2024 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

j-mart

146.77

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

91.51

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.50 points left. Optimal 165.27 vs. actual 146.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	23.02	Josh Allen	23.02
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	27.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	27.20
WR	Drake London	18.30	Drake London	18.30
RB	Kareem Hunt	22.30	Kareem Hunt	22.30
RB	James Conner	19.20	James Conner	19.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	8.20	Dalton Kincaid	8.20
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	0.00	Garrett Wilson	13.10
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	13.10	Keon Coleman	18.50
DEF	Eagles	15.45	Eagles	15.45

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 27.20 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.60 points left. Optimal 107.11 vs. actual 91.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	16.80	Baker Mayfield	29.00
WR	Courtland Sutton	0.00	Christian Kirk	3.40
WR	Jordan Addison	9.60	Jordan Addison	9.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	8.40	Alvin Kamara	8.40
RB	Breece Hall	28.10	Breece Hall	28.10
TE	Travis Kelce	5.70	Travis Kelce	5.70
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	10.20	Nick Chubb	10.20
W/R/T	David Montgomery	8.00	David Montgomery	8.00
DEF	Packers	4.71	Packers	4.71

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 28.10 points (30.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

Miller

138.61

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

130.18

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.00 points left. Optimal 143.61 vs. actual 138.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	17.78	Geno Smith	17.78
WR	Tee Higgins	18.20	Tee Higgins	18.20
WR	Bub Means	6.70	Darnell Mooney	9.60
RB	Tyler Goodson	11.10	Tyler Goodson	11.10
RB	Tank Bigsby	25.80	Tank Bigsby	25.80
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	13.50
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	9.60	George Pickens	24.10
W/R/T	George Pickens	24.10	Ray Davis	11.70
DEF	Bills	11.83	Bills	11.83

Carried by One Guy: Tank Bigsby, 25.80 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.77 points left. Optimal 140.95 vs. actual 130.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	18.80	Jared Goff	18.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	7.30	Stefon Diggs	7.30
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	4.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	5.30
RB	Derrick Henry	27.20	Derrick Henry	27.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	28.70	Saquon Barkley	28.70
TE	Tyler Conklin	10.70	Tyler Conklin	10.70
W/R/T	Najee Harris	18.20	Zack Moss	7.00
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	5.30	Najee Harris	18.20
DEF	Texans	9.68	Seahawks	17.75

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 28.70 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tank Bigsby scored 25.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

Big Hut

78.77

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Josh

125.60

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.92 points left. Optimal 93.69 vs. actual 78.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	5.34	Justin Herbert	16.76
WR	Tyler Lockett	8.50	Tyler Lockett	8.50
WR	Terry McLaurin	15.80	Terry McLaurin	15.80
RB	Josh Jacobs	20.20	Josh Jacobs	20.20
RB	Tony Pollard	8.50	Tony Pollard	8.50
TE	Dalton Schultz	3.80	Dalton Schultz	3.80
W/R/T	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0.00	Alec Pierce	3.50
W/R/T	Xavier Worthy	5.40	Xavier Worthy	5.40
DEF	Jaguars	11.23	Jaguars	11.23

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 20.20 points (25.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 125.60 vs. actual 125.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	16.26	Sam Darnold	16.26
WR	Justin Jefferson	21.40	Justin Jefferson	21.40
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	17.60	Ja'Marr Chase	17.60
RB	J.K. Dobbins	9.60	J.K. Dobbins	9.60
RB	Javonte Williams	26.10	Javonte Williams	26.10
TE	Zach Ertz	14.00	Zach Ertz	14.00
W/R/T	Davante Adams	6.00	Davante Adams	6.00
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	17.40	Romeo Doubs	17.40
DEF	Jets	-2.76	Jets	-2.76

Carried by One Guy: Javonte Williams, 26.10 points (20.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

Martin

84.43

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

111.54

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 88.13 vs. actual 84.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	34.44	Lamar Jackson	34.44
WR	Josh Downs	1.56	Josh Downs	1.56
WR	Ladd McConkey	9.60	Ladd McConkey	9.60
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	0.00	Zamir White	3.70
RB	Zach Charbonnet	1.90	Zach Charbonnet	1.90
TE	Sam LaPorta	3.50	Sam LaPorta	3.50
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	3.34	Ray-Ray McCloud III	3.34
W/R/T	Cade Otton	20.00	Cade Otton	20.00
DEF	Steelers	10.09	Steelers	10.09

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 34.44 points (40.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.15 points left. Optimal 138.69 vs. actual 111.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	14.94	Joe Burrow	14.94
WR	Khalil Shakir	13.50	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.30
WR	Tank Dell	0.48	Khalil Shakir	13.50
RB	Kenneth Walker	23.30	Kenneth Walker	23.30
RB	Kyren Williams	19.60	Kyren Williams	19.60
TE	David Njoku	23.60	David Njoku	23.60
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	2.10	Austin Ekeler	4.68
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	8.30	Mark Andrews	20.10
DEF	Ravens	5.72	Vikings	10.67

Carried by One Guy: David Njoku, 23.60 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

Demich

59.82

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

110.76

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.10 points left. Optimal 90.92 vs. actual 59.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	12.06	Bo Nix	14.06
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.30	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.30
WR	DeMario Douglas	3.40	DeMario Douglas	3.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	20.60	Aaron Jones Sr.	20.60
RB	Ty Chandler	0.40	Ty Chandler	0.40
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.10	Pat Freiermuth	7.10
W/R/T	Michael Wilson	2.50	Rachaad White	29.10
W/R/T	Jordan Whittington	0.00	Michael Wilson	2.50
DEF	49ers	4.46	49ers	4.46

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 20.60 points (34.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.50 points left. Optimal 122.26 vs. actual 110.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	17.18	Brock Purdy	17.18
WR	Tyreek Hill	2.30	Dontayvion Wicks	13.80
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	22.10	Brian Thomas Jr.	22.10
RB	De'Von Achane	10.50	De'Von Achane	10.50
RB	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	6.20	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	6.20
TE	Trey McBride	10.10	Trey McBride	10.10
W/R/T	Chuba Hubbard	11.20	Chuba Hubbard	11.20
W/R/T	Brian Robinson	13.10	Brian Robinson	13.10
DEF	Rams	18.08	Rams	18.08

Carried by One Guy: Brian Thomas Jr., 22.10 points (20.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

Adam

92.55

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

123.83

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.24 points left. Optimal 113.79 vs. actual 92.55.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	22.76	Jalen Hurts	22.76
WR	Calvin Ridley	7.20	Calvin Ridley	7.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	0.80	Tre Tucker	7.70
RB	Raheem Mostert	3.00	Justice Hill	14.54
RB	Trey Sermon	5.90	Trey Sermon	5.90
TE	Brock Bowers	19.30	Brock Bowers	19.30
W/R/T	Tutu Atwell	11.10	Tutu Atwell	11.10
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.10	Jaylen Warren	7.90
DEF	Bengals	17.39	Bengals	17.39

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 22.76 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.30 points left. Optimal 152.13 vs. actual 123.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	20.20	Kyler Murray	20.20
WR	DK Metcalf	19.90	A.J. Brown	19.90
WR	Jayden Reed	3.10	DK Metcalf	19.90
RB	Joe Mixon	28.40	Joe Mixon	28.40
RB	Chase Brown	7.30	Chase Brown	7.30
TE	Isaiah Likely	3.70	Isaiah Likely	3.70
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	19.90	Alexander Mattison	15.30
W/R/T	Jameson Williams	0.60	Bucky Irving	16.70
DEF	Broncos	20.73	Broncos	20.73

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 28.40 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 15 – 21, 2024

Kev

109.27

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Horgan

87.95

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.02 points left. Optimal 118.29 vs. actual 109.27.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	5.24	Jayden Daniels	5.24
WR	Amari Cooper	16.60	Amari Cooper	16.60
WR	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	13.50
RB	James Cook III	9.20	James Cook III	9.20
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	34.00	Jahmyr Gibbs	34.00
TE	George Kittle	15.20	George Kittle	15.20
W/R/T	Jordan Mason	8.90	Jordan Mason	8.90
W/R/T	Xavier Legette	3.28	Tucker Kraft	12.30
DEF	Giants	3.35	Giants	3.35

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 34.00 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 96.55 vs. actual 87.95.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	15.02	Trevor Lawrence	15.02
WR	Mike Evans	9.50	Mike Evans	9.50
WR	Zay Flowers	4.00	Allen Lazard	9.80
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	4.50
RB	Bijan Robinson	25.30	Bijan Robinson	25.30
TE	Evan Engram	8.50	Evan Engram	8.50
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	2.70	Tyler Allgeier	5.50
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	8.10	Malik Nabers	8.10
DEF	Colts	10.33	Colts	10.33

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 25.30 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jahmyr Gibbs scored 34.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–5	4.231	-3.0	-0.231	0 / 2
Miller	5–2	3.000	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Kev	7–0	5.231	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Demich	1–6	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	3–4	4.077	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Big Hut	2–5	2.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Adam	2–5	1.615	+5.5	+0.423	2 / 1
Nevans	6–1	5.231	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	3–4	3.769	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Martin	1–6	2.231	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 2
Fischer	6–1	4.154	+1.0	+0.077	2 / 0
Joe Shore	4–3	4.538	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–3	3.154	+4.5	+0.346	1 / 0
Horgan	3–4	4.154	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1

2024 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7