2024 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2024

j-mart

165.88

Adam

110.63

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 179.28 vs. actual 165.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	43.28	Josh Allen	43.28
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	39.30	Amon-Ra St. Brown	39.30
WR	Drake London	14.30	Drake London	14.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	5.90	James Conner	32.80
RB	James Conner	32.80	Devin Singletary	13.10
TE	Mike Gesicki	6.70	Dalton Kincaid	9.30
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	14.60	Garrett Wilson	14.60
W/R/T	Tre Tucker	3.80	Keon Coleman	7.40
DEF	Titans	5.20	Titans	5.20

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 43.28 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.60 points left. Optimal 113.23 vs. actual 110.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	10.06	Kyler Murray	10.06
WR	Calvin Ridley	9.00	Calvin Ridley	9.00
WR	Puka Nacua	17.80	Puka Nacua	17.80
RB	Chuba Hubbard	8.90	Raheem Mostert	5.10
RB	Jaylen Warren	2.50	Chuba Hubbard	8.90
TE	Trey McBride	17.70	Trey McBride	17.70
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	30.00	DeVonta Smith	30.00
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.20	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.20
DEF	Buccaneers	9.47	Buccaneers	9.47

Carried by One Guy: DeVonta Smith, 30.00 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 10 – 16, 2024

Demich

102.02

Niz

81.25

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.26 points left. Optimal 104.28 vs. actual 102.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	13.50	Patrick Mahomes	15.76
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.80	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.80
WR	Rome Odunze	5.90	Rome Odunze	5.90
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	18.60
RB	Rachaad White	14.10	Rachaad White	14.10
TE	Pat Freiermuth	11.20	Pat Freiermuth	11.20
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	9.90	D'Andre Swift	9.90
W/R/T	DeMario Douglas	10.10	DeMario Douglas	10.10
DEF	Eagles	8.92	Eagles	8.92

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 18.60 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 98.65 vs. actual 81.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	16.84	Joe Burrow	16.84
WR	Jauan Jennings	5.10	Jauan Jennings	5.10
WR	Jaylen Waddle	0.00	Tank Dell	7.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	0.00	Kenneth Walker	0.00
RB	Kyren Williams	15.20	Kyren Williams	15.20
TE	David Njoku	0.00	Mark Andrews	10.40
W/R/T	Jonnu Smith	19.80	Jonnu Smith	19.80
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	15.90	Khalil Shakir	15.90
DEF	Vikings	8.41	Vikings	8.41

Carried by One Guy: Jonnu Smith, 19.80 points (24.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2024

Miller

96.75

Josh

99.64

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.10 points left. Optimal 133.85 vs. actual 96.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	9.94	Drake Maye	17.48
WR	Tee Higgins	19.80	Tee Higgins	19.80
WR	Marvin Mims Jr.	7.94	Romeo Doubs	19.00
RB	Jonathan Taylor	12.10	Jonathan Taylor	12.10
RB	Tank Bigsby	4.20	Tank Bigsby	4.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.80	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.80
W/R/T	DJ Moore	15.00	DJ Moore	15.00
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	0.00	Jalen McMillan	18.50
DEF	Broncos	20.97	Broncos	20.97

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Broncos, 20.97 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 28.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.16 points left. Optimal 111.80 vs. actual 99.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	11.24	Sam Darnold	11.24
WR	CeeDee Lamb	28.60	CeeDee Lamb	28.60
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	18.40	Ja'Marr Chase	18.40
RB	Najee Harris	3.10	Sincere McCormick	4.50
RB	Sincere McCormick	4.50	Kendre Miller	6.26
TE	Jake Ferguson	4.30	Noah Gray	10.10
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	20.30	Justin Jefferson	20.30
W/R/T	Juwan Johnson	3.20	Jaleel McLaughlin	6.40
DEF	Jets	6.00	Jets	6.00

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 28.60 points (28.7% of positive starter points).

Playoff

Dec 10 – 16, 2024

Nevans

158.89

Horgan

125.81

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.43 points left. Optimal 162.32 vs. actual 158.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	43.06	Jared Goff	43.06
WR	Davante Adams	44.80	Davante Adams	44.80
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	18.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	18.30
RB	Derrick Henry	6.70	Derrick Henry	6.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.40	Saquon Barkley	9.40
TE	Grant Calcaterra	3.20	Grant Calcaterra	3.20
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	2.40	Ray-Ray McCloud III	2.40
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	23.00	Rashod Bateman	23.00
DEF	Ravens	8.03	Saints	11.46

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 44.80 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.32 points left. Optimal 146.13 vs. actual 125.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	3.84	Tua Tagovailoa	3.84
WR	Zay Flowers	11.30	Zay Flowers	11.30
WR	Malik Nabers	24.20	Malik Nabers	24.20
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	9.50	Justice Hill	18.98
RB	Bijan Robinson	16.50	Bijan Robinson	16.50
TE	Cole Kmet	2.40	Cole Kmet	2.40
W/R/T	Mike Evans	38.90	Mike Evans	38.90
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	10.90	Jerome Ford	21.74
DEF	Commanders	8.27	Commanders	8.27

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 38.90 points (30.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 44.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

2024 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup