2023 week 12 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

j-mart

159.73

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Miller

132.43

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.20 points left. Optimal 167.93 vs. actual 159.73.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	14.98	Lamar Jackson	14.98
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6.10	Jaylen Waddle	21.40
WR	Tank Dell	17.20	Tank Dell	17.20
RB	Devin Singletary	13.20	Devin Singletary	13.20
RB	Jonathan Taylor	21.10	Jonathan Taylor	21.10
TE	Pat Freiermuth	23.00	Pat Freiermuth	23.00
W/R/T	Jaylen Waddle	21.40	Gerald Everett	14.30
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	26.70	Rashee Rice	26.70
DEF	Cowboys	16.05	Cowboys	16.05

Carried by One Guy: Rashee Rice, 26.70 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 26.02 points left. Optimal 158.45 vs. actual 132.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	19.30	Jordan Love	26.62
WR	Tyreek Hill	27.40	Tyreek Hill	27.40
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	13.00	Brandon Aiyuk	13.00
RB	Breece Hall	11.90	Breece Hall	11.90
RB	Brian Robinson	8.40	Roschon Johnson	12.50
TE	Jake Ferguson	4.50	Jake Ferguson	4.50
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	25.60	Gabe Davis	24.50
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	9.90	DeVonta Smith	25.60
DEF	Patriots	12.43	Patriots	12.43

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 27.40 points (20.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

Kev

169.67

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut

166.76

Rank 2; -5.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.50 points left. Optimal 173.17 vs. actual 169.67.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	20.44	Kyler Murray	20.44
WR	Keenan Allen	24.60	Keenan Allen	24.60
WR	Cooper Kupp	4.80	Nico Collins	25.40
RB	Kyren Williams	40.40	Kyren Williams	40.40
RB	Zach Charbonnet	9.80	Zach Charbonnet	9.80
TE	Travis Kelce	15.10	Travis Kelce	15.10
W/R/T	Nico Collins	25.40	Alexander Mattison	8.30
W/R/T	Drake London	14.10	Drake London	14.10
DEF	Ravens	15.03	Ravens	15.03

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 40.40 points (23.8% of positive starter points).

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.00 points left. Optimal 178.76 vs. actual 166.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	34.24	Dak Prescott	34.24
WR	Zay Flowers	23.20	Zay Flowers	23.20
WR	Jayden Reed	15.00	Jayden Reed	15.00
RB	Tony Pollard	22.30	Tony Pollard	22.30
RB	Isiah Pacheco	25.90	Isiah Pacheco	25.90
TE	Cole Kmet	11.30	Cole Kmet	11.30
W/R/T	Raheem Mostert	21.40	Raheem Mostert	21.40
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	9.00	Curtis Samuel	21.00
DEF	Jaguars	4.42	Jaguars	4.42

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Dak Prescott, 34.24 points (20.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kyren Williams scored 40.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

Demich

80.92

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

106.78

Rank 12; +4.5 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.48 points left. Optimal 87.40 vs. actual 80.92.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	10.58	Justin Fields	10.58
WR	A.J. Brown	14.70	A.J. Brown	14.70
WR	CeeDee Lamb	17.30	CeeDee Lamb	17.30
RB	James Conner	7.20	James Conner	7.20
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0.50	Elijah Mitchell	4.60
TE	George Kittle	4.90	George Kittle	4.90
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	6.70	Elijah Moore	5.40
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	3.02	Romeo Doubs	6.70
DEF	Broncos	16.02	Broncos	16.02

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 17.30 points (21.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 115.38 vs. actual 106.78.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	7.82	Tua Tagovailoa	7.82
WR	Christian Kirk	12.90	Christian Kirk	12.90
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	22.70
RB	Saquon Barkley	6.20	D'Andre Swift	9.40
RB	Najee Harris	15.90	Najee Harris	15.90
TE	Logan Thomas	3.50	Logan Thomas	3.50
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	9.40	Hollywood Brown	14.80
W/R/T	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.70	Rhamondre Stevenson	21.70
DEF	Bengals	6.66	Bengals	6.66

Carried by One Guy: Michael Pittman Jr., 22.70 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

Martin

113.61

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Fischer

110.15

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 28.60 points left. Optimal 142.21 vs. actual 113.61.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	34.50	Jalen Hurts	34.50
WR	Adam Thielen	1.20	Davante Adams	12.30
WR	Davante Adams	12.30	Christian Watson	20.40
RB	Derrick Henry	20.60	Derrick Henry	20.60
RB	James Cook III	16.00	James Cook III	16.00
TE	Tyler Conklin	7.30	Tyler Conklin	7.30
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	9.10	Courtland Sutton	9.10
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	1.70	AJ Dillon	11.10
DEF	Titans	10.91	Titans	10.91

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 34.50 points (30.4% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.90 points left. Optimal 125.05 vs. actual 110.15.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	26.56	Trevor Lawrence	26.56
WR	Nelson Agholor	3.10	Nelson Agholor	3.10
WR	Jakobi Meyers	20.10	Jakobi Meyers	20.10
RB	Christian McCaffrey	32.90	Christian McCaffrey	32.90
RB	Rachaad White	15.00	Rachaad White	15.00
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.20	Kyle Pitts Sr.	4.20
W/R/T	Miles Sanders	2.80	Rico Dowdle	9.60
W/R/T	Ty Chandler	2.10	Jahan Dotson	10.20
DEF	Chiefs	3.39	Chiefs	3.39

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 32.90 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jalen Hurts scored 34.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

Nevans

137.24

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

136.00

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 137.24 vs. actual 137.24.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	32.86	C.J. Stroud	32.86
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	22.40	Deebo Samuel Sr.	22.40
WR	Terry McLaurin	9.00	Terry McLaurin	9.00
RB	Joe Mixon	8.00	Joe Mixon	8.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	27.30	Bijan Robinson	27.30
TE	Dalton Kincaid	8.80	Dalton Kincaid	8.80
W/R/T	Brandin Cooks	17.20	Brandin Cooks	17.20
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	7.50
DEF	Eagles	4.18	Eagles	4.18

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 32.86 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 19.40 points left. Optimal 155.40 vs. actual 136.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	20.82	Patrick Mahomes	20.82
WR	Mike Evans	25.00	Mike Evans	25.00
WR	Puka Nacua	6.70	Chris Olave	20.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	15.90	Alvin Kamara	15.90
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.60	Travis Etienne Jr.	12.60
TE	Sam LaPorta	17.70	Sam LaPorta	17.70
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	9.40	David Njoku	11.90
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	6.20	Austin Ekeler	9.40
DEF	Dolphins	21.68	Dolphins	21.68

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 25.00 points (18.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: C.J. Stroud scored 32.86; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

Adam

75.82

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Niz

138.68

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.40 points left. Optimal 85.22 vs. actual 75.82.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	13.36	Baker Mayfield	13.36
WR	Tyler Lockett	6.00	Justin Watson	7.30
WR	Josh Downs	9.30	Josh Downs	9.30
RB	Jaylen Warren	7.20	Jaylen Warren	7.20
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	11.30	Jahmyr Gibbs	11.30
TE	Taysom Hill	8.10	Taysom Hill	8.10
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	3.60	Greg Dortch	11.70
W/R/T	Keaton Mitchell	10.90	Keaton Mitchell	10.90
DEF	Saints	6.06	Saints	6.06

Carried by One Guy: Baker Mayfield, 13.36 points (17.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 146.98 vs. actual 138.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	10.46	Brock Purdy	10.46
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	7.90	DeAndre Hopkins	7.90
WR	Stefon Diggs	19.40	Stefon Diggs	19.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	24.50	Josh Jacobs	24.50
RB	Chuba Hubbard	20.20	Chuba Hubbard	20.20
TE	T.J. Hockenson	16.00	T.J. Hockenson	16.00
W/R/T	DJ Moore	24.40	Josh Reynolds	9.50
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	1.20	DJ Moore	24.40
DEF	49ers	14.62	49ers	14.62

Carried by One Guy: Josh Jacobs, 24.50 points (17.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 21 – 27, 2023

Josh

111.65

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

113.58

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.19 points left. Optimal 120.84 vs. actual 111.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	13.38	Justin Herbert	13.38
WR	Calvin Ridley	21.90	Calvin Ridley	21.90
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	12.10	Ja'Marr Chase	12.10
RB	David Montgomery	15.10	David Montgomery	15.10
RB	Jerome Ford	11.90	Jerome Ford	11.90
TE	Trey McBride	13.00	Trey McBride	13.00
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	10.10	Javonte Williams	10.10
W/R/T	DeMario Douglas	11.08	DeMario Douglas	11.08
DEF	Browns	3.09	Jets	12.28

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Calvin Ridley, 21.90 points (19.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 41.66; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.72 points left. Optimal 125.30 vs. actual 113.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	41.66	Josh Allen	41.66
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.50
WR	Garrett Wilson	17.40	Garrett Wilson	17.40
RB	Jeff Wilson Jr.	10.30	Jeff Wilson Jr.	10.30
RB	Dameon Pierce	2.80	Zack Moss	9.00
TE	Evan Engram	9.90	Evan Engram	9.90
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	3.10	Kenny Gainwell	5.60
W/R/T	George Pickens	8.94	George Pickens	8.94
DEF	Lions	0.98	Buccaneers	4.00

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 41.66 points (36.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–6	6.385	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	7–5	7.615	-2.0	-0.154	0 / 2
Kev	6–6	7.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	6–6	5.923	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Krajcik	5–7	4.769	+4.5	+0.346	2 / 1
Big Hut	3–9	3.692	-1.5	-0.115	2 / 1
Adam	5–7	4.769	+4.5	+0.346	2 / 1
Nevans	7–5	5.154	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Josh	4–8	5.538	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	5–7	6.385	-9.0	-0.692	1 / 3
Fischer	5–7	4.154	+6.0	+0.462	3 / 1
Joe Shore	9–3	9.077	-5.5	-0.423	2 / 3
Niz	9–3	7.462	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	7–5	6.077	-2.5	-0.192	3 / 2

2023 week 12 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Miller lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Big Hut lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 12