2024 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

j-mart

116.24

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Joe Shore

156.00

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 124.74 vs. actual 116.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	31.18	Josh Allen	31.18
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	4.30	Gabe Davis	9.20
WR	Drake London	3.50	Keon Coleman	9.10
RB	James Conner	19.30	James Conner	19.30
RB	Devin Singletary	9.20	Devin Singletary	9.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	2.10	Dalton Kincaid	2.10
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	9.20	Rashid Shaheed	18.16
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	18.16	Tyjae Spears	7.20
DEF	Cowboys	19.30	Cowboys	19.30

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 31.18 points (26.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.80 points left. Optimal 180.80 vs. actual 156.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	14.18	Kyler Murray	14.18
WR	Cooper Kupp	34.00	Cooper Kupp	34.00
WR	A.J. Brown	24.90	A.J. Brown	24.90
RB	Joe Mixon	28.80	Joe Mixon	28.80
RB	Chase Brown	5.30	Bucky Irving	9.60
TE	Taysom Hill	4.60	Taysom Hill	4.60
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	5.90	Jameson Williams	26.40
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	35.10	Jayden Reed	35.10
DEF	Bengals	3.22	Bengals	3.22

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Reed, 35.10 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

Miller

80.28

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

90.65

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.20 points left. Optimal 81.48 vs. actual 80.28.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	11.28	Trevor Lawrence	11.28
WR	DJ Moore	10.00	DJ Moore	10.00
WR	Chris Olave	3.10	Chris Olave	3.10
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	12.90	Ezekiel Elliott	12.90
RB	Jonathan Taylor	10.80	Jonathan Taylor	10.80
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	11.60	Kyle Pitts Sr.	11.60
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	2.50	George Pickens	13.50
W/R/T	George Pickens	13.50	Ray Davis	3.70
DEF	Bills	4.60	Bills	4.60

Carried by One Guy: George Pickens, 13.50 points (16.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenneth Walker scored 20.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.80 points left. Optimal 117.45 vs. actual 90.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	15.14	Patrick Mahomes	15.14
WR	Justin Jefferson	15.90	Justin Jefferson	15.90
WR	Khalil Shakir	13.20	Khalil Shakir	13.20
RB	D'Andre Swift	5.00	J.K. Dobbins	24.90
RB	Javonte Williams	3.30	Kenneth Walker	20.90
TE	Jake Ferguson	4.50	Jake Ferguson	4.50
W/R/T	Davante Adams	10.90	Davante Adams	10.90
W/R/T	Kenneth Walker	20.90	Jalen McMillan	10.20
DEF	Jets	1.81	Jets	1.81

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker, 20.90 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

Kev

146.17

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

104.83

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.60 points left. Optimal 166.77 vs. actual 146.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	28.16	Jayden Daniels	28.16
WR	Amari Cooper	3.60	Chris Godwin Jr.	22.30
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	22.30	Christian Watson	10.30
RB	Isiah Pacheco	15.80	Isiah Pacheco	15.80
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.40
TE	George Kittle	8.00	George Kittle	8.00
W/R/T	Christian Watson	10.30	James Cook III	13.30
W/R/T	James Cook III	13.30	Jordan Mason	24.20
DEF	Bears	27.31	Bears	27.31

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 28.16 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.38 points left. Optimal 129.21 vs. actual 104.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	16.40	Tua Tagovailoa	20.62
WR	Courtland Sutton	7.80	Brandin Cooks	14.50
WR	Christian Kirk	4.00	Greg Dortch	11.22
RB	Alvin Kamara	22.00	Alvin Kamara	22.00
RB	Breece Hall	18.30	Breece Hall	18.30
TE	Travis Kelce	6.40	Travis Kelce	6.40
W/R/T	David Montgomery	16.30	Jamaal Williams	12.74
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	6.50	David Montgomery	16.30
DEF	Dolphins	7.13	Dolphins	7.13

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 22.00 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

Demich

101.73

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

102.83

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 107.63 vs. actual 101.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	26.08	Anthony Richardson Sr.	26.08
WR	CeeDee Lamb	13.60	CeeDee Lamb	13.60
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	7.10	Michael Pittman Jr.	7.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.90
RB	Rachaad White	16.60	Rachaad White	16.60
TE	Pat Freiermuth	6.70	Pat Freiermuth	6.70
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	3.50	Jaylen Warren	4.00
W/R/T	Rome Odunze	2.10	Michael Wilson	7.50
DEF	49ers	7.15	49ers	7.15

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Anthony Richardson Sr., 26.08 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Xavier Worthy scored 20.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.50 points left. Optimal 124.33 vs. actual 102.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	18.66	C.J. Stroud	18.66
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.70	Tyler Lockett	13.70
WR	Terry McLaurin	3.70	Deebo Samuel Sr.	18.70
RB	Christian McCaffrey	0.00	Josh Jacobs	12.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	12.40	Tony Pollard	18.40
TE	Dalton Schultz	4.60	Dalton Schultz	4.60
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	18.40	Jerry Jeudy	11.50
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	20.80	Xavier Worthy	20.80
DEF	Chiefs	5.57	Chiefs	5.57

Carried by One Guy: Xavier Worthy, 20.80 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

Nevans

109.96

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

106.29

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 120.16 vs. actual 109.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	11.38	Jared Goff	11.38
WR	Stefon Diggs	21.90	Stefon Diggs	21.90
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	4.80	Brandon Aiyuk	4.80
RB	Derrick Henry	10.60	Derrick Henry	10.60
RB	Saquon Barkley	35.20	Saquon Barkley	35.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.10	Dallas Goedert	7.10
W/R/T	Najee Harris	8.90	Zack Moss	14.10
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	3.90	Najee Harris	8.90
DEF	Lions	6.18	Lions	6.18

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 35.20 points (32.0% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.50 points left. Optimal 113.79 vs. actual 106.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	27.12	Lamar Jackson	27.12
WR	Keenan Allen	6.90	Keenan Allen	6.90
WR	Garrett Wilson	12.00	Garrett Wilson	12.00
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.90	Travis Etienne Jr.	11.90
RB	Zamir White	4.60	Zach Charbonnet	12.10
TE	Sam LaPorta	8.50	Sam LaPorta	8.50
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	7.90	Adam Thielen	7.90
W/R/T	Ladd McConkey	14.90	Ladd McConkey	14.90
DEF	Steelers	12.47	Steelers	12.47

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 27.12 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 35.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

Fischer

135.40

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

117.61

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.60 points left. Optimal 172.00 vs. actual 135.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	10.34	Brock Purdy	10.34
WR	Tyreek Hill	28.22	Tyreek Hill	28.22
WR	Rashee Rice	19.30	Rashee Rice	19.30
RB	Chuba Hubbard	1.40	Brian Robinson	17.90
RB	De'Von Achane	23.00	De'Von Achane	23.00
TE	Trey McBride	8.00	Isaiah Likely	28.10
W/R/T	Nico Collins	19.70	Nico Collins	19.70
W/R/T	Brian Thomas Jr.	14.70	Brian Thomas Jr.	14.70
DEF	Seahawks	10.74	Seahawks	10.74

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 28.22 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 123.11 vs. actual 117.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	11.46	Dak Prescott	11.46
WR	Mike Evans	23.10	Mike Evans	23.10
WR	Malik Nabers	11.60	Malik Nabers	11.60
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	23.60	Rhamondre Stevenson	23.60
RB	Bijan Robinson	16.10	Bijan Robinson	16.10
TE	Evan Engram	1.50	Evan Engram	1.50
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	3.90	Jakobi Meyers	9.40
W/R/T	Zay Flowers	11.10	Zay Flowers	11.10
DEF	Saints	15.25	Saints	15.25

Carried by One Guy: Rhamondre Stevenson, 23.60 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 28.22; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 5 – 9, 2024

Adam

88.02

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Niz

88.75

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 93.92 vs. actual 88.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	16.42	Jalen Hurts	16.42
WR	Puka Nacua	8.20	Rashod Bateman	7.30
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	1.40	Puka Nacua	8.20
RB	Raheem Mostert	3.90	Raheem Mostert	3.90
RB	Jerome Ford	18.90	Jerome Ford	18.90
TE	Brock Bowers	11.80	Brock Bowers	11.80
W/R/T	Calvin Ridley	8.00	Calvin Ridley	8.00
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	15.40	DeVonta Smith	15.40
DEF	Texans	4.00	Texans	4.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jerome Ford, 18.90 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaylen Waddle scored 18.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 97.15 vs. actual 88.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	8.06	Joe Burrow	8.06
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	12.20	Ja'Marr Chase	12.20
WR	Jaylen Waddle	18.20	Jaylen Waddle	18.20
RB	Austin Ekeler	11.16	Austin Ekeler	11.16
RB	Kyren Williams	14.40	Kyren Williams	14.40
TE	Mark Andrews	3.40	David Njoku	8.40
W/R/T	David Njoku	8.40	Wan'Dale Robinson	11.80
W/R/T	Tank Dell	8.90	Tank Dell	8.90
DEF	Ravens	4.03	Ravens	4.03

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 18.20 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.692	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Miller	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–0	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0
Adam	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Josh	1–0	0.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Martin	0–1	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Fischer	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–0	0.154	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	0–1	0.769	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1