2023 week 8 · Luck Factor

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

j-mart

113.47

Rank 9; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik

119.72

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.47 points left. Optimal 122.94 vs. actual 113.47.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	11.98	Lamar Jackson	11.98
WR	Jaylen Waddle	27.10	Jaylen Waddle	27.10
WR	Rashee Rice	9.60	Rashee Rice	9.60
RB	Justice Hill	9.50	Justice Hill	9.50
RB	Jonathan Taylor	10.70	Jonathan Taylor	10.70
TE	Mark Andrews	14.00	Mark Andrews	14.00
W/R/T	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.60	Pierre Strong Jr.	9.50
W/R/T	Tank Dell	6.60	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	12.60
DEF	Seahawks	11.39	Cowboys	17.96

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 27.10 points (23.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Tua Tagovailoa scored 23.76; zeroing that score creates a win.

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.10 points left. Optimal 133.82 vs. actual 119.72.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	23.76	Tua Tagovailoa	23.76
WR	Christian Kirk	8.60	Christian Kirk	8.60
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	18.00	Michael Pittman Jr.	18.00
RB	Saquon Barkley	17.80	Saquon Barkley	17.80
RB	D'Andre Swift	14.40	D'Andre Swift	14.40
TE	Jonnu Smith	2.30	Logan Thomas	16.40
W/R/T	Hollywood Brown	15.30	Hollywood Brown	15.30
W/R/T	Najee Harris	10.50	Najee Harris	10.50
DEF	Chargers	9.06	Chargers	9.06

Carried by One Guy: Tua Tagovailoa, 23.76 points (19.8% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

Kev

67.79

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Nevans

132.65

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 36.46 points left. Optimal 104.25 vs. actual 67.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Matthew Stafford	11.38	Matthew Stafford	11.38
WR	Nico Collins	7.00	Amari Cooper	14.90
WR	Drake London	10.50	Drake London	10.50
RB	Alexander Mattison	4.30	Alexander Mattison	4.30
RB	Tyler Allgeier	3.10	Zach Charbonnet	8.40
TE	Travis Kelce	11.80	Travis Kelce	11.80
W/R/T	Cooper Kupp	6.10	Taysom Hill	22.46
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	7.30	Josh Downs	14.20
DEF	Ravens	6.31	Ravens	6.31

Carried by One Guy: Travis Kelce, 11.80 points (17.4% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.56 points left. Optimal 147.21 vs. actual 132.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	12.90	Russell Wilson	17.56
WR	DJ Chark	4.30	Brandin Cooks	14.20
WR	Terry McLaurin	17.30	Terry McLaurin	17.30
RB	Joe Mixon	20.00	Joe Mixon	20.00
RB	Bijan Robinson	12.20	Bijan Robinson	12.20
TE	Dalton Kincaid	17.50	Dalton Kincaid	17.50
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.80	Chris Godwin Jr.	17.80
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	29.40	Gus Edwards	29.40
DEF	Eagles	1.25	Eagles	1.25

Carried by One Guy: Gus Edwards, 29.40 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

Demich

159.71

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Adam

113.11

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.76 points left. Optimal 181.47 vs. actual 159.71.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Derek Carr	20.30	Derek Carr	20.30
WR	A.J. Brown	35.00	A.J. Brown	35.00
WR	CeeDee Lamb	43.00	CeeDee Lamb	43.00
RB	Jerick McKinnon	1.80	Jerick McKinnon	1.80
RB	Kenneth Walker	8.00	Kenneth Walker	8.00
TE	George Kittle	25.90	George Kittle	25.90
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	5.46	Romeo Doubs	11.80
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	11.80	Rashid Shaheed	27.22
DEF	Titans	8.45	Titans	8.45

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 43.00 points (26.9% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.74 points left. Optimal 128.85 vs. actual 113.11.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kirk Cousins	19.86	Kirk Cousins	19.86
WR	Tyler Lockett	22.10	Tyler Lockett	22.10
WR	Michael Thomas	10.80	Michael Thomas	10.80
RB	Miles Sanders	0.00	Antonio Gibson	9.74
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	31.90	Jahmyr Gibbs	31.90
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	6.50
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	14.90	Keenan Allen	14.90
W/R/T	D'Onta Foreman	4.60	Jake Bobo	10.60
DEF	Falcons	2.45	Falcons	2.45

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 31.90 points (28.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

Martin

106.54

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Horgan

130.88

Rank 6; 0.0 luck points

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.60 points left. Optimal 118.14 vs. actual 106.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	29.36	Jalen Hurts	29.36
WR	Adam Thielen	15.20	Adam Thielen	15.20
WR	Christian Watson	6.30	Michael Wilson	9.80
RB	Derrick Henry	18.20	Derrick Henry	18.20
RB	James Cook III	8.30	James Cook III	8.30
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.60	Dallas Goedert	7.60
W/R/T	Davante Adams	2.10	Courtland Sutton	10.90
W/R/T	Courtland Sutton	10.90	AJ Dillon	10.20
DEF	Bills	8.58	Bills	8.58

Carried by One Guy: Jalen Hurts, 29.36 points (27.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Josh Allen scored 31.06; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.20 points left. Optimal 145.08 vs. actual 130.88.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	31.06	Josh Allen	31.06
WR	Jerry Jeudy	13.00	Jerry Jeudy	13.00
WR	Garrett Wilson	19.60	Garrett Wilson	19.60
RB	Royce Freeman	10.40	Royce Freeman	10.40
RB	Dameon Pierce	4.60	Zack Moss	14.40
TE	Evan Engram	16.80	Evan Engram	16.80
W/R/T	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.80	Tyler Boyd	13.60
W/R/T	George Pickens	9.20	Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.80
DEF	Dolphins	7.42	Dolphins	7.42

Carried by One Guy: Josh Allen, 31.06 points (23.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

Big Hut

94.94

Rank 13; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

111.79

Rank 11; +3.5 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 24.74 points left. Optimal 119.68 vs. actual 94.94.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joe Burrow	27.62	Dak Prescott	30.06
WR	Tutu Atwell	6.90	Tutu Atwell	6.90
WR	Zay Flowers	6.90	Zay Flowers	6.90
RB	Raheem Mostert	10.60	Raheem Mostert	10.60
RB	Isiah Pacheco	6.70	Isiah Pacheco	6.70
TE	Darren Waller	1.40	Cole Kmet	17.90
W/R/T	Diontae Johnson	16.50	Diontae Johnson	16.50
W/R/T	Tony Pollard	6.50	Jayden Reed	12.30
DEF	Jaguars	11.82	Jaguars	11.82

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Joe Burrow, 27.62 points (29.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Christian McCaffrey scored 29.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.80 points left. Optimal 137.59 vs. actual 111.79.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Trevor Lawrence	14.68	Trevor Lawrence	14.68
WR	Jakobi Meyers	2.90	Tee Higgins	11.90
WR	Tee Higgins	11.90	Jahan Dotson	26.80
RB	Rhamondre Stevenson	7.00	Rachaad White	17.90
RB	Rachaad White	17.90	Emari Demercado	8.90
TE	Cade Otton	8.70	Cade Otton	8.70
W/R/T	Christian McCaffrey	29.80	Christian McCaffrey	29.80
W/R/T	Jaylen Warren	7.80	Jaylen Warren	7.80
DEF	Chiefs	11.11	Chiefs	11.11

Carried by One Guy: Christian McCaffrey, 29.80 points (26.7% of positive starter points).

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

Miller

176.97

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

140.16

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 9.60 points left. Optimal 186.57 vs. actual 176.97.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Sam Howell	32.98	Sam Howell	32.98
WR	Tyreek Hill	27.20	Tyreek Hill	27.20
WR	Jordan Addison	21.40	Jordan Addison	21.40
RB	Breece Hall	21.30	Breece Hall	21.30
RB	Roschon Johnson	6.10	Brian Robinson	9.90
TE	Jake Ferguson	14.70	Jake Ferguson	14.70
W/R/T	Brandon Aiyuk	17.90	Gabe Davis	23.70
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	22.90	DeVonta Smith	22.90
DEF	Lions	12.49	Lions	12.49

Carried by One Guy: Sam Howell, 32.98 points (18.6% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 155.16 vs. actual 140.16.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	5.60	Patrick Mahomes	5.60
WR	Mike Evans	12.90	Mike Evans	12.90
WR	Chris Olave	9.60	DK Metcalf	11.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	27.00	Alvin Kamara	27.00
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	25.90	Travis Etienne Jr.	25.90
TE	Sam LaPorta	19.70	Sam LaPorta	19.70
W/R/T	Austin Ekeler	23.30	David Njoku	17.70
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	11.70	Austin Ekeler	23.30
DEF	Saints	4.46	Steelers	11.36

Carried by One Guy: Alvin Kamara, 27.00 points (19.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Oct 24 – 30, 2023

Josh

122.44

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Niz

143.36

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.90 points left. Optimal 161.34 vs. actual 122.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	24.02	Justin Herbert	24.02
WR	Calvin Ridley	14.30	Calvin Ridley	14.30
WR	K.J. Osborn	17.90	K.J. Osborn	17.90
RB	Kareem Hunt	13.70	Kareem Hunt	13.70
RB	Aaron Jones Sr.	8.60	Darrell Henderson Jr.	11.50
TE	Michael Mayer	2.90	Trey McBride	25.50
W/R/T	Ja'Marr Chase	27.20	Ja'Marr Chase	27.20
W/R/T	Joshua Palmer	5.40	Javonte Williams	18.80
DEF	Jets	8.42	Jets	8.42

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Ja'Marr Chase, 27.20 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: DeAndre Hopkins scored 36.80; zeroing that score creates a win.

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.10 points left. Optimal 145.46 vs. actual 143.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	20.30	Brock Purdy	20.30
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	36.80	DeAndre Hopkins	36.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	16.00	Stefon Diggs	16.00
RB	Josh Jacobs	16.80	Josh Jacobs	16.80
RB	Chuba Hubbard	7.40	Cam Akers	9.50
TE	T.J. Hockenson	20.80	T.J. Hockenson	20.80
W/R/T	Kendrick Bourne	12.60	Kendrick Bourne	12.60
W/R/T	DJ Moore	9.50	DJ Moore	9.50
DEF	49ers	3.16	49ers	3.16

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 36.80 points (25.7% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	3–5	3.692	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	5–3	5.000	-1.5	-0.115	0 / 1
Kev	5–3	5.077	0.0	0.000	0 / 0
Demich	5–3	4.154	+0.5	+0.038	1 / 0
Krajcik	3–5	3.077	0.0	0.000	1 / 1
Big Hut	3–5	2.385	+4.0	+0.308	2 / 0
Adam	3–5	3.385	+1.0	+0.077	1 / 1
Nevans	4–4	2.538	+3.5	+0.269	1 / 0
Josh	2–6	3.385	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	4–4	5.000	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Fischer	4–4	2.846	+7.0	+0.538	2 / 0
Joe Shore	6–2	6.538	-4.5	-0.346	1 / 2
Niz	5–3	4.385	-0.5	-0.038	2 / 1
Horgan	4–4	4.538	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2

2023 week 8 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Nevans lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Martin lineup

Horgan lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Josh lineup

Niz lineup

Cumulative totals through week 8