2024 week 16 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2024

j-mart

104.58

Kev

132.11

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 106.68 vs. actual 104.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	11.16	Josh Allen	11.16
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19.00
WR	Drake London	10.90	Drake London	10.90
RB	Kareem Hunt	15.90	Kareem Hunt	15.90
RB	James Conner	28.60	James Conner	28.60
TE	Mike Gesicki	3.40	Dalton Kincaid	5.50
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	11.40	Garrett Wilson	11.40
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	5.30	Tre Tucker	5.30
DEF	Titans	-1.08	Titans	-1.08

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 28.60 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jayden Daniels scored 34.42; zeroing that score creates a win.

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 146.21 vs. actual 132.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	34.42	Jayden Daniels	34.42
WR	Amari Cooper	2.00	Christian Watson	2.30
WR	Christian Watson	2.30	Devaughn Vele	10.10
RB	James Cook III	29.60	James Cook III	29.60
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	27.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	27.40
TE	George Kittle	20.60	George Kittle	20.60
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	13.90	Hunter Henry	13.90
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	3.50	Tucker Kraft	9.50
DEF	Cardinals	-1.61	Cardinals	-1.61

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 34.42 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2024

Demich

86.11

Krajcik

66.02

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.88 points left. Optimal 104.99 vs. actual 86.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	21.02	Patrick Mahomes	23.70
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	3.90	DeMario Douglas	7.90
WR	Rome Odunze	9.70	Rome Odunze	9.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.30
RB	Rachaad White	11.00	Rachaad White	11.00
TE	Pat Freiermuth	4.60	Pat Freiermuth	4.60
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	8.30	Gus Edwards	20.10
W/R/T	DeMario Douglas	7.90	D'Andre Swift	8.30
DEF	Eagles	7.39	Eagles	7.39

Carried by One Guy: Bo Nix, 21.02 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.84 points left. Optimal 78.86 vs. actual 66.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	11.48	Baker Mayfield	24.32
WR	Jordan Addison	14.50	Jordan Addison	14.50
WR	Quentin Johnston	4.80	Quentin Johnston	4.80
RB	Jamaal Williams	2.36	Jamaal Williams	2.36
RB	Breece Hall	14.00	Breece Hall	14.00
TE	Travis Kelce	8.00	Travis Kelce	8.00
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	10.00	Courtland Sutton	10.00
W/R/T	Jalen Coker	2.80	Jalen Coker	2.80
DEF	49ers	-1.92	49ers	-1.92

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Addison, 14.50 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bo Nix scored 21.02; zeroing that score creates a win.

Consolation

Dec 17 – 23, 2024

Adam

126.16

Niz

104.08

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 133.86 vs. actual 126.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	20.38	Kyler Murray	20.38
WR	Calvin Ridley	16.80	Calvin Ridley	16.80
WR	Puka Nacua	13.60	Puka Nacua	13.60
RB	Chuba Hubbard	34.50	Chuba Hubbard	34.50
RB	Jaylen Warren	14.88	Jaylen Warren	14.88
TE	Trey McBride	5.00	Trey McBride	5.00
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	11.10	Alexander Mattison	15.60
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.90	DeVonta Smith	11.10
DEF	Buccaneers	2.00	Buccaneers	2.00

Carried by One Guy: Chuba Hubbard, 34.50 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.64 points left. Optimal 135.72 vs. actual 104.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	21.98	Joe Burrow	21.98
WR	Jauan Jennings	9.10	Jauan Jennings	9.10
WR	Jaylen Waddle	0.00	Tank Dell	22.04
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.90	Kenneth Walker	13.90
RB	Kyren Williams	21.90	Kyren Williams	21.90
TE	David Njoku	14.60	David Njoku	14.60
W/R/T	Jonnu Smith	12.20	Jonnu Smith	12.20
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	4.20	Mark Andrews	13.80
DEF	Vikings	6.20	Vikings	6.20

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 21.98 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chuba Hubbard scored 34.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2024

Josh

139.62

Fischer

150.26

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.86 points left. Optimal 157.48 vs. actual 139.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	22.94	Sam Darnold	22.94
WR	Justin Jefferson	38.40	Justin Jefferson	38.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	22.40	Ja'Marr Chase	22.40
RB	Najee Harris	4.20	Najee Harris	4.20
RB	Kendre Miller	5.52	Kendre Miller	5.52
TE	Jake Ferguson	10.00	Jake Ferguson	10.00
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	19.50	Ameer Abdullah	20.06
W/R/T	Brenton Strange	2.20	CeeDee Lamb	19.50
DEF	Bills	14.46	Bills	14.46

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 38.40 points (27.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: De'Von Achane scored 33.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.92 points left. Optimal 182.18 vs. actual 150.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	6.00	Brock Purdy	23.12
WR	Nico Collins	13.00	Nico Collins	13.00
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	30.20	Brian Thomas Jr.	30.20
RB	Brian Robinson	2.10	De'Von Achane	33.00
RB	De'Von Achane	33.00	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	16.90
TE	Brock Bowers	20.90	Brock Bowers	20.90
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	11.90	Tyreek Hill	11.90
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	8.10	Rico Dowdle	8.10
DEF	Falcons	25.06	Falcons	25.06

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 33.00 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2024

Nevans

152.30

Joe Shore

110.62

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 152.30 vs. actual 152.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	27.34	Jared Goff	27.34
WR	Davante Adams	19.80	Davante Adams	19.80
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.00	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	24.00
RB	Derrick Henry	22.90	Derrick Henry	22.90
RB	Saquon Barkley	29.00	Saquon Barkley	29.00
TE	Grant Calcaterra	0.00	Grant Calcaterra	0.00
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	5.70	Ray-Ray McCloud III	5.70
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	8.40	Rashod Bateman	8.40
DEF	Ravens	15.16	Ravens	15.16

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 29.00 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 29.60 points left. Optimal 140.22 vs. actual 110.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	4.54	Jalen Hurts	4.54
WR	Cooper Kupp	5.40	A.J. Brown	23.70
WR	A.J. Brown	23.70	Jameson Williams	28.00
RB	Joe Mixon	8.10	Chase Brown	13.90
RB	Chase Brown	13.90	Bucky Irving	18.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	4.70	T.J. Hockenson	4.70
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	14.70	DK Metcalf	14.70
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	18.20	Josh Downs	15.10
DEF	Packers	17.38	Packers	17.38

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 23.70 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 17 – 23, 2024

Miller

144.06

Horgan

115.21

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.74 points left. Optimal 160.80 vs. actual 144.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	24.76	Caleb Williams	24.76
WR	DJ Moore	14.00	DJ Moore	14.00
WR	Tee Higgins	19.80	Tee Higgins	19.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	41.80	Jonathan Taylor	41.80
RB	Tank Bigsby	10.10	Tank Bigsby	10.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.70
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	13.20	Darnell Mooney	13.20
W/R/T	Jalen McMillan	16.70	Jalen McMillan	16.70
DEF	Broncos	2.00	Bengals	18.74

Carried by One Guy: Jonathan Taylor, 41.80 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.24 points left. Optimal 134.45 vs. actual 115.21.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	12.50	Tua Tagovailoa	12.50
WR	Zay Flowers	17.30	Zay Flowers	17.30
WR	Malik Nabers	13.80	Malik Nabers	13.80
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.30
RB	Bijan Robinson	24.30	Bijan Robinson	24.30
TE	Cole Kmet	8.90	Cole Kmet	8.90
W/R/T	Mike Evans	11.90	Mike Evans	11.90
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	6.10	Jerome Ford	25.34
DEF	Commanders	8.11	Commanders	8.11

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 24.30 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jonathan Taylor scored 41.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

2024 week 16 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Consolation

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Playoff

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup