar Jackson	24.16
WR	Keenan Allen	5.90	Keenan Allen	5.90
WR	Ladd McConkey	31.66	Ladd McConkey	31.66
RB	D'Ernest Johnson	3.30	D'Ernest Johnson	3.30
RB	Zach Charbonnet	11.40	Zach Charbonnet	11.40
TE	Cade Otton	29.10	Cade Otton	29.10
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	16.80	Sam LaPorta	16.80
W/R/T	Josh Downs	24.44	Josh Downs	24.44
DEF	Steelers	16.73	Steelers	16.73

Carried by One Guy: Ladd McConkey, 31.66 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

Big Hut

120.70

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

156.62

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.66 points left. Optimal 143.36 vs. actual 120.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	12.40	Justin Herbert	24.06
WR	Tyler Lockett	1.90	Terry McLaurin	19.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	19.50	Jerry Jeudy	12.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	27.50	Josh Jacobs	27.50
RB	Tony Pollard	14.70	Tony Pollard	14.70
TE	Dalton Schultz	9.20	Dalton Schultz	9.20
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.60
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	13.70	Xavier Worthy	13.70
DEF	Chiefs	9.20	Chiefs	9.20

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 27.50 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 156.62 vs. actual 156.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	26.00	Brock Purdy	26.00
WR	Tyreek Hill	13.20	Tyreek Hill	13.20
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	15.00	Brian Thomas Jr.	15.00
RB	Brian Robinson	8.60	Brian Robinson	8.60
RB	De'Von Achane	26.70	De'Von Achane	26.70
TE	Brock Bowers	10.80	Brock Bowers	10.80
W/R/T	Ricky Pearsall	11.70	Ricky Pearsall	11.70
W/R/T	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	25.00	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	25.00
DEF	Lions	19.62	Lions	19.62

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 26.70 points (17.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

Kev

121.50

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

130.50

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 42.00 points left. Optimal 163.50 vs. actual 121.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	24.24	Jayden Daniels	24.24
WR	Amari Cooper	1.30	Darius Slayton	16.80
WR	Troy Franklin	1.90	Xavier Legette	13.40
RB	James Cook III	30.30	James Cook III	30.30
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	22.30	Jahmyr Gibbs	22.30
TE	George Kittle	26.80	George Kittle	26.80
W/R/T	Christian Watson	7.90	Christian Watson	7.90
W/R/T	Jordan Mason	1.80	Tucker Kraft	16.80
DEF	Bears	4.96	Bears	4.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 30.30 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 35.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.45 points left. Optimal 146.95 vs. actual 130.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	35.14	Jalen Hurts	35.14
WR	Cooper Kupp	16.10	Cooper Kupp	16.10
WR	A.J. Brown	13.40	A.J. Brown	13.40
RB	Joe Mixon	25.40	Joe Mixon	25.40
RB	Chase Brown	11.40	Chase Brown	11.40
TE	Hunter Henry	9.50	Hunter Henry	9.50
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	3.80	Jayden Reed	7.76
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	7.76	Bucky Irving	15.40
DEF	Broncos	8.00	Chargers	12.85

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 35.14 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 22 – 28, 2024

Krajcik

107.41

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

139.82

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.46 points left. Optimal 131.87 vs. actual 107.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	5.74	Baker Mayfield	24.30
WR	Courtland Sutton	19.12	Courtland Sutton	19.12
WR	Jordan Addison	4.20	Christian Kirk	7.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	18.20	Alvin Kamara	18.20
RB	Breece Hall	9.90	Breece Hall	9.90
TE	Travis Kelce	25.00	Travis Kelce	25.00
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	5.20	David Montgomery	14.92
W/R/T	David Montgomery	14.92	Jalen Tolbert	7.40
DEF	Packers	5.13	Packers	5.13

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 25.00 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 139.82 vs. actual 139.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	14.66	Tua Tagovailoa	14.66
WR	Zay Flowers	20.50	Zay Flowers	20.50
WR	Malik Nabers	14.10	Malik Nabers	14.10
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	23.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	23.50
RB	Bijan Robinson	23.60	Bijan Robinson	23.60
TE	Evan Engram	13.60	Evan Engram	13.60
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	4.90	DeAndre Hopkins	4.90
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	17.20	Jakobi Meyers	17.20
DEF	Commanders	7.76	Commanders	7.76

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 23.60 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–5	4.538	-0.5	-0.038	1 / 2
Miller	6–2	3.615	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	7–1	5.692	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	1–7	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	3–5	4.154	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	2–6	2.462	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Adam	3–5	2.462	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	6–2	5.385	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	3–5	4.538	-5.0	-0.385	1 / 3
Martin	2–6	3.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Fischer	7–1	5.077	+1.0	+0.077	2 / 0
Joe Shore	5–3	5.077	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–4	3.385	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	4–4	4.846	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8