2024 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

j-mart

102.60

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

151.15

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.70 points left. Optimal 108.30 vs. actual 102.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	28.42	Josh Allen	28.42
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.30	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.30
WR	Drake London	17.30	Drake London	17.30
RB	James Conner	11.10	James Conner	11.10
RB	Jeremy McNichols	5.00	Jeremy McNichols	5.00
TE	Mike Gesicki	10.30	Mike Gesicki	10.30
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	9.10	Noah Brown	5.70
W/R/T	Adonai Mitchell	0.00	Garrett Wilson	9.10
DEF	Commanders	9.08	Commanders	9.08

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 28.42 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.60 points left. Optimal 156.75 vs. actual 151.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	27.20	Tua Tagovailoa	27.20
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	13.00	DeAndre Hopkins	13.00
WR	Zay Flowers	10.10	Jakobi Meyers	15.70
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.40	Rhamondre Stevenson	12.40
RB	Bijan Robinson	27.50	Bijan Robinson	27.50
TE	Evan Engram	11.10	Evan Engram	11.10
W/R/T	Mike Evans	27.80	Mike Evans	27.80
W/R/T	Malik Nabers	15.30	Malik Nabers	15.30
DEF	Colts	6.75	Colts	6.75

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 27.80 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

Demich

89.76

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

119.71

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.50 points left. Optimal 110.26 vs. actual 89.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	18.64	Patrick Mahomes	18.64
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.20	Michael Pittman Jr.	9.20
WR	Rome Odunze	4.50	Michael Wilson	10.50
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.80	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.80
RB	D'Andre Swift	9.40	D'Andre Swift	9.40
TE	Taysom Hill	9.70	Taysom Hill	9.70
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	4.30	Pat Freiermuth	18.80
W/R/T	Rachaad White	8.80	Rachaad White	8.80
DEF	Seahawks	15.42	Seahawks	15.42

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 18.64 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.71 vs. actual 119.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Darnold	19.60	Sam Darnold	19.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	5.90	CeeDee Lamb	5.90
WR	Justin Jefferson	16.90	Justin Jefferson	16.90
RB	Najee Harris	24.90	Najee Harris	24.90
RB	Kimani Vidal	2.00	Kimani Vidal	2.00
TE	Noah Gray	9.80	Noah Gray	9.80
W/R/T	Ja'Marr Chase	20.60	Ja'Marr Chase	20.60
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	7.40	Javonte Williams	7.40
DEF	Bills	12.61	Bills	12.61

Carried by One Guy: Najee Harris, 24.90 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

Krajcik

115.16

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Adam

121.07

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 115.26 vs. actual 115.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	18.96	Jordan Love	18.96
WR	Courtland Sutton	18.20	Courtland Sutton	18.20
WR	Jordan Addison	9.40	Jordan Addison	9.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	17.90	Alvin Kamara	17.90
RB	Breece Hall	6.00	Nick Chubb	12.50
TE	Travis Kelce	13.80	Travis Kelce	13.80
W/R/T	Nick Chubb	12.50	David Montgomery	15.40
W/R/T	David Montgomery	15.40	Jalen Tolbert	6.10
DEF	Rams	3.00	Rams	3.00

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Love, 18.96 points (16.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Trey McBride scored 21.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.46 points left. Optimal 152.53 vs. actual 121.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	15.20	Russell Wilson	28.86
WR	Calvin Ridley	6.50	Elijah Moore	21.20
WR	Puka Nacua	17.30	Puka Nacua	17.30
RB	Chuba Hubbard	2.30	Raheem Mostert	5.40
RB	Jaylen Warren	10.70	Jaylen Warren	10.70
TE	Trey McBride	21.60	Trey McBride	21.60
W/R/T	Zach Ertz	12.50	Zach Ertz	12.50
W/R/T	Marvin Harrison Jr.	17.00	Marvin Harrison Jr.	17.00
DEF	Cowboys	17.97	Cowboys	17.97

Carried by One Guy: Trey McBride, 21.60 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

Big Hut

157.22

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

112.31

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.94 points left. Optimal 160.16 vs. actual 157.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	14.38	C.J. Stroud	14.38
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	9.16	Terry McLaurin	27.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	27.30	Xavier Worthy	10.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	8.70	Josh Jacobs	21.70
RB	Tony Pollard	8.80	Tony Pollard	8.80
TE	Dalton Schultz	17.10	Dalton Schultz	17.10
W/R/T	Josh Jacobs	21.70	Jerry Jeudy	42.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	42.50	Theo Johnson	10.40
DEF	Chiefs	7.58	Chiefs	7.58

Carried by One Guy: Jerry Jeudy, 42.50 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.90 points left. Optimal 125.21 vs. actual 112.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	16.94	Jared Goff	16.94
WR	Davante Adams	17.60	Davante Adams	17.60
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	11.90	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	11.90
RB	Derrick Henry	14.10	Derrick Henry	14.10
RB	Saquon Barkley	21.70	Saquon Barkley	21.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	12.50	Dallas Goedert	12.50
W/R/T	Ray-Ray McCloud III	13.30	Demarcus Robinson	12.90
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	0.00	Ray-Ray McCloud III	13.30
DEF	Texans	4.27	Texans	4.27

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 21.70 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

Martin

137.04

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Joe Shore

151.32

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 31.20 points left. Optimal 168.24 vs. actual 137.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	25.38	Lamar Jackson	25.38
WR	Adam Thielen	23.90	Adam Thielen	23.90
WR	Ladd McConkey	22.70	Ladd McConkey	22.70
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.80
RB	Roschon Johnson	0.00	Zach Charbonnet	12.10
TE	Cade Otton	6.00	Sam LaPorta	15.60
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	24.30	Keenan Allen	24.30
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	11.60	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	21.10
DEF	Steelers	14.36	Steelers	14.36

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 25.38 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bucky Irving scored 29.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.90 points left. Optimal 157.22 vs. actual 151.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	17.62	Jalen Hurts	17.62
WR	A.J. Brown	11.60	A.J. Brown	11.60
WR	Jayden Reed	19.70	Jayden Reed	19.70
RB	Joe Mixon	23.90	Joe Mixon	23.90
RB	Chase Brown	19.00	Chase Brown	19.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	5.80	T.J. Hockenson	5.80
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	4.70	DK Metcalf	10.60
W/R/T	Bucky Irving	29.90	Bucky Irving	29.90
DEF	Broncos	19.10	Broncos	19.10

Carried by One Guy: Bucky Irving, 29.90 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

Kev

91.87

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

181.91

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.76 points left. Optimal 129.63 vs. actual 91.87.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jayden Daniels	27.64	Jayden Daniels	27.64
WR	Amari Cooper	4.20	Christian Watson	8.70
WR	Devaughn Vele	2.60	Xavier Legette	9.30
RB	James Cook III	21.00	James Cook III	21.00
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	10.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	10.40
TE	George Kittle	1.70	Hunter Henry	14.50
W/R/T	Christian Watson	8.70	Tucker Kraft	13.80
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	5.90	Ray Davis	14.56
DEF	Packers	9.73	Packers	9.73

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Daniels, 27.64 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.01 points left. Optimal 187.92 vs. actual 181.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	21.16	Anthony Richardson Sr.	21.16
WR	Tyreek Hill	20.30	Tyreek Hill	20.30
WR	Nico Collins	21.90	Nico Collins	21.90
RB	Rico Dowdle	23.30	Rico Dowdle	23.30
RB	De'Von Achane	21.00	De'Von Achane	21.00
TE	Brock Bowers	32.20	Brock Bowers	32.20
W/R/T	Brian Robinson	19.90	Brian Robinson	19.90
W/R/T	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	14.50	Brian Thomas Jr.	18.70
DEF	Lions	7.65	Bengals	9.46

Carried by One Guy: Brock Bowers, 32.20 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2024

Miller

136.08

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Niz

124.54

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.60 points left. Optimal 140.68 vs. actual 136.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Caleb Williams	26.14	Caleb Williams	26.14
WR	DJ Moore	23.70	DJ Moore	23.70
WR	George Pickens	16.40	George Pickens	16.40
RB	Ameer Abdullah	9.26	Ameer Abdullah	9.26
RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.30	Jonathan Taylor	17.30
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	0.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	0.00
W/R/T	Tee Higgins	17.90	Tee Higgins	17.90
W/R/T	Darnell Mooney	5.00	Alec Pierce	9.60
DEF	Jets	20.38	Jets	20.38

Carried by One Guy: Caleb Williams, 26.14 points (19.2% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.92 points left. Optimal 141.46 vs. actual 124.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	21.26	Joe Burrow	21.26
WR	Jaylen Waddle	11.30	Jauan Jennings	8.60
WR	Tank Dell	3.58	Jaylen Waddle	11.30
RB	Kenneth Walker	6.60	Kenneth Walker	6.60
RB	Kyren Williams	20.30	Kyren Williams	20.30
TE	David Njoku	26.20	David Njoku	26.20
W/R/T	Jonnu Smith	23.30	Jonnu Smith	23.30
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	7.00	Mark Andrews	18.90
DEF	Vikings	5.00	Vikings	5.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: David Njoku, 26.20 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Caleb Williams scored 26.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–9	6.385	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 3
Miller	8–5	5.077	+7.5	+0.577	3 / 0
Kev	7–6	6.692	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Demich	5–8	3.615	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Krajcik	5–8	7.308	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Big Hut	5–8	4.846	+3.5	+0.269	3 / 2
Adam	6–7	5.000	+6.0	+0.462	3 / 1
Nevans	9–4	8.692	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 1
Josh	6–7	6.923	-4.5	-0.346	3 / 4
Martin	3–10	5.154	-1.0	-0.077	2 / 4
Fischer	12–1	8.231	+1.5	+0.115	3 / 0
Joe Shore	10–3	9.615	-4.0	-0.308	0 / 2
Niz	4–9	6.308	-4.0	-0.308	1 / 3
Horgan	7–6	7.154	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1

2024 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13