2023 week 13 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

j-mart

72.03

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh

124.00

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 80.43 vs. actual 72.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	20.68	Gardner Minshew II	20.68
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.20	Jaylen Waddle	10.20
WR	Tank Dell	0.00	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	13.20
RB	Devin Singletary	5.00	Devin Singletary	5.00
RB	Joshua Kelley	4.50	Joshua Kelley	4.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	5.90	Pat Freiermuth	5.90
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	10.20	Gerald Everett	8.40
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	14.40	Rashee Rice	14.40
DEF	Cowboys	-1.85	Cowboys	-1.85

Carried by One Guy: Gardner Minshew II, 20.68 points (28.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 124.00 vs. actual 124.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	7.98	Justin Herbert	7.98
WR	Calvin Ridley	7.30	Calvin Ridley	7.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	33.62	Ja'Marr Chase	33.62
RB	David Montgomery	12.50	David Montgomery	12.50
RB	Jerome Ford	14.20	Jerome Ford	14.20
TE	Trey McBride	22.90	Trey McBride	22.90
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	5.80	Kareem Hunt	5.80
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	10.00	Javonte Williams	10.00
DEF	Jets	9.70	Jets	9.70

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 33.62 points (27.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

Miller

148.29

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Kev

133.83

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 152.79 vs. actual 148.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	19.18	Jordan Love	23.68
WR	Tyreek Hill	34.30	Tyreek Hill	34.30
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	15.60	Brandon Aiyuk	15.60
RB	Breece Hall	10.50	Breece Hall	10.50
RB	Brian Robinson	5.30	Brian Robinson	5.30
TE	Jake Ferguson	19.70	Jake Ferguson	19.70
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	24.60	DeVonta Smith	24.60
W/R/T	Tyjae Spears	13.60	Tyjae Spears	13.60
DEF	Broncos	5.51	Broncos	5.51

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 34.30 points (23.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 142.03 vs. actual 133.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	11.80	Kyler Murray	11.80
WR	Cooper Kupp	15.90	Cooper Kupp	15.90
WR	Nico Collins	36.10	Nico Collins	36.10
RB	Kyren Williams	20.20	Kyren Williams	20.20
RB	Zach Charbonnet	16.90	Zach Charbonnet	16.90
TE	Travis Kelce	12.10	Travis Kelce	12.10
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	10.80	Keenan Allen	10.80
W/R/T	Drake London	1.80	Jameson Williams	10.00
DEF	Rams	8.23	Rams	8.23

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 36.10 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 34.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

Krajcik

90.51

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

127.12

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.80 points left. Optimal 104.31 vs. actual 90.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	19.20	Tua Tagovailoa	19.20
WR	Christian Kirk	3.60	Christian Kirk	3.60
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	29.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	29.50
RB	Najee Harris	9.70	Najee Harris	9.70
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	2.90	Rhamondre Stevenson	2.90
TE	Logan Thomas	2.00	Jonnu Smith	3.00
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	0.00	Zay Jones	12.80
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	4.00	D'Andre Swift	4.00
DEF	Colts	19.61	Colts	19.61

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 29.50 points (32.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 39.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 135.72 vs. actual 127.12.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	16.06	C.J. Stroud	16.06
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	39.00	DJ Chark	8.60
WR	Terry McLaurin	0.00	Deebo Samuel Sr.	39.00
RB	Joe Mixon	29.70	Joe Mixon	29.70
RB	Bijan Robinson	10.90	Bijan Robinson	10.90
TE	Chig Okonkwo	9.40	Chig Okonkwo	9.40
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	16.50	Brandin Cooks	16.50
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.90	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.90
DEF	Eagles	-2.34	Eagles	-2.34

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 39.00 points (30.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

Demich

132.47

Rank 5; -2.5 luck points

Martin

148.98

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 140.77 vs. actual 132.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Bryce Young	7.12	Bryce Young	7.12
WR	A.J. Brown	21.40	A.J. Brown	21.40
WR	CeeDee Lamb	34.60	CeeDee Lamb	34.60
RB	James Conner	24.50	James Conner	24.50
RB	Elijah Mitchell	1.30	Elijah Mitchell	1.30
TE	George Kittle	10.80	George Kittle	10.80
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	11.20	Elijah Moore	12.30
W/R/T	A.T. Perry	4.00	Romeo Doubs	11.20
DEF	Chargers	17.55	Chargers	17.55

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 34.60 points (26.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian Watson scored 27.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.70 points left. Optimal 153.68 vs. actual 148.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	23.92	Jalen Hurts	23.92
WR	Adam Thielen	5.50	Christian Watson	27.60
WR	Christian Watson	27.60	Quentin Johnston	10.20
RB	Derrick Henry	27.00	Derrick Henry	27.00
RB	De'Von Achane	25.30	De'Von Achane	25.30
TE	Tyler Conklin	6.50	Tyler Conklin	6.50
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	15.70	Courtland Sutton	15.70
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	9.70	AJ Dillon	9.70
DEF	Titans	7.76	Titans	7.76

Carried by One Guy: Christian Watson, 27.60 points (18.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

Fischer

93.05

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Horgan

91.65

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.80 points left. Optimal 102.85 vs. actual 93.05.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	25.12	Trevor Lawrence	25.12
WR	Tee Higgins	6.60	Tee Higgins	6.60
WR	Jahan Dotson	4.30	Jahan Dotson	4.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	22.30	Christian McCaffrey	22.30
RB	Rico Dowdle	3.20	Miles Sanders	3.90
TE	Brevin Jordan	9.40	Brevin Jordan	9.40
W/R/T	Royce Freeman	0.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.10
W/R/T	Rachaad White	19.60	Rachaad White	19.60
DEF	Chiefs	2.53	Chiefs	2.53

Carried by One Guy: Trevor Lawrence, 25.12 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.10 points left. Optimal 101.75 vs. actual 91.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	8.94	Derek Carr	8.94
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	12.90
WR	Garrett Wilson	8.00	Garrett Wilson	8.00
RB	Zack Moss	7.70	Kenny Gainwell	9.70
RB	Dameon Pierce	10.10	Dameon Pierce	10.10
TE	Evan Engram	23.20	Evan Engram	23.20
W/R/T	Noah Brown	0.00	Jerry Jeudy	8.10
W/R/T	George Pickens	12.60	George Pickens	12.60
DEF	Buccaneers	8.21	Buccaneers	8.21

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Evan Engram, 23.20 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Trevor Lawrence scored 25.12; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

Adam

79.89

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

206.07

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.42 points left. Optimal 100.31 vs. actual 79.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	9.88	Matthew Stafford	22.96
WR	Tyler Lockett	9.70	Tyler Lockett	9.70
WR	Josh Downs	4.40	Josh Downs	4.40
RB	Jaylen Warren	6.50	Jaylen Warren	6.50
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	6.40	Jahmyr Gibbs	6.40
TE	Taysom Hill	15.40	Taysom Hill	15.40
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	6.40	Amari Cooper	6.40
W/R/T	Greg Dortch	3.86	Antonio Gibson	11.20
DEF	Falcons	17.35	Falcons	17.35

Carried by One Guy: Falcons, 17.35 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 16.52 points left. Optimal 222.59 vs. actual 206.07.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	13.00	Jared Goff	16.32
WR	Mike Evans	31.20	Mike Evans	31.20
WR	DK Metcalf	39.40	DK Metcalf	39.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	28.90	Alvin Kamara	28.90
RB	Austin Ekeler	4.70	Travis Etienne Jr.	17.90
TE	Sam LaPorta	31.00	Sam LaPorta	31.00
W/R/T	Chris Olave	18.90	Chris Olave	18.90
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	25.90	Puka Nacua	25.90
DEF	Dolphins	13.07	Dolphins	13.07

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 39.40 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 28 – Dec 4, 2023

Big Hut

109.17

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Niz

101.29

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.70 points left. Optimal 112.87 vs. actual 109.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	28.26	Dak Prescott	28.26
WR	Curtis Samuel	10.50	Curtis Samuel	10.50
WR	Tutu Atwell	1.90	Jayden Reed	5.60
RB	Tony Pollard	17.30	Tony Pollard	17.30
RB	Isiah Pacheco	23.30	Isiah Pacheco	23.30
TE	Cade Otton	0.00	Cade Otton	0.00
W/R/T	Raheem Mostert	12.10	Raheem Mostert	12.10
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	13.30	Diontae Johnson	13.30
DEF	Jaguars	2.51	Jaguars	2.51

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 28.26 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 101.29 vs. actual 101.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	31.46	Brock Purdy	31.46
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	18.90	DeAndre Hopkins	18.90
WR	Josh Reynolds	2.20	Josh Reynolds	2.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	13.20	Ezekiel Elliott	13.20
RB	Chuba Hubbard	24.40	Chuba Hubbard	24.40
TE	Tyler Higbee	5.50	Tyler Higbee	5.50
W/R/T	Robert Woods	0.00	Robert Woods	0.00
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	0.00	Dalton Schultz	0.00
DEF	49ers	5.63	49ers	5.63

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 31.46 points (31.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Dak Prescott scored 28.26; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–7	6.385	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	8–5	8.462	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Kev	6–7	7.769	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Demich	6–7	6.615	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Krajcik	5–8	4.923	+4.5	+0.346	2 / 1
Big Hut	4–9	4.154	-1.0	-0.077	3 / 1
Adam	5–8	4.846	+4.5	+0.346	2 / 1
Nevans	8–5	5.769	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Josh	5–8	6.077	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	6–7	7.308	-9.0	-0.692	1 / 3
Fischer	6–7	4.462	+8.5	+0.654	4 / 1
Joe Shore	10–3	10.077	-5.5	-0.423	2 / 3
Niz	9–4	7.846	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	7–6	6.308	-2.5	-0.192	3 / 2

2023 week 13 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 13