2023 season ledger
Actual results beside all-play expectation, schedule counterfactuals, weekly receipts, rivalries, and archived player evidence.
Actual and all-play standings
All-play is a score comparison, not a prediction of skill.
| Manager | W–L | PF | Expected wins | Luck points | Luck in wins | Lucky | Unlucky | All-play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Shore | 10–4 | 1985.32 | 10.308 | -5.5 | -0.423 | 2 | 3 | 73.6% |
| Miller | 9–5 | 1821.01 | 8.923 | -1.5 | -0.115 | 1 | 2 | 63.7% |
| Niz | 9–5 | 1740.45 | 8.615 | -4.0 | -0.308 | 2 | 2 | 61.5% |
| Nevans | 9–5 | 1562.89 | 6.615 | +3.5 | +0.269 | 2 | 1 | 47.3% |
| Horgan | 8–6 | 1599.47 | 7.000 | -2.5 | -0.192 | 3 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Kev | 7–7 | 1718.09 | 8.769 | -3.5 | -0.269 | 0 | 1 | 62.6% |
| Fischer | 7–7 | 1446.50 | 4.846 | +10.0 | +0.769 | 5 | 1 | 34.6% |
| Martin | 6–8 | 1716.14 | 7.846 | -9.5 | -0.731 | 1 | 4 | 56.0% |
| Demich | 6–8 | 1627.24 | 7.231 | -5.0 | -0.385 | 1 | 3 | 51.6% |
| j-mart | 6–8 | 1558.58 | 6.692 | -3.5 | -0.269 | 1 | 2 | 47.8% |
| Krajcik | 6–8 | 1472.68 | 5.000 | +10.0 | +0.769 | 3 | 1 | 35.7% |
| Josh | 5–9 | 1608.31 | 6.231 | -6.0 | -0.462 | 0 | 2 | 44.5% |
| Big Hut | 5–9 | 1508.83 | 5.077 | -1.0 | -0.077 | 3 | 1 | 36.3% |
| Adam | 5–9 | 1487.83 | 4.846 | +4.5 | +0.346 | 2 | 1 | 34.6% |
All-play order
- Joe Shore — 10.308 expected wins; 134–48–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Miller — 8.923 expected wins; 116–66–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Kev — 8.769 expected wins; 114–68–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Niz — 8.615 expected wins; 112–70–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Martin — 7.846 expected wins; 102–80–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Demich — 7.231 expected wins; 94–88–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Horgan — 7.000 expected wins; 91–91–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- j-mart — 6.692 expected wins; 87–95–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Nevans — 6.615 expected wins; 86–96–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Josh — 6.231 expected wins; 81–101–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Big Hut — 5.077 expected wins; 66–116–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Krajcik — 5.000 expected wins; 65–117–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Adam — 4.846 expected wins; 63–119–0 across weekly score comparisons.
- Fischer — 4.846 expected wins; 63–119–0 across weekly score comparisons.
Latest weekly receipts
All exact ties share the award.
Robbery of the Week
- NizRank 4, 126.91 points, lost by 11.45. Open matchup
Get Out of Jail Free
- KrajcikRank 13, 90.43 points, won by 12.89. Open matchup
Cumulative luck in wins
Normalized before totals are compared across league sizes.
| Manager | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 | W11 | W12 | W13 | W14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -0.04 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.15 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Miller | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.12 |
| Kev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Demich | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.27 | -0.38 |
| Krajcik | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.77 |
| Big Hut | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.31 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
| Adam | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Nevans | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.27 |
| Josh | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 |
| Martin | 0.00 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.46 | -0.73 | -0.69 | -0.69 | -0.73 |
| Fischer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.54 | +0.27 | +0.27 | +0.46 | +0.46 | +0.65 | +0.77 |
| Joe Shore | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.35 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.42 | -0.42 | -0.42 |
| Niz | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.19 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.31 |
| Horgan | +0.12 | +0.12 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.42 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 |
Schedule Swap
Each score stays in its original week. Only the schedule owner changes.
| Source team | Best owner | Record | Worst owner | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Demich | 9–5 (+3.0) | Big Hut | 4–10 (-2.0) |
| Miller | j-mart | 11–3 (+2.0) | Martin | 7–7 (-2.0) |
| Kev | Krajcik | 10–4 (+3.0) | Kev | 7–7 (0.0) |
| Demich | Josh | 10–4 (+4.0) | Martin | 3–11 (-3.0) |
| Krajcik | Demich | 7–7 (+1.0) | Martin | 3–11 (-3.0) |
| Big Hut | Horgan | 7–7 (+2.0) | Adam | 3–11 (-2.0) |
| Adam | Horgan | 7–7 (+2.0) | Kev | 2–12 (-3.0) |
| Nevans | Horgan | 9–5 (0.0) | Adam | 4–10 (-5.0) |
| Josh | j-mart | 9–5 (+4.0) | Kev | 2–12 (-3.0) |
| Martin | Krajcik | 10–4 (+4.0) | Kev | 5–9 (-1.0) |
| Fischer | Krajcik | 8–6 (+1.0) | Martin | 2–12 (-5.0) |
| Joe Shore | j-mart | 13–1 (+3.0) | Miller | 8–6 (-2.0) |
| Niz | Demich | 11–3 (+2.0) | Miller | 6–8 (-3.0) |
| Horgan | Demich | 10–4 (+2.0) | Fischer | 4–10 (-4.0) |
Everybody's Super Bowl
Opponent score minus that opponent's mean in other eligible weeks. Each baseline needs two other weeks.
| Manager | Mean excess | Meetings | Largest receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | -3.66 pts | 14 | Krajcik: +15.65 pts |
| Miller | +0.40 pts | 14 | j-mart: +52.13 pts |
| Kev | +10.77 pts | 14 | Big Hut: +63.52 pts |
| Demich | -5.29 pts | 14 | Martin: +28.43 pts |
| Krajcik | -8.12 pts | 14 | Josh: +44.29 pts |
| Big Hut | -1.59 pts | 14 | Kev: +50.56 pts |
| Adam | +8.81 pts | 14 | Joe Shore: +69.20 pts |
| Nevans | -10.43 pts | 14 | Josh: +52.81 pts |
| Josh | -2.20 pts | 14 | Miller: +35.67 pts |
| Martin | +8.89 pts | 14 | Adam: +42.20 pts |
| Fischer | -1.67 pts | 14 | Kev: +41.09 pts |
| Joe Shore | +1.80 pts | 14 | Miller: +50.51 pts |
| Niz | +1.61 pts | 14 | Joe Shore: +35.22 pts |
| Horgan | +0.70 pts | 14 | Niz: +64.56 pts |
Cupcake Schedule / Murderers' Row
Opponent percentile excludes both the focal team and the opponent. Higher means harder.
| Manager | Difficulty | Games | PA/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 42.3% | 14 | 112.63 |
| Miller | 53.0% | 14 | 115.89 |
| Kev | 67.9% | 14 | 126.71 |
| Demich | 42.3% | 14 | 111.54 |
| Krajcik | 37.5% | 14 | 109.14 |
| Big Hut | 50.0% | 14 | 117.56 |
| Adam | 56.5% | 14 | 124.70 |
| Nevans | 39.3% | 14 | 107.69 |
| Josh | 47.0% | 14 | 115.64 |
| Martin | 63.1% | 14 | 124.07 |
| Fischer | 50.0% | 14 | 115.62 |
| Joe Shore | 50.6% | 14 | 115.84 |
| Niz | 54.2% | 14 | 117.98 |
| Horgan | 46.4% | 14 | 117.39 |
Heart Attack Club
A close game has a margin of 5.00 points or less, inclusive.
| Manager | Close record | Games | Win-credit rate | Closest win | Closest loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 0–2 | 2 | 0.0% | None | 0.80 |
| Miller | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Kev | 1–0 | 1 | 100.0% | 2.91 | None |
| Demich | 0–0 | 0 | Not enough history | None | None |
| Krajcik | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 1.70 |
| Big Hut | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 2.91 |
| Adam | 0–1 | 1 | 0.0% | None | 0.41 |
| Nevans | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.24 | 4.45 |
| Josh | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 1.02 | 1.93 |
| Martin | 2–1 | 3 | 66.7% | 2.33 | 1.02 |
| Fischer | 4–2 | 6 | 66.7% | 0.41 | 0.99 |
| Joe Shore | 1–1 | 2 | 50.0% | 0.59 | 1.24 |
| Niz | 3–1 | 4 | 75.0% | 0.99 | 2.33 |
| Horgan | 1–2 | 3 | 33.3% | 1.93 | 0.59 |
Paper Tiger / Wasted Talent
Actual win-credit rate against all-play win rate. The diagonal means equality.
| Manager | Actual | All-play | Gap | View |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 42.9% | 47.8% | -4.9 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Miller | 64.3% | 63.7% | +0.5 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Kev | 50.0% | 62.6% | -12.6 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Demich | 42.9% | 51.6% | -8.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Krajcik | 42.9% | 35.7% | +7.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Big Hut | 35.7% | 36.3% | -0.5 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Adam | 35.7% | 34.6% | +1.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Nevans | 64.3% | 47.3% | +17.0 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Josh | 35.7% | 44.5% | -8.8 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Martin | 42.9% | 56.0% | -13.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Fischer | 50.0% | 34.6% | +15.4 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Joe Shore | 71.4% | 73.6% | -2.2 pp | Wasted Talent |
| Niz | 64.3% | 61.5% | +2.7 pp | Paper Tiger |
| Horgan | 57.1% | 50.0% | +7.1 pp | Paper Tiger |
The Roller Coaster
Population standard deviation of weekly all-play percentile. Two weeks required.
| Manager | Volatility | Mean percentile | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 29.4 pp | 47.8% | 14 |
| Miller | 25.7 pp | 63.7% | 14 |
| Kev | 34.9 pp | 62.6% | 14 |
| Demich | 24.2 pp | 51.6% | 14 |
| Krajcik | 26.3 pp | 35.7% | 14 |
| Big Hut | 32.9 pp | 36.3% | 14 |
| Adam | 33.0 pp | 34.6% | 14 |
| Nevans | 27.9 pp | 47.3% | 14 |
| Josh | 33.6 pp | 44.5% | 14 |
| Martin | 33.5 pp | 56.0% | 14 |
| Fischer | 21.7 pp | 34.6% | 14 |
| Joe Shore | 24.8 pp | 73.6% | 14 |
| Niz | 28.2 pp | 61.5% | 14 |
| Horgan | 19.4 pp | 50.0% | 14 |
Nemesis / Has Their Number
Stable-manager regular-season records. Postseason is kept separate on manager pages.
| Manager | Nemesis | Record | Has Their Number | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Fischer | 0–2 | Martin | 1–0 |
| Miller | Demich | 0–1 | Josh | 2–0 |
| Kev | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Demich | Horgan | 0–2 | Josh | 1–0 |
| Krajcik | Josh | 0–1 | Adam | 2–0 |
| Big Hut | Martin | 0–1 | j-mart | 1–0 |
| Adam | Krajcik | 0–2 | Kev | 1–0 |
| Nevans | Josh | 0–1 | Martin | 2–0 |
| Josh | Miller | 0–2 | Nevans | 1–0 |
| Martin | Nevans | 0–2 | Big Hut | 1–0 |
| Fischer | Joe Shore | 0–1 | j-mart | 2–0 |
| Joe Shore | Miller | 0–1 | Adam | 1–0 |
| Niz | Joe Shore | 0–1 | Horgan | 1–0 |
| Horgan | Niz | 0–1 | Demich | 2–0 |
Archived player statistics
Hindsight lineup using the archived roster and Yahoo-reported position eligibility; not a reconstruction of kickoff-time options.
Tinker Failures
| Manager | Points left | Avoidable losses | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | 100.53 | 3 | |
| Miller | 158.32 | 1 | |
| Kev | 223.39 | 2 | |
| Demich | 175.60 | 5 | |
| Krajcik | 140.36 | 3 | |
| Big Hut | 226.50 | 5 | |
| Adam | 142.16 | 3 | |
| Nevans | 148.46 | 3 | |
| Josh | 199.14 | 3 | |
| Martin | 196.08 | 2 | |
| Fischer | 276.47 | 2 | |
| Joe Shore | 203.22 | 3 | |
| Niz | 149.16 | 1 | |
| Horgan | 173.54 | 3 |
Carried by One Guy
| Manager | Leading player | Share | Positive starter points | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Lamar Jackson | 16.6% | 1561.65 | 14 weeks
|
| Miller | Tyreek Hill | 18.6% | 1821.01 | 14 weeks
|
| Kev | Nico Collins | 11.9% | 1719.31 | 14 weeks
|
| Demich | CeeDee Lamb | 18.1% | 1632.07 | 14 weeks
|
| Krajcik | Michael Pittman Jr. | 15.4% | 1472.68 | 14 weeks
|
| Big Hut | Tony Pollard | 12.5% | 1511.71 | 14 weeks
|
| Adam | Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.1% | 1491.49 | 14 weeks
|
| Nevans | C.J. Stroud | 14.1% | 1565.23 | 14 weeks
|
| Josh | Ja'Marr Chase | 15.5% | 1609.24 | 14 weeks
|
| Martin | Jalen Hurts | 17.3% | 1716.14 | 14 weeks
|
| Fischer | Christian McCaffrey | 22.2% | 1447.07 | 14 weeks
|
| Joe Shore | Mike Evans | 11.6% | 1985.32 | 14 weeks
|
| Niz | Stefon Diggs | 14.0% | 1740.45 | 14 weeks
|
| Horgan | Josh Allen | 19.7% | 1599.47 | 14 weeks
|
Opponent's Final Boss
| Manager | Leading opponent | Damage | Leader encounters | Receipts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| j-mart | Christian McCaffrey | 353.04 | 2 | |
| Miller | Raheem Mostert | 99.28 | 1 | |
| Kev | Tyreek Hill | 116.64 | 1 | |
| Demich | Evan Engram | 325.11 | 2 | |
| Krajcik | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 263.19 | 1 | |
| Big Hut | Kyren Williams | 238.81 | 1 | |
| Adam | Christian McCaffrey | 181.08 | 1 | |
| Nevans | Brock Purdy | 131.93 | 1 | |
| Josh | Josh Allen | 214.66 | 1 | |
| Martin | Calvin Ridley | 323.73 | 1 | |
| Fischer | Jalen Hurts | 215.61 | 1 | |
| Joe Shore | C.J. Stroud | 174.02 | 1 | |
| Niz | De'Von Achane | 267.58 | 1 | |
| Horgan | Keenan Allen | 315.30 | 1 |
Postseason scorecards
Actual participants only. These scores do not enter regular-season luck.