2024 week 14 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

j-mart

140.42

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

103.28

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.00 points left. Optimal 142.42 vs. actual 140.42.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	53.88	Josh Allen	53.88
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	10.30	Amon-Ra St. Brown	10.30
WR	Drake London	12.00	Drake London	12.00
RB	Kareem Hunt	3.90	Kareem Hunt	3.90
RB	James Conner	22.20	James Conner	22.20
TE	Mike Gesicki	5.40	Mike Gesicki	5.40
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	20.40	Darius Slayton	4.70
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	2.70	Garrett Wilson	20.40
DEF	Titans	9.64	Titans	9.64

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 53.88 points (38.4% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.00 points left. Optimal 116.28 vs. actual 103.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	24.22	Jalen Hurts	24.22
WR	Cooper Kupp	20.20	Cooper Kupp	20.20
WR	A.J. Brown	8.30	A.J. Brown	8.30
RB	Chase Brown	24.30	Chase Brown	24.30
RB	Bucky Irving	2.80	Bucky Irving	2.80
TE	T.J. Hockenson	8.50	T.J. Hockenson	8.50
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	8.90	DK Metcalf	8.90
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	0.00	Jameson Williams	13.00
DEF	Chargers	6.06	Chargers	6.06

Carried by One Guy: Chase Brown, 24.30 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 53.88; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

Miller

77.74

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

169.62

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.04 points left. Optimal 78.78 vs. actual 77.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	14.06	Caleb Williams	14.06
WR	DJ Moore	10.90	DJ Moore	10.90
WR	Darnell Mooney	22.20	Darnell Mooney	22.20
RB	Ameer Abdullah	2.58	Ameer Abdullah	2.58
RB	Tank Bigsby	13.20	Tank Bigsby	13.20
TE	Will Dissly	3.90	Will Dissly	3.90
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	4.30	Tee Higgins	4.30
W/R/T	Kyle Pitts Sr.	2.40	Khalil Herbert	3.44
DEF	Cowboys	4.20	Cowboys	4.20

Carried by One Guy: Darnell Mooney, 22.20 points (28.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.02 points left. Optimal 181.64 vs. actual 169.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	36.58	Sam Darnold	36.58
WR	CeeDee Lamb	21.40	CeeDee Lamb	21.40
WR	Justin Jefferson	34.20	Justin Jefferson	34.20
RB	Najee Harris	11.30	Najee Harris	11.30
RB	Sincere McCormick	10.90	Sincere McCormick	10.90
TE	Noah Gray	6.60	Juwan Johnson	15.00
W/R/T	Ja'Marr Chase	47.10	Ja'Marr Chase	47.10
W/R/T	Jake Ferguson	6.20	Kendre Miller	9.82
DEF	Bills	-4.66	Bills	-4.66

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 47.10 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

Kev

97.43

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

158.26

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 105.63 vs. actual 97.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Will Levis	7.02	Will Levis	7.02
WR	Amari Cooper	15.50	Amari Cooper	15.50
WR	Christian Watson	15.40	Christian Watson	15.40
RB	James Cook III	4.90	Isiah Pacheco	8.10
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.30	Jahmyr Gibbs	19.30
TE	George Kittle	23.10	George Kittle	23.10
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	8.10	Tucker Kraft	13.10
W/R/T	Xavier Legette	5.90	Xavier Legette	5.90
DEF	Cardinals	-1.79	Cardinals	-1.79

Carried by One Guy: George Kittle, 23.10 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.86 points left. Optimal 163.12 vs. actual 158.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	14.54	Baker Mayfield	19.00
WR	Jordan Addison	41.30	Jordan Addison	41.30
WR	Quentin Johnston	15.80	Quentin Johnston	15.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	12.90	Alvin Kamara	12.90
RB	Isaac Guerendo	26.80	Isaac Guerendo	26.80
TE	Travis Kelce	9.50	Travis Kelce	9.50
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	4.80	David Montgomery	19.40
W/R/T	David Montgomery	19.40	Sean Tucker	5.20
DEF	49ers	13.22	49ers	13.22

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Addison, 41.30 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

Demich

122.99

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Big Hut

106.01

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.40 points left. Optimal 134.39 vs. actual 122.99.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	14.10	Patrick Mahomes	14.10
WR	Michael Wilson	13.70	Michael Wilson	13.70
WR	Rome Odunze	20.20	Rome Odunze	20.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.40	Aaron Jones Sr.	16.40
RB	Rachaad White	24.90	Rachaad White	24.90
TE	Pat Freiermuth	13.80	Pat Freiermuth	13.80
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	9.60	Sterling Shepard	10.30
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	5.00	Isaiah Davis	15.70
DEF	Eagles	5.29	Eagles	5.29

Carried by One Guy: Rachaad White, 24.90 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 106.01 vs. actual 106.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	13.72	Justin Herbert	13.72
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	5.50	Deebo Samuel Sr.	5.50
WR	Jerry Jeudy	17.40	Jerry Jeudy	17.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	24.60	Josh Jacobs	24.60
RB	Tony Pollard	16.40	Tony Pollard	16.40
TE	Noah Fant	4.80	Noah Fant	4.80
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	7.80	Wan'Dale Robinson	7.80
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	9.60	Xavier Worthy	9.60
DEF	Chiefs	6.19	Chiefs	6.19

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 24.60 points (23.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Rachaad White scored 24.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

Nevans

136.81

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Martin

138.28

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 136.81 vs. actual 136.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	22.02	Jared Goff	22.02
WR	Davante Adams	27.90	Davante Adams	27.90
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.60	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	16.40	Saquon Barkley	16.40
RB	Braelon Allen	12.10	Braelon Allen	12.10
TE	Grant Calcaterra	10.60	Grant Calcaterra	10.60
W/R/T	Demarcus Robinson	0.00	Demarcus Robinson	0.00
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	16.72	Ray-Ray McCloud III	16.72
DEF	Saints	11.47	Saints	11.47

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 27.90 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Zach Charbonnet scored 40.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 142.28 vs. actual 138.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jameis Winston	15.28	Jameis Winston	15.28
WR	Adam Thielen	21.20	Adam Thielen	21.20
WR	Joshua Palmer	13.80	Joshua Palmer	13.80
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.00	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.00
RB	Zach Charbonnet	40.30	Zach Charbonnet	40.30
TE	Sam LaPorta	10.40	Sam LaPorta	10.40
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	6.00	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.10
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	9.10	Cade Otton	10.00
DEF	Steelers	11.20	Steelers	11.20

Carried by One Guy: Zach Charbonnet, 40.30 points (29.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

Fischer

145.72

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

118.79

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 145.72 vs. actual 145.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	24.10	Brock Purdy	24.10
WR	Tyreek Hill	30.10	Tyreek Hill	30.10
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	16.60	Brian Thomas Jr.	16.60
RB	Rico Dowdle	17.10	Rico Dowdle	17.10
RB	De'Von Achane	18.90	De'Von Achane	18.90
TE	Brock Bowers	8.20	Brock Bowers	8.20
W/R/T	Ricky Pearsall	1.50	Ricky Pearsall	1.50
W/R/T	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	19.30	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	19.30
DEF	Bengals	9.92	Bengals	9.92

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 30.10 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.48 points left. Optimal 122.27 vs. actual 118.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	25.54	Tua Tagovailoa	25.54
WR	Mike Evans	10.90	Mike Evans	10.90
WR	Malik Nabers	14.90	Malik Nabers	14.90
RB	Jerome Ford	8.82	Tyler Allgeier	12.30
RB	Bijan Robinson	20.10	Bijan Robinson	20.10
TE	Evan Engram	7.30	Evan Engram	7.30
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	13.20	DeAndre Hopkins	13.20
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	13.70	Jakobi Meyers	13.70
DEF	Dolphins	4.33	Dolphins	4.33

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 25.54 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 30.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 3 – 9, 2024

Adam

151.67

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Niz

160.82

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 151.67 vs. actual 151.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	17.96	Kyler Murray	17.96
WR	Calvin Ridley	12.90	Calvin Ridley	12.90
WR	Puka Nacua	43.80	Puka Nacua	43.80
RB	Chuba Hubbard	20.70	Chuba Hubbard	20.70
RB	Jaylen Warren	9.20	Jaylen Warren	9.20
TE	Trey McBride	14.00	Trey McBride	14.00
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	13.70	DeVonta Smith	13.70
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	8.90	Marvin Harrison Jr.	8.90
DEF	Buccaneers	10.51	Buccaneers	10.51

Carried by One Guy: Puka Nacua, 43.80 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jauan Jennings scored 28.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 160.82 vs. actual 160.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	26.56	Joe Burrow	26.56
WR	Jauan Jennings	28.00	Jauan Jennings	28.00
WR	Jaylen Waddle	20.90	Jaylen Waddle	20.90
RB	Kenneth Walker	0.00	Kenneth Walker	0.00
RB	Kyren Williams	23.70	Kyren Williams	23.70
TE	David Njoku	17.20	David Njoku	17.20
W/R/T	Jonnu Smith	13.40	Jonnu Smith	13.40
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	23.60	Khalil Shakir	23.60
DEF	Vikings	7.46	Vikings	7.46

Carried by One Guy: Jauan Jennings, 28.00 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–9	7.000	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Miller	8–6	5.077	+7.5	+0.577	3 / 0
Kev	7–7	6.769	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Demich	6–8	4.000	+5.5	+0.423	3 / 0
Krajcik	6–8	8.154	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Big Hut	5–9	5.077	+3.5	+0.269	3 / 2
Adam	6–8	5.769	+2.5	+0.192	3 / 2
Nevans	9–5	9.154	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	7–7	7.923	-4.5	-0.346	3 / 4
Martin	4–10	5.692	-1.0	-0.077	2 / 4
Fischer	13–1	8.923	+1.5	+0.115	3 / 0
Joe Shore	10–4	9.769	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	5–9	7.231	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Horgan	7–7	7.462	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1

2024 week 14 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 14