2024 week 2 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

j-mart

104.77

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

112.01

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.30 points left. Optimal 127.07 vs. actual 104.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	9.76	Josh Allen	9.76
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	24.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	24.90
WR	Keon Coleman	0.00	Rashid Shaheed	20.90
RB	James Conner	21.40	James Conner	21.40
RB	Devin Singletary	14.50	Devin Singletary	14.50
TE	Dalton Kincaid	7.30	Dalton Kincaid	7.30
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	7.30	Khalil Herbert	8.70
W/R/T	Drake London	17.40	Drake London	17.40
DEF	Cowboys	2.21	Cowboys	2.21

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 24.90 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 25.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.26 points left. Optimal 128.27 vs. actual 112.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	10.78	Aaron Rodgers	15.14
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.70	Brandon Aiyuk	8.30
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	8.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	25.70
RB	Derrick Henry	16.60	Derrick Henry	16.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	17.60	Saquon Barkley	17.60
TE	Dallas Goedert	6.80	Dallas Goedert	6.80
W/R/T	Najee Harris	8.40	Najee Harris	8.40
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	25.70	Braelon Allen	19.60
DEF	Lions	10.13	Lions	10.13

Carried by One Guy: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 25.70 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

Miller

100.11

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Big Hut

96.15

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.94 points left. Optimal 106.05 vs. actual 100.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	7.36	Trevor Lawrence	13.30
WR	Chris Olave	12.80	Chris Olave	12.80
WR	George Pickens	4.90	George Pickens	4.90
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	5.20	Ezekiel Elliott	5.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.50	Jonathan Taylor	17.50
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	5.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	11.30	DJ Moore	11.30
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	17.80	Darnell Mooney	17.80
DEF	Bills	18.25	Bills	18.25

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 18.25 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.20 points left. Optimal 117.35 vs. actual 96.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	14.30	C.J. Stroud	14.30
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.42	Deebo Samuel Sr.	20.42
WR	Terry McLaurin	8.20	Terry McLaurin	8.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	15.10	Josh Jacobs	15.10
RB	Tony Pollard	15.20	Tony Pollard	15.20
TE	Dalton Schultz	4.10	Dalton Schultz	4.10
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	3.50	Jerry Jeudy	12.30
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	4.20	Alec Pierce	16.60
DEF	Chiefs	11.13	Chiefs	11.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 20.42 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bills scored 18.25; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

Adam

151.61

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Josh

153.46

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 155.31 vs. actual 151.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	23.82	Jalen Hurts	23.82
WR	Calvin Ridley	24.70	Calvin Ridley	24.70
WR	Tyler Johnson	4.00	Rashod Bateman	7.00
RB	Justice Hill	5.20	Gus Edwards	5.90
RB	Jerome Ford	7.40	Jerome Ford	7.40
TE	Brock Bowers	18.80	Brock Bowers	18.80
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	20.60	DeVonta Smith	20.60
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	31.00	Marvin Harrison Jr.	31.00
DEF	Texans	16.09	Texans	16.09

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Marvin Harrison Jr., 31.00 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 28.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.00 points left. Optimal 154.46 vs. actual 153.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	12.94	Patrick Mahomes	12.94
WR	Justin Jefferson	25.30	Justin Jefferson	25.30
WR	Khalil Shakir	10.60	Khalil Shakir	10.60
RB	J.K. Dobbins	22.10	J.K. Dobbins	22.10
RB	Javonte Williams	11.50	Javonte Williams	11.50
TE	Hunter Henry	20.90	Hunter Henry	20.90
W/R/T	Davante Adams	28.00	Davante Adams	28.00
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	8.20	Romeo Doubs	9.20
DEF	Jets	13.92	Jets	13.92

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 28.00 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

Demich

67.53

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Martin

94.88

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.10 points left. Optimal 78.63 vs. actual 67.53.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	9.86	Anthony Richardson Sr.	9.86
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.00	CeeDee Lamb	19.00
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.10	Michael Pittman Jr.	5.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.80
RB	Rachaad White	3.30	Jaylen Warren	8.36
TE	Juwan Johnson	0.00	Pat Freiermuth	7.90
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	3.90	Michael Wilson	5.10
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	8.36	Rome Odunze	5.30
DEF	49ers	8.21	49ers	8.21

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 19.00 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.40 points left. Optimal 98.28 vs. actual 94.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	16.38	Lamar Jackson	16.38
WR	Ray-Ray McCloud III	7.50	Ray-Ray McCloud III	7.50
WR	Garrett Wilson	10.20	Garrett Wilson	10.20
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	14.80
RB	Zamir White	6.80	Zamir White	6.80
TE	Sam LaPorta	3.30	Cole Kmet	6.70
W/R/T	Zach Charbonnet	17.90	Zach Charbonnet	17.90
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	4.60	Ladd McConkey	4.60
DEF	Steelers	13.40	Steelers	13.40

Carried by One Guy: Zach Charbonnet, 17.90 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

Krajcik

102.70

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

155.40

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 116.30 vs. actual 102.70.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	5.50	Tua Tagovailoa	5.50
WR	Courtland Sutton	3.60	Greg Dortch	3.70
WR	Christian Kirk	0.90	Jalen Tolbert	14.20
RB	Alvin Kamara	46.00	Alvin Kamara	46.00
RB	Breece Hall	24.40	Breece Hall	24.40
TE	Travis Kelce	1.60	Travis Kelce	1.60
W/R/T	David Montgomery	17.00	Jamaal Williams	3.90
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	3.70	David Montgomery	17.00
DEF	Dolphins	0.00	Dolphins	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 46.00 points (44.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.84 points left. Optimal 163.24 vs. actual 155.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	15.96	Baker Mayfield	18.80
WR	Tyreek Hill	6.60	Nico Collins	29.50
WR	Rashee Rice	18.50	Rashee Rice	18.50
RB	Brian Robinson	16.60	Brian Robinson	16.60
RB	De'Von Achane	29.50	De'Von Achane	29.50
TE	Trey McBride	18.70	Trey McBride	18.70
W/R/T	Nico Collins	29.50	Chuba Hubbard	11.60
W/R/T	Brian Thomas Jr.	11.40	Brian Thomas Jr.	11.40
DEF	Seahawks	8.64	Seahawks	8.64

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 29.50 points (19.0% of positive starter points); De'Von Achane, 29.50 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

Joe Shore

110.02

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Horgan

117.72

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 115.72 vs. actual 110.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	28.54	Kyler Murray	28.54
WR	Cooper Kupp	7.70	Cooper Kupp	7.70
WR	DK Metcalf	30.90	DK Metcalf	30.90
RB	Joe Mixon	8.00	Joe Mixon	8.00
RB	Jaylen Wright	0.40	Alexander Mattison	6.10
TE	Colby Parkinson	2.20	Colby Parkinson	2.20
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	14.40	Jameson Williams	14.40
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	6.60	Jayden Reed	6.60
DEF	Chargers	11.28	Chargers	11.28

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 30.90 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Malik Nabers scored 30.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 131.12 vs. actual 117.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	12.92	Dak Prescott	12.92
WR	Mike Evans	7.20	Zay Flowers	22.10
WR	Zay Flowers	22.10	Malik Nabers	30.70
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	17.00	Rhamondre Stevenson	17.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	16.20	Bijan Robinson	16.20
TE	Taysom Hill	2.90	Taysom Hill	2.90
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	4.50	Antonio Gibson	11.30
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	30.70	Tyler Allgeier	7.50
DEF	Jaguars	4.20	Browns	10.50

Carried by One Guy: Malik Nabers, 30.70 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 10 – 16, 2024

Kev

150.44

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Niz

89.67

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.51 points left. Optimal 153.95 vs. actual 150.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	13.44	Jayden Daniels	13.44
WR	Amari Cooper	4.10	Amari Cooper	4.10
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	26.70	Chris Godwin Jr.	26.70
RB	James Cook III	28.50	James Cook III	28.50
RB	Isiah Pacheco	16.10	Isiah Pacheco	16.10
TE	George Kittle	20.60	George Kittle	20.60
W/R/T	Jordan Mason	19.40	Jordan Mason	19.40
W/R/T	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.60
DEF	Colts	4.00	Bears	7.51

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 28.50 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.22 points left. Optimal 95.89 vs. actual 89.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	17.22	Kirk Cousins	17.54
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	7.50	Ja'Marr Chase	7.50
WR	Jaylen Waddle	8.50	Jaylen Waddle	8.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	12.20	Austin Ekeler	12.20
RB	Kyren Williams	15.44	Kyren Williams	15.44
TE	Mark Andrews	9.10	Mark Andrews	9.10
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	9.80	Wan'Dale Robinson	9.80
W/R/T	Tank Dell	2.30	Ty Chandler	8.20
DEF	Ravens	7.61	Ravens	7.61

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 17.22 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–2	1.154	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	1–1	0.308	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Kev	2–0	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–2	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–2	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–1	0.615	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	0–2	0.923	-4.5	-0.346	0 / 1
Nevans	2–0	1.231	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	2–0	1.154	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	1–1	0.692	+4.0	+0.308	1 / 1
Fischer	2–0	1.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–1	1.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Niz	1–1	0.231	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	1–1	1.462	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 2 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 2