2023 week 11 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

j-mart

128.36

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Kev

114.81

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 1.00 points left. Optimal 129.36 vs. actual 128.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	23.96	Lamar Jackson	23.96
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	7.00	Rashod Bateman	8.00
WR	Tank Dell	30.90	Tank Dell	30.90
RB	Devin Singletary	21.80	Devin Singletary	21.80
RB	Justice Hill	1.70	Justice Hill	1.70
TE	Mark Andrews	4.30	Mark Andrews	4.30
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	9.50	Jaylen Waddle	9.50
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	8.20	Rashee Rice	8.20
DEF	Cowboys	21.00	Cowboys	21.00

Carried by One Guy: Tank Dell, 30.90 points (24.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.10 points left. Optimal 131.91 vs. actual 114.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	21.66	Kyler Murray	21.66
WR	Keenan Allen	29.60	Keenan Allen	29.60
WR	Cooper Kupp	2.10	Jameson Williams	12.40
RB	Alexander Mattison	7.00	Alexander Mattison	7.00
RB	Khalil Herbert	6.10	Zach Charbonnet	12.90
TE	Travis Kelce	15.40	Travis Kelce	15.40
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	12.40	Rondale Moore	12.40
W/R/T	Nico Collins	13.50	Nico Collins	13.50
DEF	Ravens	7.05	Ravens	7.05

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 29.60 points (25.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tank Dell scored 30.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

Big Hut

91.26

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Adam

106.68

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 32.02 points left. Optimal 123.28 vs. actual 91.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	8.74	Dak Prescott	16.16
WR	Zay Flowers	8.00	Khalil Shakir	22.50
WR	Jayden Reed	19.34	Jayden Reed	19.34
RB	Tony Pollard	18.00	Tony Pollard	18.00
RB	Isiah Pacheco	10.10	Isiah Pacheco	10.10
TE	Cole Kmet	5.00	Cole Kmet	5.00
W/R/T	Raheem Mostert	10.30	Raheem Mostert	10.30
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	3.60	Samaje Perine	13.70
DEF	Jaguars	8.18	Jaguars	8.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jayden Reed, 19.34 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jaylen Warren scored 25.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.56 points left. Optimal 107.24 vs. actual 106.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	13.22	Geno Smith	13.22
WR	Tyler Lockett	10.10	Tyler Lockett	10.10
WR	Tyler Boyd	5.20	Kadarius Toney	5.76
RB	Jaylen Warren	25.50	Jaylen Warren	25.50
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	21.50	Jahmyr Gibbs	21.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	1.70	Pat Freiermuth	1.70
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	7.40	Amari Cooper	7.40
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	12.90	Darrell Henderson Jr.	12.90
DEF	Texans	9.16	Texans	9.16

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Warren, 25.50 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

Josh

124.37

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

123.35

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.00 points left. Optimal 128.37 vs. actual 124.37.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	25.70	Justin Herbert	25.70
WR	Calvin Ridley	33.10	Calvin Ridley	33.10
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	9.20	Ja'Marr Chase	9.20
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	2.70	Kareem Hunt	6.70
RB	Jerome Ford	11.90	Jerome Ford	11.90
TE	Trey McBride	9.30	Trey McBride	9.30
W/R/T	David Montgomery	17.80	David Montgomery	17.80
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	7.30	Javonte Williams	7.30
DEF	Browns	7.37	Browns	7.37

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 33.10 points (26.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.40 points left. Optimal 136.75 vs. actual 123.35.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	18.90	Jalen Hurts	18.90
WR	Adam Thielen	15.40	Adam Thielen	15.40
WR	Davante Adams	21.20	Davante Adams	21.20
RB	Derrick Henry	5.40	AJ Dillon	10.10
RB	James Cook III	19.20	James Cook III	19.20
TE	Tyler Conklin	3.80	Tyler Conklin	3.80
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	16.60	Courtland Sutton	16.60
W/R/T	De'Von Achane	1.50	Christian Watson	10.20
DEF	Bills	21.35	Bills	21.35

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Bills, 21.35 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Calvin Ridley scored 33.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

Krajcik

102.45

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

109.62

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.80 points left. Optimal 105.25 vs. actual 102.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	19.60	Tua Tagovailoa	19.60
WR	Christian Kirk	7.80	Zay Jones	6.00
WR	Hollywood Brown	3.20	Christian Kirk	7.80
RB	Saquon Barkley	30.00	Saquon Barkley	30.00
RB	Najee Harris	4.60	Najee Harris	4.60
TE	Logan Thomas	8.80	Logan Thomas	8.80
W/R/T	Latavius Murray	3.50	Latavius Murray	3.50
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	19.70	D'Andre Swift	19.70
DEF	Seahawks	5.25	Seahawks	5.25

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 30.00 points (29.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 21.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.44 points left. Optimal 127.06 vs. actual 109.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joshua Dobbs	16.94	Trevor Lawrence	32.18
WR	Jakobi Meyers	8.90	Jakobi Meyers	8.90
WR	Jahan Dotson	11.30	Jahan Dotson	11.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	21.30	Christian McCaffrey	21.30
RB	Rachaad White	17.80	Rachaad White	17.80
TE	Luke Musgrave	6.80	Luke Musgrave	6.80
W/R/T	Rico Dowdle	4.00	Miles Sanders	6.20
W/R/T	Ty Chandler	15.00	Ty Chandler	15.00
DEF	Chiefs	7.58	Chiefs	7.58

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 21.30 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

Demich

113.56

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

119.09

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.00 points left. Optimal 121.56 vs. actual 113.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	23.16	Justin Fields	23.16
WR	A.J. Brown	1.80	CeeDee Lamb	16.50
WR	CeeDee Lamb	16.50	Elijah Moore	12.00
RB	James Conner	8.30	Jerick McKinnon	3.50
RB	Kenneth Walker	2.60	James Conner	8.30
TE	George Kittle	22.90	George Kittle	22.90
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	12.00	Cade Otton	8.90
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	16.30	Romeo Doubs	16.30
DEF	Broncos	10.00	Broncos	10.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 23.16 points (20.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DK Metcalf scored 20.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.59 points left. Optimal 129.68 vs. actual 119.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	16.88	Patrick Mahomes	16.88
WR	Mike Evans	15.30	Mike Evans	15.30
WR	DK Metcalf	20.40	DK Metcalf	20.40
RB	Austin Ekeler	7.00	Austin Ekeler	7.00
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.90	Travis Etienne Jr.	8.90
TE	Sam LaPorta	6.80	David Njoku	12.60
W/R/T	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.60	Odell Beckham Jr.	17.60
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	18.70	Puka Nacua	18.70
DEF	Steelers	7.51	Dolphins	12.30

Carried by One Guy: DK Metcalf, 20.40 points (17.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

Nevans

115.31

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Niz

119.76

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.00 points left. Optimal 126.31 vs. actual 115.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	17.34	C.J. Stroud	17.34
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	9.20	Deebo Samuel Sr.	9.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	9.30	Terry McLaurin	9.30
RB	Joe Mixon	21.00	Joe Mixon	21.00
RB	Gus Edwards	21.00	Gus Edwards	21.00
TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.60	Dalton Kincaid	10.60
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	7.20	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.90
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.90	Darius Slayton	18.20
DEF	Commanders	9.77	Commanders	9.77

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joe Mixon, 21.00 points (18.2% of positive starter points); Gus Edwards, 21.00 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Brock Purdy scored 28.72; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 119.76 vs. actual 119.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	28.72	Brock Purdy	28.72
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	15.90	DeAndre Hopkins	15.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.70	Stefon Diggs	6.70
RB	Josh Jacobs	6.10	Josh Jacobs	6.10
RB	Chuba Hubbard	8.50	Chuba Hubbard	8.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	9.50	T.J. Hockenson	9.50
W/R/T	DJ Moore	22.60	DJ Moore	22.60
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	11.20	Dalton Schultz	11.20
DEF	49ers	10.54	49ers	10.54

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 28.72 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 14 – 20, 2023

Miller

156.06

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

91.51

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.14 points left. Optimal 161.20 vs. actual 156.06.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	17.74	Jordan Love	22.88
WR	Tyreek Hill	32.60	Tyreek Hill	32.60
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	28.60	Brandon Aiyuk	28.60
RB	Breece Hall	18.30	Breece Hall	18.30
RB	Brian Robinson	20.20	Brian Robinson	20.20
TE	Jake Ferguson	6.20	Jake Ferguson	6.20
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	15.90	DeVonta Smith	15.90
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	7.40	Jordan Addison	7.40
DEF	Raiders	9.12	Raiders	9.12

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 32.60 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.50 points left. Optimal 100.01 vs. actual 91.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	22.50	Josh Allen	22.50
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	21.70	Robert Woods	9.40
WR	Garrett Wilson	0.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	21.70
RB	D'Onta Foreman	7.40	D'Onta Foreman	7.40
RB	Royce Freeman	7.30	Royce Freeman	7.30
TE	Evan Engram	6.90	Evan Engram	6.90
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	10.80	Jerry Jeudy	10.80
W/R/T	George Pickens	7.70	George Pickens	7.70
DEF	Lions	6.31	Lions	6.31

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 22.50 points (24.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	5–6	5.538	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	7–4	7.077	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	5–6	6.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	6–5	5.846	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Krajcik	4–7	4.615	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Big Hut	3–8	2.769	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Adam	5–6	4.769	+4.5	+0.346	2 / 1
Nevans	6–5	4.462	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Josh	4–7	5.231	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	4–7	5.923	-9.5	-0.731	0 / 3
Fischer	5–6	3.923	+6.0	+0.462	3 / 1
Joe Shore	9–2	8.462	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2
Niz	8–3	6.692	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	6–5	5.692	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2

2023 week 11 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Kev lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 11