2023 week 17 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 26, 2023 – Jan 1, 2024

j-mart

122.44

Martin

123.20

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 7.70 points left. Optimal 130.14 vs. actual 122.44.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	38.34	Lamar Jackson	38.34
WR	Jaylen Waddle	0.00	Alec Pierce	12.80
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	8.20
RB	Devin Singletary	11.60	Devin Singletary	11.60
RB	Jonathan Taylor	17.40	Jonathan Taylor	17.40
TE	Pat Freiermuth	7.40	Pat Freiermuth	7.40
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	12.80	Gerald Everett	7.70
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	19.70	Rashee Rice	19.70
DEF	Cowboys	7.00	Cowboys	7.00

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Lamar Jackson, 38.34 points (31.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Davante Adams scored 39.60; zeroing that score creates a win.

Martin lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.80 points left. Optimal 144.00 vs. actual 123.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jalen Hurts	19.18	Jalen Hurts	19.18
WR	Davante Adams	39.60	Davante Adams	39.60
WR	Courtland Sutton	0.00	Michael Wilson	15.50
RB	James Cook III	5.40	James Cook III	5.40
RB	De'Von Achane	25.70	De'Von Achane	25.70
TE	Dallas Goedert	15.70	Dallas Goedert	15.70
W/R/T	Adam Thielen	9.80	Adam Thielen	9.80
W/R/T	Derrick Henry	4.20	Tyler Conklin	9.50
DEF	Steelers	3.62	Steelers	3.62

Carried by One Guy: Davante Adams, 39.60 points (32.1% of positive starter points).

Consolation

Dec 26, 2023 – Jan 1, 2024

Demich

141.10

Fischer

66.45

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 21.54 points left. Optimal 162.64 vs. actual 141.10.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	25.22	Justin Fields	25.22
WR	A.J. Brown	9.30	A.J. Brown	9.30
WR	CeeDee Lamb	42.20	CeeDee Lamb	42.20
RB	James Conner	28.30	James Conner	28.30
RB	Kenneth Walker	16.50	Kenneth Walker	16.50
TE	George Kittle	5.90	George Kittle	5.90
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	4.76	Elijah Moore	17.10
W/R/T	Chase Brown	4.80	Elijah Mitchell	14.00
DEF	Chargers	4.12	Chargers	4.12

Carried by One Guy: CeeDee Lamb, 42.20 points (29.9% of positive starter points).

Fischer lineup

Tinker Failures: 20.00 points left. Optimal 86.45 vs. actual 66.45.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jake Browning	21.08	Jake Browning	21.08
WR	Jakobi Meyers	11.60	Jakobi Meyers	11.60
WR	Tee Higgins	2.90	Tee Higgins	2.90
RB	Christian McCaffrey	13.10	Christian McCaffrey	13.10
RB	Rachaad White	8.60	Rachaad White	8.60
TE	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.50	Kyle Pitts Sr.	1.50
W/R/T	Jahan Dotson	0.00	Brevin Jordan	9.90
W/R/T	Ty Chandler	9.40	Ty Chandler	9.40
DEF	Falcons	-1.73	Chiefs	8.37

Carried by One Guy: Jake Browning, 21.08 points (30.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 26, 2023 – Jan 1, 2024

Miller

134.77

Kev

133.17

Miller lineup

Tinker Failures: 12.60 points left. Optimal 147.37 vs. actual 134.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Jordan Love	28.44	Jordan Love	28.44
WR	Tyreek Hill	13.60	Tyreek Hill	13.60
WR	Brandon Aiyuk	26.40	Brandon Aiyuk	26.40
RB	Breece Hall	27.60	Breece Hall	27.60
RB	Tyjae Spears	6.90	Tyjae Spears	6.90
TE	Jake Ferguson	7.30	Jake Ferguson	7.30
W/R/T	DeVonta Smith	6.00	Jameson Williams	9.50
W/R/T	Jordan Addison	5.80	Roschon Johnson	14.90
DEF	Bears	12.73	Bears	12.73

Carried by One Guy: Jordan Love, 28.44 points (21.1% of positive starter points).

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 25.74 points left. Optimal 158.91 vs. actual 133.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Baker Mayfield	18.26	Kyler Murray	23.68
WR	Tyler Boyd	4.90	Cooper Kupp	12.70
WR	Cooper Kupp	12.70	Nico Collins	15.70
RB	Tyler Allgeier	15.80	Tyler Allgeier	15.80
RB	Kyren Williams	30.10	Kyren Williams	30.10
TE	Travis Kelce	4.60	Travis Kelce	4.60
W/R/T	Nico Collins	15.70	Justice Hill	25.22
W/R/T	Drake London	9.60	Drake London	9.60
DEF	Texans	21.51	Texans	21.51

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Kyren Williams, 30.10 points (22.6% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Jordan Love scored 28.44; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 26, 2023 – Jan 1, 2024

Joe Shore

133.60

Horgan

135.56

Joe Shore lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.00 points left. Optimal 150.60 vs. actual 133.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Patrick Mahomes	12.00	Patrick Mahomes	12.00
WR	Mike Evans	10.00	Demarcus Robinson	13.20
WR	Puka Nacua	20.70	Puka Nacua	20.70
RB	Alvin Kamara	6.90	Alvin Kamara	6.90
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	27.80	Travis Etienne Jr.	27.80
TE	Sam LaPorta	15.40	Sam LaPorta	15.40
W/R/T	DK Metcalf	17.60	David Njoku	19.40
W/R/T	Chris Olave	5.60	DK Metcalf	17.60
DEF	Bills	17.60	Bills	17.60

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Travis Etienne Jr., 27.80 points (20.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Khalil Herbert scored 22.90; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 6.60 points left. Optimal 142.16 vs. actual 135.56.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	21.16	Josh Allen	21.16
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	22.10	Amon-Ra St. Brown	22.10
WR	Garrett Wilson	9.90	Garrett Wilson	9.90
RB	Khalil Herbert	22.90	Khalil Herbert	22.90
RB	Zamir White	15.60	Zamir White	15.60
TE	Evan Engram	12.00	Evan Engram	12.00
W/R/T	Noah Brown	1.80	Jerry Jeudy	8.40
W/R/T	George Pickens	22.10	George Pickens	22.10
DEF	Rams	8.00	Rams	8.00

Carried by One Guy: Khalil Herbert, 22.90 points (16.9% of positive starter points).

2023 week 17 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Martin lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Fischer lineup

Playoff

Miller lineup

Kev lineup

Playoff

Joe Shore lineup

Horgan lineup