2023 week 1 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

j-mart

101.03

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Fischer

101.83

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.68 points left. Optimal 111.71 vs. actual 101.03.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	6.56	Lamar Jackson	6.56
WR	Mike Williams	8.50	Mike Williams	8.50
WR	Jaylen Waddle	11.80	Jaylen Waddle	11.80
RB	Rashaad Penny	0.00	Nick Chubb	18.70
RB	Nick Chubb	18.70	Ty Chandler	3.10
TE	Juwan Johnson	6.60	Juwan Johnson	6.60
W/R/T	Van Jefferson	6.40	Rashee Rice	11.60
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	4.30	Tank Dell	6.68
DEF	Cowboys	38.17	Cowboys	38.17

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Cowboys, 38.17 points (37.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 27.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 46.30 points left. Optimal 148.13 vs. actual 101.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	17.74	Trevor Lawrence	17.74
WR	Tee Higgins	0.00	Zay Jones	16.50
WR	Skyy Moore	0.40	Jakobi Meyers	29.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	27.90	Christian McCaffrey	27.90
RB	Rachaad White	6.90	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.90
TE	Tyler Higbee	7.90	Tyler Higbee	7.90
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.90	Jahan Dotson	9.00
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	9.00	Luke Musgrave	8.00
DEF	Packers	17.09	Packers	17.09

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 27.90 points (27.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

Miller

163.19

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Josh

137.68

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.12 points left. Optimal 172.31 vs. actual 163.19.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	4.46	Kenny Pickett	9.68
WR	Tyreek Hill	46.50	Tyreek Hill	46.50
WR	DeVonta Smith	17.70	DeVonta Smith	17.70
RB	Breece Hall	17.70	Breece Hall	17.70
RB	Brian Robinson	13.60	Roschon Johnson	17.50
TE	David Njoku	4.40	David Njoku	4.40
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	34.90	Brandon Aiyuk	34.90
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	16.10	Jordan Addison	16.10
DEF	Patriots	7.83	Patriots	7.83

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 46.50 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.50 points left. Optimal 142.18 vs. actual 137.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	20.86	Justin Herbert	20.86
WR	Calvin Ridley	26.10	Calvin Ridley	26.10
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	9.10	Ja'Marr Chase	9.10
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	26.70	Aaron Jones Sr.	26.70
RB	Javonte Williams	9.70	Javonte Williams	9.70
TE	Dalton Schultz	2.40	Dalton Schultz	2.40
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	7.30	Samaje Perine	11.80
W/R/T	David Montgomery	13.40	David Montgomery	13.40
DEF	Jets	22.12	Jets	22.12

Carried by One Guy: Aaron Jones Sr., 26.70 points (19.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tyreek Hill scored 46.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

Krajcik

106.25

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam

91.31

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.20 points left. Optimal 116.45 vs. actual 106.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	19.54	Patrick Mahomes	19.54
WR	Christian Kirk	1.90	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6.80
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	23.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	23.70
RB	Austin Ekeler	28.40	Austin Ekeler	28.40
RB	Najee Harris	5.30	Najee Harris	5.30
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.30	Pat Freiermuth	7.30
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	1.30	Allen Lazard	6.60
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	7.50	Rondale Moore	7.50
DEF	Commanders	11.31	Commanders	11.31

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 28.40 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.48 points left. Optimal 108.79 vs. actual 91.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	9.08	Kirk Cousins	18.46
WR	Keenan Allen	14.20	Keenan Allen	14.20
WR	Justin Jefferson	26.00	Justin Jefferson	26.00
RB	Miles Sanders	11.80	Miles Sanders	11.80
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	8.00	Jahmyr Gibbs	8.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.40	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.40
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	3.00	Michael Thomas	11.10
W/R/T	Dalvin Cook	8.90	Dalvin Cook	8.90
DEF	Steelers	3.93	Steelers	3.93

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Jefferson, 26.00 points (28.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Austin Ekeler scored 28.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

Nevans

89.81

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Martin

76.34

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 89.91 vs. actual 89.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Aaron Rodgers	0.00	Aaron Rodgers	0.00
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	5.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	11.30
RB	Joe Mixon	10.30	Joe Mixon	10.30
RB	Bijan Robinson	20.30	Bijan Robinson	20.30
TE	Dalton Kincaid	6.60	Dalton Kincaid	6.60
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.10	Gus Edwards	5.20
W/R/T	J.K. Dobbins	11.70	J.K. Dobbins	11.70
DEF	Eagles	14.41	Eagles	14.41

Carried by One Guy: Bijan Robinson, 20.30 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.42 points left. Optimal 82.76 vs. actual 76.34.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	12.50	Jared Goff	14.02
WR	Adam Thielen	3.20	Davante Adams	12.60
WR	Davante Adams	12.60	Courtland Sutton	13.20
RB	Derrick Henry	13.90	Derrick Henry	13.90
RB	James Cook III	10.30	James Cook III	10.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	0.00	Greg Dulcich	4.20
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	13.20	Damien Harris	3.90
W/R/T	AJ Dillon	5.60	AJ Dillon	5.60
DEF	Bills	5.04	Bills	5.04

Carried by One Guy: Derrick Henry, 13.90 points (18.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Bijan Robinson scored 20.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

Big Hut

98.68

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

124.78

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.14 points left. Optimal 101.82 vs. actual 98.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	3.18	Dak Prescott	6.32
WR	Diontae Johnson	7.80	Diontae Johnson	7.80
WR	Zay Flowers	17.70	Zay Flowers	17.70
RB	Tony Pollard	22.20	Tony Pollard	22.20
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	21.40	Travis Etienne Jr.	21.40
TE	Cole Kmet	9.40	Cole Kmet	9.40
W/R/T	Darren Waller	6.60	Darren Waller	6.60
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	9.40	Isiah Pacheco	9.40
DEF	Dolphins	1.00	Dolphins	1.00

Carried by One Guy: Tony Pollard, 22.20 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tua Tagovailoa scored 29.14; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 10.02 points left. Optimal 134.80 vs. actual 124.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	29.14	Tua Tagovailoa	29.14
WR	DK Metcalf	13.70	DK Metcalf	13.70
WR	Chris Olave	21.20	Chris Olave	21.20
RB	Raheem Mostert	13.00	Raheem Mostert	13.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	9.30	Saquon Barkley	9.30
TE	Chig Okonkwo	0.00	Chig Okonkwo	0.00
W/R/T	Mike Evans	18.60	Mike Evans	18.60
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	7.68	Kyren Williams	17.70
DEF	Saints	12.16	Saints	12.16

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 29.14 points (23.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

Kev

87.60

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Niz

111.09

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 47.20 points left. Optimal 134.80 vs. actual 87.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Anthony Richardson Sr.	20.92	Anthony Richardson Sr.	20.92
WR	Amari Cooper	6.70	Amari Cooper	6.70
WR	Drake London	0.00	Puka Nacua	23.90
RB	Alexander Mattison	13.40	Alexander Mattison	13.40
RB	Khalil Herbert	11.40	Khalil Herbert	11.40
TE	Sam LaPorta	8.90	Sam LaPorta	8.90
W/R/T	Nico Collins	14.00	Nico Collins	14.00
W/R/T	Zach Charbonnet	1.10	Tyler Allgeier	24.40
DEF	Ravens	11.18	Ravens	11.18

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Anthony Richardson Sr., 20.92 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Stefon Diggs scored 28.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.38 points left. Optimal 129.47 vs. actual 111.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	20.66	Deshaun Watson	20.66
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	13.50	DeAndre Hopkins	13.50
WR	Stefon Diggs	28.20	Stefon Diggs	28.20
RB	Josh Jacobs	9.10	Josh Jacobs	9.10
RB	Cam Akers	8.90	Cam Akers	8.90
TE	T.J. Hockenson	11.50	T.J. Hockenson	11.50
W/R/T	DJ Moore	4.50	Darnell Mooney	15.30
W/R/T	Antonio Gibson	1.32	Chuba Hubbard	8.90
DEF	49ers	13.41	49ers	13.41

Carried by One Guy: Stefon Diggs, 28.20 points (25.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 7 – 11, 2023

Demich

78.29

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

91.52

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 22.80 points left. Optimal 101.09 vs. actual 78.29.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	14.54	Justin Fields	14.54
WR	A.J. Brown	14.90	A.J. Brown	14.90
WR	CeeDee Lamb	11.70	CeeDee Lamb	11.70
RB	Jerick McKinnon	2.00	James Conner	12.00
RB	Kenneth Walker	10.70	Kenneth Walker	10.70
TE	George Kittle	4.90	George Kittle	4.90
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	3.00	Elijah Moore	9.20
W/R/T	James Conner	12.00	Romeo Doubs	18.60
DEF	Broncos	4.55	Broncos	4.55

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 14.90 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 19.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.60 points left. Optimal 99.12 vs. actual 91.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	9.04	Josh Allen	9.04
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19.10	Amon-Ra St. Brown	19.10
WR	Garrett Wilson	14.40	Garrett Wilson	14.40
RB	Jamaal Williams	7.20	Jamaal Williams	7.20
RB	Dameon Pierce	6.70	Dameon Pierce	6.70
TE	Evan Engram	9.90	Evan Engram	9.90
W/R/T	Deon Jackson	3.80	Kenny Gainwell	11.40
W/R/T	George Pickens	8.60	George Pickens	8.60
DEF	Jaguars	12.78	Jaguars	12.78

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 19.10 points (20.9% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	0–1	0.538	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Miller	1–0	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	0–1	0.154	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	0–1	0.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	1–0	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–1	0.462	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	0–1	0.308	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	1–0	0.231	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	0–1	0.923	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	0–1	0.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Fischer	1–0	0.615	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	1–0	0.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	1–0	0.769	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Horgan	1–0	0.385	+1.5	+0.115	1 / 0

2023 week 1 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 1