2023 week 7 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

j-mart

140.69

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Joe Shore

151.96

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 142.79 vs. actual 140.69.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	35.88	Lamar Jackson	35.88
WR	Jaylen Waddle	12.30	Jaylen Waddle	12.30
WR	Rashee Rice	17.00	Rashee Rice	17.00
RB	Jamaal Williams	1.40	Craig Reynolds	3.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	21.00	Jonathan Taylor	21.00
TE	Mark Andrews	22.30	Mark Andrews	22.30
W/R/T	Justice Hill	5.80	Justice Hill	5.80
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	16.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	16.30
DEF	Seahawks	8.71	Seahawks	8.71

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 35.88 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Patrick Mahomes scored 35.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.80 points left. Optimal 156.76 vs. actual 151.96.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	35.86	Patrick Mahomes	35.86
WR	Mike Evans	20.20	Mike Evans	20.20
WR	Chris Olave	12.70	Chris Olave	12.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	29.30	Alvin Kamara	29.30
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	22.70	Travis Etienne Jr.	22.70
TE	Sam LaPorta	11.20	Sam LaPorta	11.20
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	5.60	David Njoku	10.40
W/R/T	Jauan Jennings	10.40	Jauan Jennings	10.40
DEF	Saints	4.00	Saints	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 35.86 points (23.6% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

Demich

114.45

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Nevans

95.81

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 122.65 vs. actual 114.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	19.44	Derek Carr	19.44
WR	A.J. Brown	31.70	A.J. Brown	31.70
WR	Rashid Shaheed	7.20	Rashid Shaheed	7.20
RB	Kenneth Walker	15.10	Jerick McKinnon	4.60
RB	Keaontay Ingram	0.00	Kenneth Walker	15.10
TE	George Kittle	13.00	George Kittle	13.00
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	6.30	Elijah Moore	9.90
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	11.00	Romeo Doubs	11.00
DEF	Commanders	10.71	Commanders	10.71

Carried by One Guy: A.J. Brown, 31.70 points (27.7% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 95.81 vs. actual 95.81.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Russell Wilson	13.86	Russell Wilson	13.86
WR	Terry McLaurin	15.00	Terry McLaurin	15.00
WR	Skyy Moore	3.50	Skyy Moore	3.50
RB	Gus Edwards	21.40	Gus Edwards	21.40
RB	Bijan Robinson	0.30	Bijan Robinson	0.30
TE	Dalton Kincaid	15.50	Dalton Kincaid	15.50
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.60	Chris Godwin Jr.	12.60
W/R/T	Darius Slayton	3.20	Darius Slayton	3.20
DEF	Eagles	10.45	Eagles	10.45

Carried by One Guy: Gus Edwards, 21.40 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: A.J. Brown scored 31.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

Big Hut

108.79

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Josh

101.04

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.60 points left. Optimal 113.39 vs. actual 108.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Desmond Ridder	13.80	Desmond Ridder	13.80
WR	Tutu Atwell	10.10	Tutu Atwell	10.10
WR	Zay Flowers	11.50	Zay Flowers	11.50
RB	Raheem Mostert	6.10	Raheem Mostert	6.10
RB	Isiah Pacheco	16.00	Isiah Pacheco	16.00
TE	Darren Waller	22.80	Darren Waller	22.80
W/R/T	Curtis Samuel	6.50	Diontae Johnson	12.90
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	12.90	Jayden Reed	11.10
DEF	Jaguars	9.09	Jaguars	9.09

Carried by One Guy: Darren Waller, 22.80 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.10 points left. Optimal 122.14 vs. actual 101.04.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	10.86	Justin Herbert	10.86
WR	Calvin Ridley	1.50	K.J. Osborn	9.70
WR	Joshua Palmer	20.30	Joshua Palmer	20.30
RB	Javonte Williams	12.60	Javonte Williams	12.60
RB	Jerome Ford	17.40	Jerome Ford	17.40
TE	Michael Mayer	3.30	Trey McBride	5.90
W/R/T	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.70	Kareem Hunt	15.10
W/R/T	K.J. Osborn	9.70	Darrell Henderson Jr.	13.60
DEF	Browns	16.68	Browns	16.68

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joshua Palmer, 20.30 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Darren Waller scored 22.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

Kev

134.24

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

123.91

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.30 points left. Optimal 155.54 vs. actual 134.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	14.04	Matthew Stafford	14.04
WR	Amari Cooper	4.20	Drake London	11.40
WR	Drake London	11.40	Josh Downs	25.50
RB	Alexander Mattison	6.20	Alexander Mattison	6.20
RB	Tyler Allgeier	14.20	Tyler Allgeier	14.20
TE	Travis Kelce	37.90	Travis Kelce	37.90
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	6.90	Cooper Kupp	6.90
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	25.40	Puka Nacua	25.40
DEF	Ravens	14.00	Ravens	14.00

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 37.90 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.28 points left. Optimal 129.19 vs. actual 123.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	23.26	Jalen Hurts	23.26
WR	Davante Adams	12.70	Davante Adams	12.70
WR	Christian Watson	5.70	Brandon Powell	10.98
RB	AJ Dillon	11.50	AJ Dillon	11.50
RB	James Cook III	19.20	James Cook III	19.20
TE	Dallas Goedert	18.70	Dallas Goedert	18.70
W/R/T	Gerald Everett	11.60	Gerald Everett	11.60
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	19.60	Courtland Sutton	19.60
DEF	Bills	1.65	Bills	1.65

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 23.26 points (18.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Travis Kelce scored 37.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

Adam

122.85

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Fischer

123.26

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.76 points left. Optimal 132.61 vs. actual 122.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	13.76	Kirk Cousins	23.02
WR	Keenan Allen	9.50	Keenan Allen	9.50
WR	Michael Thomas	13.20	Michael Thomas	13.20
RB	D'Onta Foreman	33.00	D'Onta Foreman	33.00
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	27.60	Jahmyr Gibbs	27.60
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.70
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	7.80	Tyler Lockett	7.80
W/R/T	Rondale Moore	4.60	Antonio Gibson	5.10
DEF	Raiders	5.69	Raiders	5.69

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: D'Onta Foreman, 33.00 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 22.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.10 points left. Optimal 130.36 vs. actual 123.26.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	18.06	Trevor Lawrence	18.06
WR	Jakobi Meyers	18.00	Jakobi Meyers	18.00
WR	Michael Wilson	5.60	Jahan Dotson	9.30
RB	Christian McCaffrey	22.60	Christian McCaffrey	22.60
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.50	Rhamondre Stevenson	14.50
TE	Luke Musgrave	7.00	Luke Musgrave	7.00
W/R/T	Rachaad White	15.90	Joshua Kelley	13.50
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	10.10	Rachaad White	15.90
DEF	Chiefs	11.50	Chiefs	11.50

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 22.60 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

Miller

117.15

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Niz

99.62

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 117.15 vs. actual 117.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	15.30	Jordan Love	15.30
WR	Tyreek Hill	25.80	Tyreek Hill	25.80
WR	DeVonta Smith	8.90	DeVonta Smith	8.90
RB	Brian Robinson	8.30	Brian Robinson	8.30
RB	Jaleel McLaughlin	5.60	Jaleel McLaughlin	5.60
TE	Dawson Knox	4.00	Dawson Knox	4.00
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	10.70	Brandon Aiyuk	10.70
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	33.30	Jordan Addison	33.30
DEF	Patriots	5.25	Patriots	5.25

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Addison, 33.30 points (28.4% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.90 points left. Optimal 104.52 vs. actual 99.62.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	12.78	Brock Purdy	12.78
WR	Stefon Diggs	17.80	Stefon Diggs	17.80
WR	Kendrick Bourne	16.30	Kendrick Bourne	16.30
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	9.10	Ezekiel Elliott	9.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	5.10	Josh Jacobs	5.10
TE	T.J. Hockenson	19.60	T.J. Hockenson	19.60
W/R/T	DJ Moore	13.40	DJ Moore	13.40
W/R/T	Wan'Dale Robinson	3.20	Cam Akers	8.10
DEF	49ers	2.34	49ers	2.34

Carried by One Guy: T.J. Hockenson, 19.60 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordan Addison scored 33.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Oct 17 – 23, 2023

Krajcik

106.46

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

111.73

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.26 points left. Optimal 117.72 vs. actual 106.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	10.34	Baker Mayfield	16.20
WR	Christian Kirk	19.00	Christian Kirk	19.00
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.30	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.30
RB	Saquon Barkley	18.80	Saquon Barkley	18.80
RB	D'Andre Swift	10.50	D'Andre Swift	10.50
TE	Jonnu Smith	5.70	Logan Thomas	9.10
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	7.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	9.90
W/R/T	Najee Harris	15.80	Najee Harris	15.80
DEF	Rams	2.12	Rams	2.12

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Christian Kirk, 19.00 points (17.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 25.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.30 points left. Optimal 117.03 vs. actual 111.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	24.30	Josh Allen	24.30
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	25.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	25.20
WR	George Pickens	17.70	George Pickens	17.70
RB	Royce Freeman	6.60	Royce Freeman	6.60
RB	Zack Moss	7.20	Zack Moss	7.20
TE	Evan Engram	9.50	Evan Engram	9.50
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	11.40	Jerry Jeudy	11.40
W/R/T	Kadarius Toney	2.30	Kenny Gainwell	7.60
DEF	Buccaneers	7.53	Buccaneers	7.53

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 25.20 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–4	3.308	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	4–3	4.000	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	5–2	5.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	4–3	3.231	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Krajcik	2–5	2.615	-0.5	-0.038	0 / 1
Big Hut	3–4	2.308	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Adam	3–4	3.077	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Nevans	3–4	1.846	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	2–5	2.846	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	4–3	4.846	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Fischer	3–4	2.615	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Joe Shore	6–1	5.769	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Niz	4–3	3.538	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	3–4	3.923	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2

2023 week 7 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 7