2024 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

j-mart

66.36

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

102.03

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 66.36 vs. actual 66.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	12.36	Geno Smith	12.36
WR	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.60	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.60
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.50
RB	Kareem Hunt	11.70	Kareem Hunt	11.70
RB	James Conner	9.90	James Conner	9.90
TE	Isaiah Likely	0.00	Isaiah Likely	0.00
W/R/T	Noah Brown	13.10	Noah Brown	13.10
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	0.00	Darius Slayton	0.00
DEF	Commanders	5.20	Commanders	5.20

Carried by One Guy: Noah Brown, 13.10 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 107.63 vs. actual 102.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	12.98	Anthony Richardson Sr.	12.98
WR	Tyreek Hill	9.80	Tyreek Hill	9.80
WR	Nico Collins	20.20	Nico Collins	20.20
RB	Brian Robinson	3.40	Devin Singletary	9.00
RB	De'Von Achane	20.60	De'Von Achane	20.60
TE	Brock Bowers	7.80	Brock Bowers	7.80
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	10.80	Rico Dowdle	10.80
W/R/T	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	9.00	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	9.00
DEF	Lions	7.45	Lions	7.45

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 20.60 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

Miller

90.08

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

131.05

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.42 points left. Optimal 105.50 vs. actual 90.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drake Maye	13.48	Caleb Williams	28.90
WR	DJ Moore	28.90	DJ Moore	28.90
WR	George Pickens	8.80	George Pickens	8.80
RB	Jonathan Taylor	3.50	Jonathan Taylor	3.50
RB	Jonathon Brooks	0.70	Jonathon Brooks	0.70
TE	Will Dissly	8.70	Will Dissly	8.70
W/R/T	Ameer Abdullah	17.50	Ameer Abdullah	17.50
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	4.90	Alec Pierce	4.90
DEF	Bears	3.60	Bears	3.60

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 28.90 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.06 points left. Optimal 143.11 vs. actual 131.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	14.72	Baker Mayfield	18.66
WR	Courtland Sutton	29.70	Courtland Sutton	29.70
WR	Quentin Johnston	0.00	Jalen Tolbert	10.20
RB	Nick Chubb	19.00	Nick Chubb	19.00
RB	David Montgomery	16.30	David Montgomery	16.30
TE	Travis Kelce	12.20	Travis Kelce	12.20
W/R/T	Jalen Tolbert	10.20	Jordan Addison	32.20
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	32.20	Sean Tucker	8.12
DEF	Rams	-3.27	Rams	-3.27

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Addison, 32.20 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

Kev

122.49

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Adam

130.47

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.52 points left. Optimal 133.01 vs. actual 122.49.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	30.40	Jayden Daniels	30.40
WR	Christian Watson	0.40	Xavier Legette	9.60
WR	Xavier Legette	9.60	Devaughn Vele	14.00
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	24.90	Jahmyr Gibbs	24.90
RB	Dylan Laube	1.18	Audric Estime	1.50
TE	George Kittle	20.20	George Kittle	20.20
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	9.40	Hunter Henry	9.40
W/R/T	Devaughn Vele	14.00	Tucker Kraft	10.60
DEF	Packers	12.41	Packers	12.41

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 30.40 points (24.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Trey McBride scored 27.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.20 points left. Optimal 144.67 vs. actual 130.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	10.30	Russell Wilson	13.80
WR	Calvin Ridley	14.30	Calvin Ridley	14.30
WR	Elijah Moore	5.10	Puka Nacua	22.70
RB	Chuba Hubbard	15.00	Chuba Hubbard	15.00
RB	Jaylen Warren	15.92	Jaylen Warren	15.92
TE	Trey McBride	27.30	Trey McBride	27.30
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	22.70	Zach Ertz	15.80
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.70	Marvin Harrison Jr.	7.70
DEF	Dolphins	12.15	Dolphins	12.15

Carried by One Guy: Trey McBride, 27.30 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

Nevans

148.87

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

85.79

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 148.87 vs. actual 148.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	10.76	Jared Goff	10.76
WR	Demarcus Robinson	9.50	Demarcus Robinson	9.50
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.70	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.70
RB	Derrick Henry	16.00	Derrick Henry	16.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	48.20	Saquon Barkley	48.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	5.90	Dallas Goedert	5.90
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	12.30	Rashod Bateman	12.30
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	6.80	Joshua Palmer	6.80
DEF	Texans	19.71	Texans	19.71

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 48.20 points (32.4% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.30 points left. Optimal 93.09 vs. actual 85.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	23.10	Sam Darnold	23.10
WR	Justin Jefferson	4.70	Justin Jefferson	4.70
WR	Cedric Tillman	2.80	Romeo Doubs	8.40
RB	J.K. Dobbins	8.90	J.K. Dobbins	8.90
RB	Najee Harris	7.40	Najee Harris	7.40
TE	Ja'Tavion Sanders	7.90	Ja'Tavion Sanders	7.90
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	16.80	CeeDee Lamb	16.80
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	2.40	Emanuel Wilson	4.10
DEF	Cardinals	11.79	Cardinals	11.79

Carried by One Guy: Sam Darnold, 23.10 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

Martin

82.36

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

101.76

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.52 points left. Optimal 104.88 vs. actual 82.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	22.58	Lamar Jackson	22.58
WR	Josh Downs	5.78	Keenan Allen	23.60
WR	Ladd McConkey	14.30	Ladd McConkey	14.30
RB	Zach Charbonnet	2.20	Zach Charbonnet	2.20
RB	Roschon Johnson	8.20	Roschon Johnson	8.20
TE	Sam LaPorta	4.90	Sam LaPorta	4.90
W/R/T	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	12.80	Adam Thielen	8.70
W/R/T	Cade Otton	4.00	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	12.80
DEF	Steelers	7.60	Steelers	7.60

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 22.58 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tua Tagovailoa scored 30.48; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.90 points left. Optimal 114.66 vs. actual 101.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	30.48	Tua Tagovailoa	30.48
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	14.50	DeAndre Hopkins	14.50
WR	Zay Flowers	11.20	Jakobi Meyers	24.10
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.30	Rhamondre Stevenson	3.30
RB	Jerome Ford	5.14	Jerome Ford	5.14
TE	Luke Schoonmaker	14.50	Luke Schoonmaker	14.50
W/R/T	Mike Evans	11.80	Mike Evans	11.80
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	12.40	Malik Nabers	12.40
DEF	49ers	-1.56	49ers	-1.56

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 30.48 points (29.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

Big Hut

131.94

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Joe Shore

144.18

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.86 points left. Optimal 138.80 vs. actual 131.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	17.62	Justin Herbert	17.62
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	4.14	Terry McLaurin	23.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	23.20	Wan'Dale Robinson	9.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	7.80	Josh Jacobs	30.60
RB	Tony Pollard	23.90	Tony Pollard	23.90
TE	Theo Johnson	6.90	Theo Johnson	6.90
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	30.60	Jerry Jeudy	14.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	14.50	Xavier Worthy	9.10
DEF	Chiefs	3.28	Chiefs	3.28

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 30.60 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bucky Irving scored 27.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.46 points left. Optimal 157.64 vs. actual 144.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	15.06	Matthew Stafford	19.22
WR	Cooper Kupp	20.00	Cooper Kupp	20.00
WR	A.J. Brown	24.90	A.J. Brown	24.90
RB	Joe Mixon	9.50	Joe Mixon	9.50
RB	Bucky Irving	27.20	Bucky Irving	27.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	20.40	T.J. Hockenson	20.40
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	9.90	Cole Kmet	13.40
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	6.00	Jameson Williams	11.80
DEF	Broncos	11.22	Broncos	11.22

Carried by One Guy: Bucky Irving, 27.20 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 19 – 25, 2024

Demich

117.30

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

98.41

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.34 points left. Optimal 126.64 vs. actual 117.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	19.42	Patrick Mahomes	28.76
WR	DeMario Douglas	11.30	DeMario Douglas	11.30
WR	Rome Odunze	8.90	Rome Odunze	8.90
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	21.90
RB	D'Andre Swift	9.50	D'Andre Swift	9.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	9.90	Pat Freiermuth	9.90
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.60	Michael Pittman Jr.	15.60
W/R/T	Rachaad White	11.70	Rachaad White	11.70
DEF	Eagles	9.08	Eagles	9.08

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 21.90 points (18.7% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 34.68 points left. Optimal 133.09 vs. actual 98.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tommy DeVito	10.76	Tommy DeVito	10.76
WR	Jauan Jennings	9.00	Jauan Jennings	9.00
WR	Tank Dell	10.20	Tank Dell	10.20
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.30	Kenneth Walker	13.30
RB	Kyren Williams	11.20	Kyren Williams	11.20
TE	David Njoku	3.90	Mark Andrews	15.60
W/R/T	Jonnu Smith	23.70	Jonnu Smith	23.70
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	7.42	Jaylen Waddle	30.40
DEF	Vikings	8.93	Vikings	8.93

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jonnu Smith, 23.70 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Aaron Jones Sr. scored 21.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–8	6.231	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Miller	7–5	4.462	+7.5	+0.577	3 / 0
Kev	7–5	6.615	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Demich	5–7	3.615	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Krajcik	5–7	7.000	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Big Hut	4–8	3.923	+3.5	+0.269	3 / 2
Adam	5–7	4.538	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	9–3	8.462	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	5–7	6.538	-6.0	-0.462	2 / 4
Martin	3–9	4.462	+1.5	+0.115	2 / 3
Fischer	11–1	7.231	+1.5	+0.115	3 / 0
Joe Shore	9–3	8.769	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–8	5.769	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Horgan	6–6	6.385	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1

2024 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12