2023 week 14 · Luck Factor

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

j-mart

107.64

Rank 10; 0.0 luck points

Fischer

112.17

Rank 9; +1.5 luck points

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.40 points left. Optimal 116.04 vs. actual 107.64.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	33.64	Lamar Jackson	33.64
WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.90	Jaylen Waddle	13.90
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6.50	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6.50
RB	Devin Singletary	12.50	Jamaal Williams	4.30
RB	Joshua Kelley	0.60	Devin Singletary	12.50
TE	Pat Freiermuth	6.80	Pat Freiermuth	6.80
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	4.20	Gerald Everett	8.90
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	18.20	Rashee Rice	18.20
DEF	Cowboys	11.30	Cowboys	11.30

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 33.64 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jake Browning scored 23.70; zeroing that score creates a win.

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 11.62 points left. Optimal 123.79 vs. actual 112.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jake Browning	23.70	Jake Browning	23.70
WR	Jakobi Meyers	7.50	Jakobi Meyers	7.50
WR	Tee Higgins	9.20	Tee Higgins	9.20
RB	Christian McCaffrey	18.30	Christian McCaffrey	18.30
RB	Rachaad White	23.50	Rachaad White	23.50
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	14.70	Kyle Pitts Sr.	14.70
W/R/T	Brevin Jordan	6.50	Rico Dowdle	12.20
W/R/T	Ty Chandler	7.20	Ty Chandler	7.20
DEF	Falcons	1.57	Chiefs	7.49

Carried by One Guy: Jake Browning, 23.70 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

Miller

115.46

Rank 8; +0.5 luck points

Josh

101.31

Rank 12; 0.0 luck points

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 115.46 vs. actual 115.46.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	8.92	Jordan Love	8.92
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	18.60	Brandon Aiyuk	18.60
WR	DeVonta Smith	10.30	DeVonta Smith	10.30
RB	Breece Hall	26.60	Breece Hall	26.60
RB	Tyjae Spears	17.80	Tyjae Spears	17.80
TE	Jake Ferguson	12.20	Jake Ferguson	12.20
W/R/T	Tyreek Hill	10.10	Tyreek Hill	10.10
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	4.70	Jordan Addison	4.70
DEF	Patriots	6.24	Patriots	6.24

Carried by One Guy: Breece Hall, 26.60 points (23.0% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.31 points left. Optimal 101.62 vs. actual 101.31.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	1.84	Justin Herbert	1.84
WR	Calvin Ridley	9.30	Calvin Ridley	9.30
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	5.90	Ja'Marr Chase	5.90
RB	David Montgomery	11.50	David Montgomery	11.50
RB	Jerome Ford	13.20	Jerome Ford	13.20
TE	Isaiah Likely	19.30	Isaiah Likely	19.30
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	10.00	Kareem Hunt	10.00
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	18.10	Javonte Williams	18.10
DEF	Jets	12.17	Browns	12.48

Carried by One Guy: Isaiah Likely, 19.30 points (19.1% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Breece Hall scored 26.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

Krajcik

90.43

Rank 13; +5.5 luck points

Adam

77.54

Rank 14; 0.0 luck points

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.10 points left. Optimal 90.53 vs. actual 90.43.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	9.10	Tua Tagovailoa	9.10
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.50	Michael Pittman Jr.	19.50
WR	Parker Washington	9.96	Parker Washington	9.96
RB	Saquon Barkley	23.10	Saquon Barkley	23.10
RB	Najee Harris	7.80	Najee Harris	7.80
TE	Jonnu Smith	6.70	Jonnu Smith	6.70
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	3.90	Latavius Murray	4.00
W/R/T	Jonathan Mingo	4.20	Jonathan Mingo	4.20
DEF	Colts	6.17	Colts	6.17

Carried by One Guy: Saquon Barkley, 23.10 points (25.5% of positive starter points).

Adam lineup

Tinker Failures: 40.54 points left. Optimal 118.08 vs. actual 77.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Joshua Dobbs	4.62	Matthew Stafford	23.66
WR	Tyler Lockett	14.90	Odell Beckham Jr.	19.70
WR	Josh Downs	6.20	Tyler Lockett	14.90
RB	Jaylen Warren	8.00	Jaylen Warren	8.00
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.20	Jahmyr Gibbs	17.20
TE	Tucker Kraft	10.40	Tucker Kraft	10.40
W/R/T	Justin Jefferson	4.70	Amari Cooper	12.70
W/R/T	Keaton Mitchell	7.20	Keaton Mitchell	7.20
DEF	Packers	4.32	Packers	4.32

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Jahmyr Gibbs, 17.20 points (22.2% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Saquon Barkley scored 23.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

Nevans

127.89

Rank 3; 0.0 luck points

Martin

115.60

Rank 7; -0.5 luck points

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 14.92 points left. Optimal 142.81 vs. actual 127.89.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	C.J. Stroud	3.64	Russell Wilson	15.46
WR	Brandin Cooks	5.70	Brandin Cooks	5.70
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	36.84	Deebo Samuel Sr.	36.84
RB	Joe Mixon	21.50	Joe Mixon	21.50
RB	Bijan Robinson	19.80	Bijan Robinson	19.80
TE	Dalton Kincaid	7.10	Dalton Kincaid	7.10
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.30	Chris Godwin Jr.	10.30
W/R/T	Gus Edwards	1.50	DJ Chark	4.60
DEF	Saints	21.51	Saints	21.51

Carried by One Guy: Deebo Samuel Sr., 36.84 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 2.70 points left. Optimal 118.30 vs. actual 115.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	8.88	Jalen Hurts	8.88
WR	Davante Adams	12.30	Davante Adams	12.30
WR	Courtland Sutton	15.20	Courtland Sutton	15.20
RB	James Cook III	25.10	James Cook III	25.10
RB	De'Von Achane	12.10	De'Von Achane	12.10
TE	Dallas Goedert	7.00	Tyler Conklin	9.70
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	12.40	Adam Thielen	12.40
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	18.10	Derrick Henry	18.10
DEF	Steelers	4.52	Steelers	4.52

Carried by One Guy: James Cook III, 25.10 points (21.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Deebo Samuel Sr. scored 36.84; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

Big Hut

132.65

Rank 2; 0.0 luck points

Joe Shore

106.63

Rank 11; 0.0 luck points

Big Hut lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.40 points left. Optimal 140.05 vs. actual 132.65.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Dak Prescott	17.94	Dak Prescott	17.94
WR	Diontae Johnson	14.70	Diontae Johnson	14.70
WR	Zay Flowers	20.00	Zay Flowers	20.00
RB	Raheem Mostert	23.00	Raheem Mostert	23.00
RB	Tony Pollard	16.60	Tony Pollard	16.60
TE	Cole Kmet	11.60	Cole Kmet	11.60
W/R/T	Khalil Shakir	2.20	Cade Otton	9.60
W/R/T	Jayden Reed	20.64	Jayden Reed	20.64
DEF	Jaguars	5.97	Jaguars	5.97

Carried by One Guy: Raheem Mostert, 23.00 points (17.3% of positive starter points).

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 37.80 points left. Optimal 144.43 vs. actual 106.63.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	13.64	Patrick Mahomes	13.64
WR	Mike Evans	1.80	DK Metcalf	13.20
WR	DK Metcalf	13.20	Chris Olave	12.80
RB	Alvin Kamara	13.50	Alvin Kamara	13.50
RB	Austin Ekeler	21.00	Austin Ekeler	21.00
TE	Sam LaPorta	4.70	David Njoku	27.10
W/R/T	Chris Olave	12.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	17.20
W/R/T	Puka Nacua	14.00	Puka Nacua	14.00
DEF	Dolphins	11.99	Dolphins	11.99

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Austin Ekeler, 21.00 points (19.7% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

Kev

138.36

Rank 1; 0.0 luck points

Niz

126.91

Rank 4; -3.5 luck points

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.50 points left. Optimal 141.86 vs. actual 138.36.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	20.06	Baker Mayfield	20.06
WR	Cooper Kupp	27.50	Keenan Allen	12.80
WR	Nico Collins	2.30	Cooper Kupp	27.50
RB	Alexander Mattison	6.60	Alexander Mattison	6.60
RB	Kyren Williams	16.30	Kyren Williams	16.30
TE	Travis Kelce	14.30	Travis Kelce	14.30
W/R/T	Keenan Allen	12.80	Drake London	31.20
W/R/T	Drake London	31.20	Zach Charbonnet	5.80
DEF	Ravens	7.30	Ravens	7.30

Carried by One Guy: Drake London, 31.20 points (22.5% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 30.70 points left. Optimal 157.61 vs. actual 126.91.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	23.42	Brock Purdy	23.42
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	27.40	DeAndre Hopkins	27.40
WR	Stefon Diggs	6.40	Josh Reynolds	13.40
RB	Josh Jacobs	7.00	Josh Jacobs	7.00
RB	Chuba Hubbard	11.60	Chuba Hubbard	11.60
TE	T.J. Hockenson	10.30	T.J. Hockenson	10.30
W/R/T	DJ Moore	26.80	Ezekiel Elliott	27.00
W/R/T	Jalin Hyatt	3.30	DJ Moore	26.80
DEF	49ers	10.69	49ers	10.69

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: DeAndre Hopkins, 27.40 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Drake London scored 31.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Regular

Dec 5 – 11, 2023

Demich

117.76

Rank 6; -1.5 luck points

Horgan

123.01

Rank 5; 0.0 luck points

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.30 points left. Optimal 130.06 vs. actual 117.76.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	24.72	Justin Fields	24.72
WR	A.J. Brown	16.40	A.J. Brown	16.40
WR	CeeDee Lamb	19.10	CeeDee Lamb	19.10
RB	Jerick McKinnon	12.70	Jerick McKinnon	12.70
RB	Kenneth Walker	9.40	Kenneth Walker	9.40
TE	George Kittle	16.60	George Kittle	16.60
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	7.20	Elijah Moore	7.20
W/R/T	Romeo Doubs	7.20	Chase Brown	19.50
DEF	Chargers	4.44	Chargers	4.44

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Justin Fields, 24.72 points (21.0% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Evan Engram scored 32.50; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.50 points left. Optimal 135.51 vs. actual 123.01.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	20.52	Josh Allen	20.52
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	5.10	Amon-Ra St. Brown	5.10
WR	Garrett Wilson	22.10	Garrett Wilson	22.10
RB	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	8.80	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	8.80
RB	Zack Moss	9.60	Zack Moss	9.60
TE	Evan Engram	32.50	Evan Engram	32.50
W/R/T	Noah Brown	0.00	D'Onta Foreman	9.20
W/R/T	Jerry Jeudy	3.60	George Pickens	6.90
DEF	Vikings	20.79	Vikings	20.79

Carried by One Guy: Evan Engram, 32.50 points (26.4% of positive starter points).

Manager	Record	Expected wins	Luck points	Luck in wins	Lucky / unlucky
j-mart	6–8	6.692	-3.5	-0.269	1 / 2
Miller	9–5	8.923	-1.5	-0.115	1 / 2
Kev	7–7	8.769	-3.5	-0.269	0 / 1
Demich	6–8	7.231	-5.0	-0.385	1 / 3
Krajcik	6–8	5.000	+10.0	+0.769	3 / 1
Big Hut	5–9	5.077	-1.0	-0.077	3 / 1
Adam	5–9	4.846	+4.5	+0.346	2 / 1
Nevans	9–5	6.615	+3.5	+0.269	2 / 1
Josh	5–9	6.231	-6.0	-0.462	0 / 2
Martin	6–8	7.846	-9.5	-0.731	1 / 4
Fischer	7–7	4.846	+10.0	+0.769	5 / 1
Joe Shore	10–4	10.308	-5.5	-0.423	2 / 3
Niz	9–5	8.615	-4.0	-0.308	2 / 2
Horgan	8–6	7.000	-2.5	-0.192	3 / 2

2023 week 14 matchups

Robbery of the Week

Get Out of Jail Free

Matchups

Regular

j-mart lineup

Fischer lineup

Regular

Miller lineup

Josh lineup

Regular

Krajcik lineup

Adam lineup

Regular

Nevans lineup

Martin lineup

Regular

Big Hut lineup

Joe Shore lineup

Regular

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Regular

Demich lineup

Horgan lineup

Cumulative totals through week 14