2023 week 3 · Luck Factor

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

j-mart

128.32

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

110.68

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.90 points left. Optimal 137.22 vs. actual 128.32.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	30.18	Lamar Jackson	30.18
WR	Mike Williams	27.10	Mike Williams	27.10
WR	Marvin Mims Jr.	20.02	Marvin Mims Jr.	20.02
RB	Matt Breida	10.80	Matt Breida	10.80
RB	Pierre Strong Jr.	3.22	Pierre Strong Jr.	3.22
TE	Mark Andrews	7.50	Mark Andrews	7.50
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	2.00	Rashee Rice	10.90
W/R/T	Tank Dell	27.50	Tank Dell	27.50
DEF	Cowboys	0.00	Cowboys	0.00

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 30.18 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.00 points left. Optimal 128.68 vs. actual 110.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	20.60	C.J. Stroud	20.60
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	27.10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	27.10
WR	Terry McLaurin	10.10	Terry McLaurin	10.10
RB	Joe Mixon	14.00	Joe Mixon	14.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	10.00	Bijan Robinson	10.00
TE	Dalton Kincaid	2.30	Dalton Kincaid	2.30
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	8.20	DJ Chark	18.60
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	5.10	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12.70
DEF	Eagles	13.28	Eagles	13.28

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 27.10 points (24.5% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Lamar Jackson scored 30.18; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

Miller

91.18

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Demich

118.68

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 23.48 points left. Optimal 114.66 vs. actual 91.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Daniel Jones	3.98	Jordan Love	24.26
WR	Tyreek Hill	32.70	Tyreek Hill	32.70
WR	Gabe Davis	10.30	Gabe Davis	10.30
RB	Breece Hall	3.70	Brian Robinson	7.00
RB	Brian Robinson	7.00	Roschon Johnson	6.90
TE	David Njoku	6.00	David Njoku	6.00
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	6.80	DeVonta Smith	6.80
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	11.20	Jordan Addison	11.20
DEF	Patriots	9.50	Patriots	9.50

Carried by One Guy: Tyreek Hill, 32.70 points (35.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Kenneth Walker scored 30.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.90 points left. Optimal 144.58 vs. actual 118.68.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	10.66	Justin Fields	10.66
WR	A.J. Brown	24.10	A.J. Brown	24.10
WR	CeeDee Lamb	10.20	Romeo Doubs	18.30
RB	James Conner	19.60	James Conner	19.60
RB	Kenneth Walker	30.60	Kenneth Walker	30.60
TE	George Kittle	16.00	George Kittle	16.00
W/R/T	Josh Reynolds	0.00	Jerick McKinnon	17.80
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	11.80	Elijah Moore	11.80
DEF	Jaguars	-4.28	Jaguars	-4.28

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker, 30.60 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

Big Hut

97.09

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Martin

164.25

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.20 points left. Optimal 100.29 vs. actual 97.09.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	14.36	Dak Prescott	14.36
WR	Zay Flowers	13.00	Zay Flowers	13.00
WR	Jayden Reed	9.38	Jayden Reed	9.38
RB	Tony Pollard	17.10	Tony Pollard	17.10
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	17.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	17.80
TE	Cole Kmet	4.20	Darren Waller	5.00
W/R/T	Darren Waller	5.00	Curtis Samuel	7.40
W/R/T	Isiah Pacheco	15.80	Isiah Pacheco	15.80
DEF	Commanders	0.45	Commanders	0.45

Carried by One Guy: Travis Etienne Jr., 17.80 points (18.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 66.70 points left. Optimal 230.95 vs. actual 164.25.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	19.88	Jalen Hurts	19.88
WR	Robert Woods	6.40	Robert Woods	6.40
WR	Davante Adams	44.20	Davante Adams	44.20
RB	Derrick Henry	2.00	James Cook III	13.20
RB	James Cook III	13.20	De'Von Achane	53.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	9.10	Dallas Goedert	9.10
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	33.50	Adam Thielen	33.50
W/R/T	Hunter Henry	3.70	Courtland Sutton	19.10
DEF	Bills	32.27	Bills	32.27

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 44.20 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

Josh

116.54

Rank 7; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

88.39

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.20 points left. Optimal 125.74 vs. actual 116.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	31.30	Justin Herbert	31.30
WR	Calvin Ridley	7.00	Calvin Ridley	7.00
WR	K.J. Osborn	10.60	K.J. Osborn	10.60
RB	Javonte Williams	8.50	Javonte Williams	8.50
RB	Jerome Ford	19.10	Jerome Ford	19.10
TE	Zach Ertz	2.60	Jake Ferguson	9.80
W/R/T	Samaje Perine	4.40	Allen Robinson	6.40
W/R/T	Ja'Marr Chase	28.10	Ja'Marr Chase	28.10
DEF	Jets	4.94	Jets	4.94

Carried by One Guy: Justin Herbert, 31.30 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 105.79 vs. actual 88.39.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	14.36	Trevor Lawrence	14.36
WR	Jakobi Meyers	15.50	Jakobi Meyers	15.50
WR	Tee Higgins	4.10	Skyy Moore	8.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	22.90	Christian McCaffrey	22.90
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	7.20	Rhamondre Stevenson	7.20
TE	Taysom Hill	3.10	Luke Musgrave	10.90
W/R/T	Joshua Kelley	2.70	Rachaad White	7.20
W/R/T	Rachaad White	7.20	Jaylen Warren	8.20
DEF	Chiefs	11.33	Chiefs	11.33

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 22.90 points (25.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Justin Herbert scored 31.30; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

Kev

110.71

Rank 8; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

192.40

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 13.60 points left. Optimal 124.31 vs. actual 110.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.46	Matthew Stafford	11.46
WR	Nico Collins	5.40	Nico Collins	5.40
WR	Drake London	5.10	Josh Downs	13.70
RB	Alexander Mattison	17.50	Alexander Mattison	17.50
RB	Tyler Allgeier	4.90	Zach Charbonnet	5.50
TE	Travis Kelce	19.90	Travis Kelce	19.90
W/R/T	Amari Cooper	26.60	Amari Cooper	26.60
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	12.20	Puka Nacua	12.20
DEF	Ravens	7.65	Steelers	12.05

Carried by One Guy: Amari Cooper, 26.60 points (24.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 192.50 vs. actual 192.40.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	30.36	Tua Tagovailoa	30.36
WR	DK Metcalf	19.20	DK Metcalf	19.20
WR	Chris Olave	20.40	Chris Olave	20.40
RB	Raheem Mostert	45.20	Raheem Mostert	45.20
RB	Kyren Williams	8.56	Kyren Williams	8.56
TE	Sam LaPorta	22.40	Sam LaPorta	22.40
W/R/T	Mike Evans	17.00	Hollywood Brown	17.10
W/R/T	Tutu Atwell	17.20	Tutu Atwell	17.20
DEF	Saints	12.08	Saints	12.08

Carried by One Guy: Raheem Mostert, 45.20 points (23.5% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

Krajcik

105.48

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Niz

107.18

Rank 10; +2.5 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 108.18 vs. actual 105.48.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	25.68	Patrick Mahomes	25.68
WR	Christian Kirk	15.40	Christian Kirk	15.40
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.70	Michael Pittman Jr.	16.70
RB	D'Andre Swift	16.80	D'Andre Swift	16.80
RB	Najee Harris	6.50	Najee Harris	6.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	13.10	Pat Freiermuth	13.10
W/R/T	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4.70	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4.70
W/R/T	Rashod Bateman	1.60	Antonio Gibson	4.30
DEF	Buccaneers	5.00	Buccaneers	5.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Patrick Mahomes, 25.68 points (24.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deshaun Watson scored 21.16; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.44 points left. Optimal 115.62 vs. actual 107.18.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Deshaun Watson	21.16	Brock Purdy	22.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	7.80	DeAndre Hopkins	7.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	21.10	Stefon Diggs	21.10
RB	Josh Jacobs	11.00	Ezekiel Elliott	9.70
RB	Chuba Hubbard	2.40	Josh Jacobs	11.00
TE	T.J. Hockenson	13.80	T.J. Hockenson	13.80
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	8.60	Kendrick Bourne	8.60
W/R/T	DJ Moore	13.10	DJ Moore	13.10
DEF	49ers	8.22	49ers	8.22

Carried by One Guy: Deshaun Watson, 21.16 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Sep 19 – 25, 2023

Adam

163.50

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

142.79

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 163.50 vs. actual 163.50.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	27.68	Kirk Cousins	27.68
WR	Keenan Allen	47.46	Keenan Allen	47.46
WR	Justin Jefferson	29.90	Justin Jefferson	29.90
RB	Miles Sanders	17.20	Miles Sanders	17.20
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	9.20	Jahmyr Gibbs	9.20
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	8.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	8.70
W/R/T	Tyler Lockett	8.40	Tyler Lockett	8.40
W/R/T	Michael Thomas	11.00	Michael Thomas	11.00
DEF	Seahawks	3.96	Seahawks	3.96

Carried by One Guy: Keenan Allen, 47.46 points (29.0% of positive starter points).

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 142.79 vs. actual 142.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	21.32	Josh Allen	21.32
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	21.60	Amon-Ra St. Brown	21.60
WR	George Pickens	11.50	George Pickens	11.50
RB	Zack Moss	24.50	Zack Moss	24.50
RB	Dameon Pierce	14.90	Dameon Pierce	14.90
TE	Evan Engram	13.70	Evan Engram	13.70
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	13.10	Jerry Jeudy	13.10
W/R/T	Garrett Wilson	9.80	Garrett Wilson	9.80
DEF	Browns	12.37	Browns	12.37

Carried by One Guy: Zack Moss, 24.50 points (17.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Keenan Allen scored 47.46; zeroing that score creates a win.

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	2–1	1.538	+2.0	+0.154	1 / 1
Miller	2–1	1.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Kev	1–2	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	1–2	0.923	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Krajcik	2–1	1.538	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Big Hut	0–3	0.692	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Adam	2–1	2.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Nevans	2–1	1.154	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	1–2	1.462	-5.5	-0.423	0 / 1
Martin	1–2	1.615	-2.5	-0.192	0 / 1
Fischer	1–2	1.000	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Joe Shore	3–0	2.846	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Niz	2–1	1.231	+2.5	+0.192	1 / 0
Horgan	1–2	1.615	-2.0	-0.154	1 / 1

2023 week 3 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Demich lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Adam lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 3