2024 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

j-mart

126.05

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

97.01

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.80 points left. Optimal 133.85 vs. actual 126.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	18.20	Josh Allen	18.20
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.00	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.00
WR	Garrett Wilson	9.10	Garrett Wilson	9.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	17.00	Kareem Hunt	17.00
RB	James Conner	22.30	James Conner	22.30
TE	Dalton Kincaid	4.40	Dalton Kincaid	4.40
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	2.90	Drake London	17.70
W/R/T	Drake London	17.70	Trey Benson	10.70
DEF	Patriots	16.45	Patriots	16.45

Carried by One Guy: James Conner, 22.30 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.38 points left. Optimal 107.39 vs. actual 97.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	9.78	Justin Herbert	19.76
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.60	Deebo Samuel Sr.	12.60
WR	Terry McLaurin	18.30	Terry McLaurin	18.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	16.70	Christian McCaffrey	16.70
RB	Tony Pollard	10.30	Tony Pollard	10.30
TE	Dalton Schultz	9.60	Dalton Schultz	9.60
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	10.10	Wan'Dale Robinson	10.10
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	2.10	Blake Corum	2.50
DEF	Chiefs	7.53	Chiefs	7.53

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 18.30 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

Miller

101.35

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Adam

142.08

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.92 points left. Optimal 115.27 vs. actual 101.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	6.30	Daniel Jones	12.20
WR	Darnell Mooney	14.60	Darnell Mooney	14.60
WR	George Pickens	20.50	George Pickens	20.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	16.20	Jonathan Taylor	16.20
RB	Tank Bigsby	0.88	Tyler Goodson	8.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.50
W/R/T	DJ Moore	5.70	DJ Moore	5.70
W/R/T	Jalen Coker	7.10	Jalen Coker	7.10
DEF	Bills	20.57	Bills	20.57

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 20.57 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.02 points left. Optimal 154.10 vs. actual 142.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	28.74	Kyler Murray	28.74
WR	Calvin Ridley	25.40	Mike Williams	10.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	3.40	Calvin Ridley	25.40
RB	Raheem Mostert	5.40	Chuba Hubbard	26.90
RB	Chuba Hubbard	26.90	Jaylen Warren	10.62
TE	Trey McBride	11.10	Trey McBride	11.10
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	18.80	Puka Nacua	18.80
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	16.40	Marvin Harrison Jr.	16.40
DEF	Giants	5.94	Giants	5.94

Carried by One Guy: Kyler Murray, 28.74 points (20.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

Kev

81.31

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich

97.30

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.30 points left. Optimal 84.61 vs. actual 81.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	8.58	Jayden Daniels	8.58
WR	Sterling Shepard	2.00	Mack Hollins	12.60
WR	Xavier Legette	7.00	Xavier Legette	7.00
RB	James Cook III	15.50	James Cook III	15.50
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.80	Jahmyr Gibbs	12.80
TE	George Kittle	14.70	George Kittle	14.70
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	2.40	Hunter Henry	2.40
W/R/T	Mack Hollins	12.60	Audric Estime	5.30
DEF	Bears	5.73	Bears	5.73

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 15.50 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Eagles scored 21.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.24 points left. Optimal 108.54 vs. actual 97.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bo Nix	16.10	Patrick Mahomes	16.54
WR	DeMario Douglas	9.00	Michael Wilson	5.40
WR	Rome Odunze	5.30	DeMario Douglas	9.00
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.10	Aaron Jones Sr.	12.10
RB	D'Andre Swift	7.50	D'Andre Swift	7.50
TE	Taysom Hill	7.00	Taysom Hill	7.00
W/R/T	Rachaad White	19.00	Pat Freiermuth	10.70
W/R/T	Mason Tipton	0.00	Rachaad White	19.00
DEF	Eagles	21.30	Eagles	21.30

Carried by One Guy: Eagles, 21.30 points (21.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

Krajcik

111.84

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

95.07

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 111.84 vs. actual 111.84.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	8.94	Baker Mayfield	8.94
WR	Courtland Sutton	19.00	Courtland Sutton	19.00
WR	Jordan Addison	4.90	Jordan Addison	4.90
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.90	Alvin Kamara	15.90
RB	Breece Hall	12.30	Breece Hall	12.30
TE	Travis Kelce	20.40	Travis Kelce	20.40
W/R/T	David Montgomery	12.60	David Montgomery	12.60
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	10.40	Quentin Johnston	10.40
DEF	Rams	7.40	Rams	7.40

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 20.40 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 95.07 vs. actual 95.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	7.80	Jared Goff	7.80
WR	Ray-Ray McCloud III	7.74	Ray-Ray McCloud III	7.74
WR	Rashod Bateman	17.40	Rashod Bateman	17.40
RB	Derrick Henry	14.10	Derrick Henry	14.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	8.80	Saquon Barkley	8.80
TE	Mike Gesicki	7.00	Mike Gesicki	7.00
W/R/T	Dallas Goedert	10.50	Dallas Goedert	10.50
W/R/T	Najee Harris	11.30	Najee Harris	11.30
DEF	Texans	10.43	Texans	10.43

Carried by One Guy: Rashod Bateman, 17.40 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 20.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

Martin

107.57

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Fischer

110.17

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 107.57 vs. actual 107.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	32.90	Lamar Jackson	32.90
WR	Josh Downs	14.20	Josh Downs	14.20
WR	Ladd McConkey	7.20	Ladd McConkey	7.20
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	5.30	Travis Etienne Jr.	5.30
RB	Tyjae Spears	8.10	Tyjae Spears	8.10
TE	Cade Otton	8.50	Cade Otton	8.50
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	9.40	Keenan Allen	9.40
W/R/T	Sam LaPorta	15.60	Sam LaPorta	15.60
DEF	Steelers	6.37	Steelers	6.37

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 32.90 points (30.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brock Purdy scored 25.82; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 110.17 vs. actual 110.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	25.82	Brock Purdy	25.82
WR	Demarcus Robinson	3.30	Demarcus Robinson	3.30
WR	Ricky Pearsall	17.30	Ricky Pearsall	17.30
RB	Rico Dowdle	8.60	Rico Dowdle	8.60
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	17.40	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	17.40
TE	Theo Johnson	7.70	Theo Johnson	7.70
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	11.70	Tyreek Hill	11.70
W/R/T	De'Von Achane	10.20	De'Von Achane	10.20
DEF	Lions	8.15	Lions	8.15

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 25.82 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

Joe Shore

152.88

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz

126.68

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 152.88 vs. actual 152.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	29.68	Jalen Hurts	29.68
WR	Cooper Kupp	15.00	Cooper Kupp	15.00
WR	A.J. Brown	17.90	A.J. Brown	17.90
RB	Joe Mixon	17.00	Joe Mixon	17.00
RB	Chase Brown	22.40	Chase Brown	22.40
TE	T.J. Hockenson	15.20	T.J. Hockenson	15.20
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	8.30	Jameson Williams	8.30
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	17.70	Bucky Irving	17.70
DEF	Chargers	9.70	Chargers	9.70

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 29.68 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.59 points left. Optimal 145.27 vs. actual 126.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	35.72	Joe Burrow	35.72
WR	Khalil Shakir	11.80	Khalil Shakir	11.80
WR	Tank Dell	8.30	Tank Dell	8.30
RB	Austin Ekeler	21.46	Austin Ekeler	21.46
RB	Kyren Williams	11.20	Kyren Williams	11.20
TE	Jonnu Smith	7.50	Mark Andrews	18.80
W/R/T	Mark Andrews	18.80	Jauan Jennings	16.30
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	8.60	Jaylen Waddle	8.60
DEF	Ravens	3.30	Vikings	13.09

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 35.72 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 29.68; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 5 – 11, 2024

Josh

105.74

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

92.27

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.66 points left. Optimal 108.40 vs. actual 105.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	6.44	Sam Darnold	6.44
WR	Justin Jefferson	9.80	Justin Jefferson	9.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	57.40	Ja'Marr Chase	57.40
RB	J.K. Dobbins	8.50	J.K. Dobbins	8.50
RB	Javonte Williams	2.70	Kenny Gainwell	5.36
TE	Jake Ferguson	4.40	Jake Ferguson	4.40
W/R/T	Davante Adams	9.10	Davante Adams	9.10
W/R/T	CeeDee Lamb	8.40	CeeDee Lamb	8.40
DEF	Jets	-1.00	Jets	-1.00

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 57.40 points (53.8% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.30 points left. Optimal 96.57 vs. actual 92.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	8.18	Tua Tagovailoa	8.18
WR	Diontae Johnson	1.60	DeAndre Hopkins	9.60
WR	Zay Flowers	7.40	Zay Flowers	7.40
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	8.70	Rhamondre Stevenson	8.70
RB	Bijan Robinson	31.40	Bijan Robinson	31.40
TE	Evan Engram	10.00	Evan Engram	10.00
W/R/T	DeAndre Hopkins	9.60	Tyler Allgeier	5.90
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	10.80	Malik Nabers	10.80
DEF	49ers	4.59	49ers	4.59

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 31.40 points (34.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Ja'Marr Chase scored 57.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–6	5.923	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Miller	6–4	4.000	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	7–3	6.000	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	3–7	2.231	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Krajcik	4–6	5.538	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Big Hut	3–7	2.923	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Adam	4–6	3.462	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	7–3	6.462	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	5–5	5.769	-4.5	-0.346	2 / 3
Martin	2–8	3.923	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 3
Fischer	9–1	6.231	+1.0	+0.077	2 / 0
Joe Shore	7–3	6.923	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–6	4.692	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Horgan	5–5	5.923	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Joe Shore lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10