2024 week 5 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

j-mart

155.42

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

86.97

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.10 points left. Optimal 162.52 vs. actual 155.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	14.64	Josh Allen	14.64
WR	Drake London	35.40	Drake London	35.40
WR	Garrett Wilson	31.10	Garrett Wilson	31.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	20.70	Kareem Hunt	20.70
RB	James Conner	14.00	James Conner	14.00
TE	Dalton Kincaid	5.40	Dalton Kincaid	5.40
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.00	JuJu Smith-Schuster	22.00
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	4.80	Keon Coleman	11.90
DEF	Cowboys	7.38	Cowboys	7.38

Carried by One Guy: Drake London, 35.40 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.30 points left. Optimal 102.27 vs. actual 86.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	23.24	Trevor Lawrence	23.24
WR	Mike Williams	4.50	Tre Tucker	4.60
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.60	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.60
RB	Justice Hill	3.50	Raheem Mostert	11.80
RB	Jerome Ford	7.90	Jerome Ford	7.90
TE	Brock Bowers	23.70	Brock Bowers	23.70
W/R/T	Cam Akers	12.70	Cam Akers	12.70
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	4.60	Jaleel McLaughlin	11.50
DEF	Raiders	1.23	Raiders	1.23

Carried by One Guy: Brock Bowers, 23.70 points (27.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

Krajcik

101.66

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Big Hut

89.83

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.50 points left. Optimal 118.16 vs. actual 101.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	15.96	Jordan Love	15.96
WR	Courtland Sutton	5.20	Christian Kirk	12.80
WR	Christian Kirk	12.80	Jalen Tolbert	21.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	12.60	Alvin Kamara	12.60
RB	Breece Hall	6.70	Breece Hall	6.70
TE	Travis Kelce	16.00	Travis Kelce	16.00
W/R/T	Demarcus Robinson	11.80	Demarcus Robinson	11.80
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	6.60	Jordan Addison	6.60
DEF	Packers	14.00	Packers	14.00

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 16.00 points (15.7% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.30 points left. Optimal 120.13 vs. actual 89.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	17.94	C.J. Stroud	17.94
WR	Terry McLaurin	15.40	Tyler Lockett	11.50
WR	Jerry Jeudy	2.60	Terry McLaurin	15.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	16.40	Josh Jacobs	16.40
RB	Eric Gray	7.28	Eric Gray	7.28
TE	Dalton Schultz	7.40	Dalton Schultz	7.40
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	3.00	Alec Pierce	24.40
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	11.80	Xavier Worthy	11.80
DEF	Chiefs	8.01	Chiefs	8.01

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 17.94 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 16.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

Kev

129.88

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Martin

129.41

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.70 points left. Optimal 142.58 vs. actual 129.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	19.72	Jayden Daniels	19.72
WR	Amari Cooper	10.00	Amari Cooper	10.00
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	11.60	Chris Godwin Jr.	11.60
RB	James Cook III	17.90	James Cook III	17.90
RB	Jordan Mason	8.80	Jordan Mason	8.80
TE	Tucker Kraft	24.80	Tucker Kraft	24.80
W/R/T	George Kittle	20.40	George Kittle	20.40
W/R/T	Xavier Legette	1.80	Roschon Johnson	14.50
DEF	Bears	14.86	Bears	14.86

Carried by One Guy: Tucker Kraft, 24.80 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 129.41 vs. actual 129.41.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	35.42	Lamar Jackson	35.42
WR	Rashid Shaheed	19.56	Rashid Shaheed	19.56
WR	Josh Downs	16.12	Josh Downs	16.12
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.00
RB	Zach Charbonnet	6.00	Zach Charbonnet	6.00
TE	Cade Otton	7.40	Cade Otton	7.40
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	6.30	Keenan Allen	6.30
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	12.60	Ray-Ray McCloud III	12.60
DEF	Steelers	14.01	Steelers	14.01

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 35.42 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tucker Kraft scored 24.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

Nevans

121.68

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Fischer

117.15

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 121.68 vs. actual 121.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	11.76	Aaron Rodgers	11.76
WR	Stefon Diggs	14.20	Stefon Diggs	14.20
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	24.70	Brandon Aiyuk	24.70
RB	Derrick Henry	16.60	Derrick Henry	16.60
RB	Zack Moss	8.20	Zack Moss	8.20
TE	Tyler Conklin	11.50	Tyler Conklin	11.50
W/R/T	Najee Harris	9.70	Najee Harris	9.70
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.10	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.10
DEF	Seahawks	11.92	Seahawks	11.92

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Aiyuk, 24.70 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.70 points left. Optimal 145.85 vs. actual 117.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	13.06	Brock Purdy	13.06
WR	Nico Collins	15.80	Nico Collins	15.80
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	25.20	Brian Thomas Jr.	25.20
RB	Chuba Hubbard	17.50	Rico Dowdle	19.40
RB	De'Von Achane	2.70	Chuba Hubbard	17.50
TE	Trey McBride	11.30	Trey McBride	11.30
W/R/T	Brian Robinson	13.80	Brian Robinson	13.80
W/R/T	Dontayvion Wicks	4.00	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	16.00
DEF	Commanders	13.79	Commanders	13.79

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brian Thomas Jr., 25.20 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brandon Aiyuk scored 24.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

Demich

85.98

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

125.13

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.50 points left. Optimal 96.48 vs. actual 85.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	4.26	Sam Darnold	4.26
WR	CeeDee Lamb	11.40	CeeDee Lamb	11.40
WR	Jauan Jennings	2.30	Michael Wilson	12.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	6.30	Aaron Jones Sr.	6.30
RB	Rachaad White	9.60	Rachaad White	9.60
TE	Pat Freiermuth	9.20	Pat Freiermuth	9.20
W/R/T	Michael Pittman Jr.	14.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	14.70
W/R/T	Jordan Whittington	15.90	Jordan Whittington	15.90
DEF	49ers	12.32	49ers	12.32

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Whittington, 15.90 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.13 vs. actual 125.13.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	24.10	Kyler Murray	24.10
WR	DK Metcalf	7.50	DK Metcalf	7.50
WR	Jayden Reed	13.70	Jayden Reed	13.70
RB	Chase Brown	16.40	Chase Brown	16.40
RB	Bucky Irving	6.38	Bucky Irving	6.38
TE	Isaiah Likely	16.30	Isaiah Likely	16.30
W/R/T	Alexander Mattison	10.10	Alexander Mattison	10.10
W/R/T	Tutu Atwell	12.50	Tutu Atwell	12.50
DEF	Broncos	18.15	Broncos	18.15

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 24.10 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

Josh

136.35

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Niz

167.66

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.12 points left. Optimal 143.47 vs. actual 136.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	15.44	Geno Smith	22.56
WR	Darius Slayton	28.20	Darius Slayton	28.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	15.20	Justin Jefferson	15.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	20.00	D'Andre Swift	20.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	14.60	Kenneth Walker	14.60
TE	Jake Ferguson	13.00	Jake Ferguson	13.00
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	3.00	Zach Ertz	3.00
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	16.10	Javonte Williams	16.10
DEF	Jets	10.81	Jets	10.81

Carried by One Guy: Darius Slayton, 28.20 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ja'Marr Chase scored 43.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.58 points left. Optimal 168.24 vs. actual 167.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	35.78	Kirk Cousins	36.36
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	43.30	Ja'Marr Chase	43.30
WR	Jaylen Waddle	8.60	Jaylen Waddle	8.60
RB	Austin Ekeler	12.62	Austin Ekeler	12.62
RB	Kyren Williams	17.50	Kyren Williams	17.50
TE	Mark Andrews	9.50	Mark Andrews	9.50
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	16.00	Wan'Dale Robinson	16.00
W/R/T	Tank Dell	7.30	Tank Dell	7.30
DEF	Vikings	17.06	Vikings	17.06

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 43.30 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 1 – 7, 2024

Miller

128.05

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

117.97

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 62.72 points left. Optimal 190.77 vs. actual 128.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	15.94	Caleb Williams	25.56
WR	DJ Moore	29.50	DJ Moore	29.50
WR	Tee Higgins	29.30	Tee Higgins	29.30
RB	Miles Sanders	5.30	Trey Sermon	18.30
RB	Trey Sermon	18.30	Tank Bigsby	27.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.80	Kyle Pitts Sr.	15.80
W/R/T	Chris Olave	3.00	Darnell Mooney	33.50
W/R/T	George Pickens	5.60	George Pickens	5.60
DEF	Bills	5.31	Bills	5.31

Carried by One Guy: DJ Moore, 29.50 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.62 points left. Optimal 137.59 vs. actual 117.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	18.38	Dak Prescott	18.38
WR	Mike Evans	23.20	Mike Evans	23.20
WR	Zay Flowers	21.00	Zay Flowers	21.00
RB	Antonio Gibson	7.08	Rhamondre Stevenson	19.20
RB	Bijan Robinson	10.70	Bijan Robinson	10.70
TE	Colby Parkinson	12.20	Colby Parkinson	12.20
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	5.90	Allen Lazard	13.40
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	13.20	Jakobi Meyers	13.20
DEF	Dolphins	6.31	Dolphins	6.31

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 23.20 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DJ Moore scored 29.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	1–4	2.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	4–1	1.923	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	5–0	4.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–4	1.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–3	2.769	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	1–4	1.385	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Adam	2–3	1.231	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	5–0	3.615	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Josh	2–3	2.769	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Martin	1–4	1.692	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Fischer	4–1	3.154	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Joe Shore	2–3	3.000	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	3–2	2.231	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	2–3	3.000	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 5 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 5