2023 week 4 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

j-mart

119.85

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Adam

91.63

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.62 points left. Optimal 133.47 vs. actual 119.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	28.14	Lamar Jackson	28.14
WR	Jaylen Waddle	8.60	Allen Lazard	15.10
WR	Tank Dell	4.18	Jaylen Waddle	8.60
RB	Matt Breida	12.80	Matt Breida	12.80
RB	Justice Hill	3.30	Justice Hill	3.30
TE	Mark Andrews	25.00	Mark Andrews	25.00
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	3.50	Rashee Rice	6.20
W/R/T	Marvin Mims Jr.	7.20	Marvin Mims Jr.	7.20
DEF	Cowboys	27.13	Cowboys	27.13

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 28.14 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 91.63 vs. actual 91.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	9.56	Kirk Cousins	9.56
WR	Keenan Allen	12.20	Keenan Allen	12.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	26.50	Justin Jefferson	26.50
RB	Miles Sanders	6.20	Miles Sanders	6.20
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	9.10	Jahmyr Gibbs	9.10
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.10	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.10
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	9.40	Tyler Lockett	9.40
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	9.30	Michael Thomas	9.30
DEF	Bengals	5.27	Bengals	5.27

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 26.50 points (28.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

Miller

107.32

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

114.72

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.60 points left. Optimal 117.92 vs. actual 107.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	17.64	Jordan Love	17.64
WR	Tyreek Hill	10.20	Tyreek Hill	10.20
WR	DeVonta Smith	14.80	DeVonta Smith	14.80
RB	Breece Hall	9.90	Breece Hall	9.90
RB	Roschon Johnson	2.50	Brian Robinson	13.10
TE	Tyler Higbee	11.40	Tyler Higbee	11.40
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	22.80	Brandon Aiyuk	22.80
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	15.10	Gabe Davis	15.10
DEF	Patriots	2.98	Patriots	2.98

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Brandon Aiyuk, 22.80 points (21.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Stroud scored 23.84; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 120.82 vs. actual 114.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	23.84	C.J. Stroud	23.84
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	0.60	Brandin Cooks	6.70
WR	Terry McLaurin	22.60	Terry McLaurin	22.60
RB	Joe Mixon	8.60	Joe Mixon	8.60
RB	Bijan Robinson	20.70	Bijan Robinson	20.70
TE	Dalton Kincaid	6.70	Dalton Kincaid	6.70
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	21.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	21.40
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	6.90	Gus Edwards	6.90
DEF	Eagles	3.38	Eagles	3.38

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 23.84 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

Demich

143.43

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Josh

94.61

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.90 points left. Optimal 151.33 vs. actual 143.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	29.90	Justin Fields	29.90
WR	CeeDee Lamb	14.80	CeeDee Lamb	14.80
WR	Romeo Doubs	18.50	Romeo Doubs	18.50
RB	James Conner	6.60	James Conner	6.60
RB	Kenneth Walker	13.90	Kenneth Walker	13.90
TE	George Kittle	1.90	George Kittle	1.90
W/R/T	A.J. Brown	40.50	Josh Reynolds	9.90
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	2.00	A.J. Brown	40.50
DEF	Chargers	15.33	Chargers	15.33

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 40.50 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 44.50 points left. Optimal 139.11 vs. actual 94.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	23.38	Justin Herbert	23.38
WR	Calvin Ridley	11.80	Calvin Ridley	11.80
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	14.30	Ja'Marr Chase	14.30
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	2.40	David Montgomery	36.10
RB	Javonte Williams	3.90	Jerome Ford	9.50
TE	Zach Ertz	11.30	Zach Ertz	11.30
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	10.70	Joshua Palmer	10.70
W/R/T	Jerome Ford	9.50	Jake Ferguson	14.70
DEF	Jets	7.33	Jets	7.33

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 23.38 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

Martin

153.57

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Niz

151.24

Rank 3; -4.5 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.60 points left. Optimal 158.17 vs. actual 153.57.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	26.16	Jalen Hurts	26.16
WR	Davante Adams	15.50	Davante Adams	15.50
WR	Courtland Sutton	11.70	Courtland Sutton	11.70
RB	Derrick Henry	26.38	Derrick Henry	26.38
RB	James Cook III	14.70	James Cook III	14.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	4.50	Hunter Henry	9.10
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	15.20	Adam Thielen	15.20
W/R/T	De'Von Achane	29.00	De'Von Achane	29.00
DEF	Bills	10.43	Bills	10.43

Carried by One Guy: De'Von Achane, 29.00 points (18.9% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.20 points left. Optimal 151.44 vs. actual 151.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	21.32	Brock Purdy	21.32
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.30	DeAndre Hopkins	10.30
WR	Stefon Diggs	38.00	Stefon Diggs	38.00
RB	Josh Jacobs	27.90	Josh Jacobs	27.90
RB	Cam Akers	7.10	Chuba Hubbard	7.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	4.40	T.J. Hockenson	4.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	29.10	DJ Moore	29.10
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	9.70	Wan'Dale Robinson	9.70
DEF	49ers	3.42	49ers	3.42

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 38.00 points (25.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: De'Von Achane scored 29.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

Kev

160.88

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

106.88

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.93 points left. Optimal 182.81 vs. actual 160.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	29.60	Anthony Richardson Sr.	29.60
WR	Nico Collins	37.80	Nico Collins	37.80
WR	Drake London	11.80	Drake London	11.80
RB	Alexander Mattison	10.80	Alexander Mattison	10.80
RB	Khalil Herbert	24.20	Khalil Herbert	24.20
TE	Travis Kelce	12.00	Travis Kelce	12.00
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	2.60	Melvin Gordon III	5.40
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	33.30	Puka Nacua	33.30
DEF	Steelers	-1.22	Ravens	17.91

Carried by One Guy: Nico Collins, 37.80 points (23.3% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 35.60 points left. Optimal 142.48 vs. actual 106.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	16.48	Trevor Lawrence	16.48
WR	Jakobi Meyers	5.30	Jahan Dotson	12.70
WR	Tee Higgins	3.90	Michael Wilson	26.60
RB	Christian McCaffrey	50.70	Christian McCaffrey	50.70
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	6.00	Jaylen Warren	11.50
TE	Luke Musgrave	1.10	Luke Musgrave	1.10
W/R/T	Joshua Kelley	6.50	Joshua Kelley	6.50
W/R/T	Rachaad White	10.80	Rachaad White	10.80
DEF	Chiefs	6.10	Chiefs	6.10

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 50.70 points (47.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

Krajcik

85.91

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

104.82

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.10 points left. Optimal 92.01 vs. actual 85.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	13.22	Patrick Mahomes	13.22
WR	Christian Kirk	16.64	Christian Kirk	16.64
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	4.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	4.50
RB	D'Andre Swift	17.90	D'Andre Swift	17.90
RB	Najee Harris	11.30	Najee Harris	11.30
TE	Pat Freiermuth	3.70	Chig Okonkwo	5.90
W/R/T	Nelson Agholor	1.40	DeVante Parker	5.30
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	4.18	Antonio Gibson	4.18
DEF	Buccaneers	13.07	Buccaneers	13.07

Carried by One Guy: D'Andre Swift, 17.90 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyren Williams scored 29.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 43.79 points left. Optimal 148.61 vs. actual 104.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	13.98	Tua Tagovailoa	13.98
WR	DK Metcalf	12.40	Hollywood Brown	16.60
WR	Chris Olave	1.40	DK Metcalf	12.40
RB	Raheem Mostert	5.50	Alvin Kamara	21.40
RB	Kyren Williams	29.70	Kyren Williams	29.70
TE	Sam LaPorta	9.60	Sam LaPorta	9.60
W/R/T	Mike Evans	7.00	Mike Evans	7.00
W/R/T	Alvin Kamara	21.40	Tutu Atwell	7.40
DEF	Saints	3.84	Seahawks	30.53

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 29.70 points (28.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 26 – Oct 2, 2023

Big Hut

79.23

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

120.74

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.54 points left. Optimal 126.77 vs. actual 79.23.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	4.70	Dak Prescott	14.34
WR	Zay Flowers	8.00	Zay Flowers	8.00
WR	Jayden Reed	10.50	Jayden Reed	10.50
RB	Tony Pollard	9.00	Tony Pollard	9.00
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	10.20	Travis Etienne Jr.	10.20
TE	Darren Waller	5.10	Cole Kmet	27.60
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	26.80	Curtis Samuel	18.20
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	2.80	Isiah Pacheco	26.80
DEF	Colts	2.13	Colts	2.13

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Isiah Pacheco, 26.80 points (33.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.50 points left. Optimal 126.24 vs. actual 120.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	38.50	Josh Allen	38.50
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	16.60	Michael Gallup	11.00
WR	George Pickens	5.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	16.60
RB	Zack Moss	9.00	Zack Moss	9.00
RB	Dameon Pierce	11.80	Dameon Pierce	11.80
TE	Evan Engram	12.90	Evan Engram	12.90
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	8.20	Jerry Jeudy	8.20
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	15.00	Garrett Wilson	15.00
DEF	Browns	3.24	Browns	3.24

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 38.50 points (31.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–1	2.154	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Miller	2–2	2.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	2–2	2.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	2–2	1.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–2	1.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–4	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	2–2	2.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	3–1	1.692	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	1–3	1.692	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	2–2	2.538	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	1–3	1.385	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	4–0	3.154	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Niz	2–2	2.077	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1
Horgan	2–2	2.308	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1

2023 week 4 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 4