2023 week 9 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

j-mart

116.02

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin

86.22

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 116.02 vs. actual 116.02.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	11.48	Lamar Jackson	11.48
WR	Jaylen Waddle	8.40	Jaylen Waddle	8.40
WR	Rashee Rice	9.70	Rashee Rice	9.70
RB	Devin Singletary	4.60	Devin Singletary	4.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.90	Jonathan Taylor	17.90
TE	Mark Andrews	17.00	Mark Andrews	17.00
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.30
W/R/T	Tank Dell	32.62	Tank Dell	32.62
DEF	Cowboys	2.02	Cowboys	2.02

Carried by One Guy: Tank Dell, 32.62 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.78 points left. Optimal 93.00 vs. actual 86.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	25.88	Jalen Hurts	25.88
WR	Adam Thielen	7.90	Adam Thielen	7.90
WR	Christian Watson	4.70	Brandon Powell	9.98
RB	Derrick Henry	19.20	Derrick Henry	19.20
RB	James Cook III	7.90	James Cook III	7.90
TE	Dallas Goedert	8.00	Dallas Goedert	8.00
W/R/T	Davante Adams	7.40	Davante Adams	7.40
W/R/T	Gerald Everett	3.80	AJ Dillon	5.30
DEF	Bills	1.44	Bills	1.44

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 25.88 points (30.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tank Dell scored 32.62; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

Miller

113.18

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

130.66

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.12 points left. Optimal 120.30 vs. actual 113.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	19.70	Sam Howell	19.70
WR	Tyreek Hill	12.50	Tyreek Hill	12.50
WR	Jordan Addison	10.20	Jordan Addison	10.20
RB	Breece Hall	10.00	Breece Hall	10.00
RB	Brian Robinson	11.70	Brian Robinson	11.70
TE	Jake Ferguson	22.10	Jake Ferguson	22.10
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	0.00	DeVonta Smith	14.10
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	14.10	Tyjae Spears	7.12
DEF	Packers	12.88	Packers	12.88

Carried by One Guy: Jake Ferguson, 22.10 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Chargers scored 28.04; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 143.16 vs. actual 130.66.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	12.42	Joshua Dobbs	24.92
WR	Hollywood Brown	6.40	Hollywood Brown	6.40
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	14.40	Michael Pittman Jr.	14.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	14.30	Saquon Barkley	14.30
RB	D'Andre Swift	9.40	D'Andre Swift	9.40
TE	Jonnu Smith	23.00	Jonnu Smith	23.00
W/R/T	Logan Thomas	7.10	Logan Thomas	7.10
W/R/T	Najee Harris	15.60	Najee Harris	15.60
DEF	Chargers	28.04	Chargers	28.04

Carried by One Guy: Chargers, 28.04 points (21.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

Demich

118.15

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

110.52

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 118.15 vs. actual 118.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	16.74	Derek Carr	16.74
WR	A.J. Brown	19.60	A.J. Brown	19.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	30.10	CeeDee Lamb	30.10
RB	Jerick McKinnon	10.80	Jerick McKinnon	10.80
RB	Kenneth Walker	2.70	Kenneth Walker	2.70
TE	Cade Otton	23.00	Cade Otton	23.00
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	6.60	Romeo Doubs	6.60
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	6.08	Rashid Shaheed	6.08
DEF	Titans	2.53	Titans	2.53

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 30.10 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.18 points left. Optimal 124.70 vs. actual 110.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	24.32	Dak Prescott	30.36
WR	Zay Flowers	2.10	Khalil Shakir	10.24
WR	Jayden Reed	7.44	Jayden Reed	7.44
RB	Raheem Mostert	14.50	Raheem Mostert	14.50
RB	Isiah Pacheco	6.60	Isiah Pacheco	6.60
TE	Cole Kmet	23.50	Cole Kmet	23.50
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	22.00	Diontae Johnson	22.00
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	9.30	Tony Pollard	9.30
DEF	Buccaneers	0.76	Buccaneers	0.76

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 24.32 points (22.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: CeeDee Lamb scored 30.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

Adam

99.51

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

125.44

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.76 points left. Optimal 112.27 vs. actual 99.51.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	2.68	Geno Smith	2.68
WR	Tyler Lockett	6.20	Jamison Crowder	6.92
WR	DeMario Douglas	10.46	DeMario Douglas	10.46
RB	D'Onta Foreman	8.30	D'Onta Foreman	8.30
RB	Jaylen Warren	14.30	Jaylen Warren	14.30
TE	Taysom Hill	20.62	Taysom Hill	20.62
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	26.90	Amari Cooper	26.90
W/R/T	Josh Downs	2.00	Antonio Gibson	14.04
DEF	Falcons	8.05	Falcons	8.05

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 26.90 points (27.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Stroud scored 43.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.50 points left. Optimal 138.94 vs. actual 125.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	43.80	C.J. Stroud	43.80
WR	Brandin Cooks	1.70	DJ Chark	8.90
WR	Terry McLaurin	12.30	Terry McLaurin	12.30
RB	Joe Mixon	17.80	Joe Mixon	17.80
RB	Bijan Robinson	5.90	Bijan Robinson	5.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	16.10	Dalton Kincaid	16.10
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	3.60	Gus Edwards	17.20
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	17.20	Darius Slayton	9.90
DEF	Eagles	7.04	Eagles	7.04

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 43.80 points (34.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

Fischer

121.61

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Niz

122.60

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.21 points left. Optimal 148.82 vs. actual 121.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Gardner Minshew II	9.58	Gardner Minshew II	9.58
WR	Tee Higgins	21.00	Tee Higgins	21.00
WR	Jahan Dotson	16.90	Jahan Dotson	16.90
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	22.90	Rhamondre Stevenson	22.90
RB	Rachaad White	27.90	Rachaad White	27.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.60	Kyle Pitts Sr.	9.60
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	13.50	Jakobi Meyers	13.50
W/R/T	Keaontay Ingram	0.80	Luke Musgrave	14.10
DEF	Giants	-0.57	Chiefs	13.34

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Rachaad White, 27.90 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stefon Diggs scored 22.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.60 points left. Optimal 146.20 vs. actual 122.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	18.96	Deshaun Watson	18.96
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	10.50	DeAndre Hopkins	10.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	22.60	Stefon Diggs	22.60
RB	Josh Jacobs	21.80	Josh Jacobs	21.80
RB	Chuba Hubbard	10.70	Chuba Hubbard	10.70
TE	T.J. Hockenson	13.90	T.J. Hockenson	13.90
W/R/T	DJ Moore	5.40	Dalton Schultz	29.00
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	13.50	Wan'Dale Robinson	13.50
DEF	Vikings	5.24	Vikings	5.24

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 22.60 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

Josh

93.59

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

114.04

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 93.59 vs. actual 93.59.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	7.14	Justin Herbert	7.14
WR	K.J. Osborn	3.70	K.J. Osborn	3.70
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	8.10	Ja'Marr Chase	8.10
RB	Kareem Hunt	9.80	Kareem Hunt	9.80
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.90	Aaron Jones Sr.	17.90
TE	Trey McBride	5.20	Trey McBride	5.20
W/R/T	Darrell Henderson Jr.	5.50	Darrell Henderson Jr.	5.50
W/R/T	Jerome Ford	12.70	Jerome Ford	12.70
DEF	Browns	23.55	Browns	23.55

Carried by One Guy: Browns, 23.55 points (25.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 21.00; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 114.04 vs. actual 114.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	15.80	Patrick Mahomes	15.80
WR	Mike Evans	12.70	Mike Evans	12.70
WR	Chris Olave	16.60	Chris Olave	16.60
RB	Alvin Kamara	11.00	Alvin Kamara	11.00
RB	Austin Ekeler	21.00	Austin Ekeler	21.00
TE	David Njoku	12.60	David Njoku	12.60
W/R/T	Michael Gallup	3.90	Michael Gallup	3.90
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	6.00	DK Metcalf	6.00
DEF	Saints	14.44	Saints	14.44

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 21.00 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 31 – Nov 6, 2023

Kev

99.75

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

114.98

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.90 points left. Optimal 102.65 vs. actual 99.75.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Will Levis	8.68	Will Levis	8.68
WR	Keenan Allen	15.70	Keenan Allen	15.70
WR	Cooper Kupp	6.80	Cooper Kupp	6.80
RB	Alexander Mattison	17.30	Alexander Mattison	17.30
RB	Tyler Allgeier	11.00	Tyler Allgeier	11.00
TE	Travis Kelce	4.40	Travis Kelce	4.40
W/R/T	Nico Collins	14.40	Miles Sanders	9.10
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	6.20	Nico Collins	14.40
DEF	Ravens	15.27	Ravens	15.27

Carried by One Guy: Alexander Mattison, 17.30 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Noah Brown scored 29.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.60 points left. Optimal 126.58 vs. actual 114.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	24.72	Josh Allen	24.72
WR	Garrett Wilson	13.00	Tyler Boyd	8.60
WR	George Pickens	1.90	Garrett Wilson	13.00
RB	Royce Freeman	3.20	Royce Freeman	3.20
RB	Zack Moss	2.60	Jeff Wilson Jr.	6.80
TE	Tyler Conklin	12.60	Tyler Conklin	12.60
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	8.60	Noah Brown	29.30
W/R/T	Noah Brown	29.30	Kenny Gainwell	9.30
DEF	Raiders	19.06	Raiders	19.06

Carried by One Guy: Noah Brown, 29.30 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–5	4.308	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	5–4	5.385	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	5–4	5.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	6–3	4.846	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Krajcik	4–5	4.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Big Hut	3–6	2.692	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Adam	3–6	3.538	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Nevans	5–4	3.462	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	2–7	3.462	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	4–5	5.000	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Fischer	4–5	3.615	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Joe Shore	7–2	7.000	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2
Niz	6–3	5.231	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	5–4	5.077	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2

2023 week 9 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 9