2023 week 10 · Luck Factor

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

j-mart

99.08

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

110.52

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 4.20 points left. Optimal 103.28 vs. actual 99.08.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	13.02	Lamar Jackson	13.02
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9.30	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	9.30
WR	Tank Dell	19.26	Tank Dell	19.26
RB	Devin Singletary	25.10	Devin Singletary	25.10
RB	Jonathan Taylor	14.50	Jonathan Taylor	14.50
TE	Mark Andrews	6.40	Mark Andrews	6.40
W/R/T	Irv Smith Jr.	1.60	Jamaal Williams	2.00
W/R/T	Justice Hill	0.70	Rashod Bateman	4.50
DEF	Cowboys	9.20	Cowboys	9.20

Carried by One Guy: Devin Singletary, 25.10 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 32.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.92 points left. Optimal 136.44 vs. actual 110.52.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	14.38	Josh Allen	14.38
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	32.50	Amon-Ra St. Brown	32.50
WR	Garrett Wilson	18.30	Garrett Wilson	18.30
RB	D'Onta Foreman	17.20	D'Onta Foreman	17.20
RB	Zack Moss	0.20	Zack Moss	0.20
TE	Evan Engram	5.20	Evan Engram	5.20
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	6.50	Noah Brown	26.20
W/R/T	George Pickens	7.50	Trenton Irwin	13.72
DEF	Raiders	8.74	Raiders	8.74

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 32.50 points (29.4% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

Kev

98.98

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Adam

156.74

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.30 points left. Optimal 107.28 vs. actual 98.98.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Will Levis	5.96	Will Levis	5.96
WR	Keenan Allen	42.50	Keenan Allen	42.50
WR	Drake London	6.60	Drake London	6.60
RB	Alexander Mattison	4.30	Alexander Mattison	4.30
RB	Tyler Allgeier	4.80	Tyler Allgeier	4.80
TE	Hunter Henry	5.10	Hunter Henry	5.10
W/R/T	JuJu Smith-Schuster	1.90	Quentin Johnston	13.40
W/R/T	Quentin Johnston	13.40	Zach Charbonnet	10.20
DEF	Ravens	14.42	Ravens	14.42

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 42.50 points (42.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.76 points left. Optimal 162.50 vs. actual 156.74.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Geno Smith	26.06	Geno Smith	26.06
WR	Tyler Lockett	23.20	Amari Cooper	15.80
WR	DeMario Douglas	14.40	Tyler Lockett	23.20
RB	Jaylen Warren	21.00	Jaylen Warren	21.00
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	26.20	Jahmyr Gibbs	26.20
TE	Taysom Hill	4.30	Taysom Hill	4.30
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	15.80	Tyler Boyd	21.70
W/R/T	Tyler Boyd	21.70	Antonio Gibson	20.16
DEF	Falcons	4.08	Falcons	4.08

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 26.20 points (16.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

Krajcik

105.18

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Josh

156.01

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.50 points left. Optimal 125.68 vs. actual 105.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joshua Dobbs	25.12	Joshua Dobbs	25.12
WR	Hollywood Brown	3.80	Christian Kirk	16.70
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.40	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.40
RB	Saquon Barkley	7.10	Saquon Barkley	7.10
RB	Najee Harris	18.60	Najee Harris	18.60
TE	Jonnu Smith	1.10	Logan Thomas	9.00
W/R/T	Logan Thomas	9.00	Latavius Murray	14.90
W/R/T	Christian Kirk	16.70	Ty Chandler	10.50
DEF	Bears	7.36	Bears	7.36

Carried by One Guy: Joshua Dobbs, 25.12 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.14 points left. Optimal 163.15 vs. actual 156.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	30.42	Justin Herbert	30.42
WR	Calvin Ridley	4.00	Calvin Ridley	4.00
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	25.40	Ja'Marr Chase	25.40
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.40	Aaron Jones Sr.	9.40
RB	Jerome Ford	13.90	Jerome Ford	13.90
TE	Trey McBride	23.10	Trey McBride	23.10
W/R/T	David Montgomery	19.60	David Montgomery	19.60
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	21.00	Javonte Williams	21.00
DEF	Jets	9.19	Browns	16.33

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 30.42 points (19.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

Big Hut

79.58

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

110.22

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.98 points left. Optimal 97.56 vs. actual 79.58.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	21.88	Dak Prescott	39.86
WR	Zay Flowers	12.30	Zay Flowers	12.30
WR	Jayden Reed	19.40	Jayden Reed	19.40
RB	Samaje Perine	7.30	Samaje Perine	7.30
RB	Tony Pollard	5.50	Tony Pollard	5.50
TE	Cole Kmet	9.60	Cole Kmet	9.60
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	2.70	Diontae Johnson	2.70
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	3.78	Khalil Shakir	3.78
DEF	Lions	-2.88	Lions	-2.88

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 21.88 points (26.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.00 points left. Optimal 137.22 vs. actual 110.22.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	21.04	C.J. Stroud	21.04
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	15.90	Brandin Cooks	34.30
WR	Terry McLaurin	7.30	Deebo Samuel Sr.	15.90
RB	Joe Mixon	12.50	Joe Mixon	12.50
RB	Bijan Robinson	17.76	Bijan Robinson	17.76
TE	Dalton Kincaid	16.10	Dalton Kincaid	16.10
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.40	Chris Godwin Jr.	9.40
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	9.80	Gus Edwards	9.80
DEF	Commanders	0.42	Commanders	0.42

Carried by One Guy: C.J. Stroud, 21.04 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

Miller

130.20

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Martin

92.86

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 130.20 vs. actual 130.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	26.18	Sam Howell	26.18
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	14.50	Brandon Aiyuk	14.50
WR	Jordan Addison	10.90	Jordan Addison	10.90
RB	Breece Hall	10.50	Breece Hall	10.50
RB	Brian Robinson	29.70	Brian Robinson	29.70
TE	Jake Ferguson	12.60	Jake Ferguson	12.60
W/R/T	Gabe Davis	9.60	Gabe Davis	9.60
W/R/T	Tyjae Spears	10.00	Tyjae Spears	10.00
DEF	Patriots	6.22	Patriots	6.22

Carried by One Guy: Brian Robinson, 29.70 points (22.8% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.54 points left. Optimal 102.40 vs. actual 92.86.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jared Goff	23.12	Jared Goff	23.12
WR	Adam Thielen	10.20	Adam Thielen	10.20
WR	Christian Watson	4.30	Brandon Powell	7.74
RB	Derrick Henry	3.00	AJ Dillon	9.10
RB	James Cook III	14.00	James Cook III	14.00
TE	Gerald Everett	0.00	Gerald Everett	0.00
W/R/T	Davante Adams	14.60	Davante Adams	14.60
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	17.30	Courtland Sutton	17.30
DEF	Bills	6.34	Bills	6.34

Carried by One Guy: Jared Goff, 23.12 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

Fischer

71.94

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

149.09

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 80.34 vs. actual 71.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	2.10	Trevor Lawrence	2.10
WR	Darnell Mooney	3.40	Jakobi Meyers	4.10
WR	Jahan Dotson	0.00	Darnell Mooney	3.40
RB	Christian McCaffrey	20.20	Christian McCaffrey	20.20
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	13.20	Rhamondre Stevenson	13.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.00	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.00
W/R/T	Jakobi Meyers	4.10	Rachaad White	17.80
W/R/T	Rachaad White	17.80	Luke Musgrave	8.40
DEF	Seahawks	5.14	Seahawks	5.14

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 20.20 points (28.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.70 points left. Optimal 155.79 vs. actual 149.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	17.26	Kyler Murray	17.26
WR	Mike Evans	28.30	Mike Evans	28.30
WR	Chris Olave	21.40	Chris Olave	21.40
RB	Alvin Kamara	18.50	Alvin Kamara	18.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	21.50	Austin Ekeler	21.50
TE	Sam LaPorta	8.00	David Njoku	11.80
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	16.80	DK Metcalf	16.80
W/R/T	Travis Etienne Jr.	6.40	Rondale Moore	9.30
DEF	Steelers	10.93	Steelers	10.93

Carried by One Guy: Mike Evans, 28.30 points (19.0% of positive starter points).

Regular

Nov 7 – 13, 2023

Demich

124.30

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Niz

131.44

Rank 4; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.40 points left. Optimal 136.70 vs. actual 124.30.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	5.40	Derek Carr	5.40
WR	CeeDee Lamb	41.50	CeeDee Lamb	41.50
WR	Romeo Doubs	12.10	Romeo Doubs	12.10
RB	James Conner	7.30	James Conner	7.30
RB	Kenneth Walker	19.70	Kenneth Walker	19.70
TE	George Kittle	22.60	George Kittle	22.60
W/R/T	Cade Otton	3.00	Elijah Moore	15.40
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	8.92	Rashid Shaheed	8.92
DEF	Cardinals	3.78	Cardinals	3.78

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 41.50 points (33.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: T.J. Hockenson scored 32.40; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 5.10 points left. Optimal 136.54 vs. actual 131.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	23.84	Brock Purdy	23.84
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	5.70	Stefon Diggs	6.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.40	DJ Moore	10.90
RB	Josh Jacobs	14.70	Josh Jacobs	14.70
RB	Chuba Hubbard	5.90	Chuba Hubbard	5.90
TE	T.J. Hockenson	32.40	T.J. Hockenson	32.40
W/R/T	DJ Moore	10.90	Ezekiel Elliott	10.80
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	11.10	Dalton Schultz	11.10
DEF	49ers	20.50	49ers	20.50

Carried by One Guy: T.J. Hockenson, 32.40 points (24.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	4–6	4.615	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	6–4	6.077	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	5–5	5.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	6–4	5.462	-1.0	-0.077	1 / 1
Krajcik	4–6	4.462	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Big Hut	3–7	2.769	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Adam	4–6	4.538	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Nevans	6–4	3.923	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Josh	3–7	4.385	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	4–6	5.154	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Fischer	4–6	3.615	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Joe Shore	8–2	7.846	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2
Niz	7–3	6.000	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	6–4	5.615	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2

2023 week 10 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Fischer lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 10