2023 week 15 · Luck Factor

Consolation

Dec 12 – 18, 2023

j-mart

118.77

Krajcik

64.54

j-mart lineup

Tinker Failures: 8.60 points left. Optimal 127.37 vs. actual 118.77.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Lamar Jackson	18.54	Lamar Jackson	18.54
WR	Jaylen Waddle	30.20	Jaylen Waddle	30.20
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	14.80	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	14.80
RB	Devin Singletary	23.00	Jamaal Williams	3.60
RB	Joshua Kelley	1.80	Devin Singletary	23.00
TE	Pat Freiermuth	4.60	Pat Freiermuth	4.60
W/R/T	Alec Pierce	2.30	Gerald Everett	9.10
W/R/T	Rashee Rice	24.10	Rashee Rice	24.10
DEF	Cowboys	-0.57	Cowboys	-0.57

Carried by One Guy: Jaylen Waddle, 30.20 points (25.3% of positive starter points).

Krajcik lineup

Tinker Failures: 17.40 points left. Optimal 81.94 vs. actual 64.54.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Tua Tagovailoa	12.96	Tua Tagovailoa	12.96
WR	Hollywood Brown	0.00	Michael Pittman Jr.	11.80
WR	Michael Pittman Jr.	11.80	Parker Washington	5.20
RB	Saquon Barkley	5.70	Latavius Murray	7.10
RB	Najee Harris	1.30	Saquon Barkley	5.70
TE	Logan Thomas	1.70	Jonnu Smith	8.10
W/R/T	D'Andre Swift	9.50	D'Andre Swift	9.50
W/R/T	Jonathan Mingo	7.20	Jonathan Mingo	7.20
DEF	Colts	14.38	Colts	14.38

Carried by One Guy: Colts, 14.38 points (22.3% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Consolation

Dec 12 – 18, 2023

Demich

91.20

Josh

62.60

Demich lineup

Tinker Failures: 15.00 points left. Optimal 106.20 vs. actual 91.20.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Fields	9.64	Justin Fields	9.64
WR	A.J. Brown	10.60	A.J. Brown	10.60
WR	CeeDee Lamb	18.60	CeeDee Lamb	18.60
RB	Jerick McKinnon	16.16	Jerick McKinnon	16.16
RB	Kenneth Walker	20.20	Kenneth Walker	20.20
TE	George Kittle	7.40	George Kittle	7.40
W/R/T	Elijah Moore	3.70	James Conner	17.90
W/R/T	Rashid Shaheed	7.30	Chase Brown	8.10
DEF	Chargers	-2.40	Chargers	-2.40

Carried by One Guy: Kenneth Walker, 20.20 points (21.6% of positive starter points).

Josh lineup

Tinker Failures: 38.48 points left. Optimal 101.08 vs. actual 62.60.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Justin Herbert	0.00	Justin Herbert	0.00
WR	Calvin Ridley	8.90	Calvin Ridley	8.90
WR	Ja'Marr Chase	10.40	Ja'Marr Chase	10.40
RB	David Montgomery	10.20	David Montgomery	10.20
RB	Jerome Ford	7.10	Jerome Ford	7.10
TE	Isaiah Likely	18.00	Isaiah Likely	18.00
W/R/T	Kareem Hunt	3.00	Aaron Jones Sr.	10.90
W/R/T	Javonte Williams	4.00	Trey McBride	22.20
DEF	Jets	1.00	Browns	13.38

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Isaiah Likely, 18.00 points (28.8% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: No single-player result flip.

Playoff

Dec 12 – 18, 2023

Kev

127.17

Niz

103.00

Kev lineup

Tinker Failures: 0.00 points left. Optimal 127.17 vs. actual 127.17.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Kyler Murray	13.34	Kyler Murray	13.34
WR	Cooper Kupp	27.10	Cooper Kupp	27.10
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson	6.50	Wan'Dale Robinson	6.50
RB	Tyler Allgeier	6.10	Tyler Allgeier	6.10
RB	Kyren Williams	26.50	Kyren Williams	26.50
TE	Travis Kelce	7.80	Travis Kelce	7.80
W/R/T	Zay Jones	10.90	Zay Jones	10.90
W/R/T	Drake London	4.40	Drake London	4.40
DEF	Dolphins	24.53	Dolphins	24.53

Carried by One Guy: Cooper Kupp, 27.10 points (21.3% of positive starter points).

Niz lineup

Tinker Failures: 3.50 points left. Optimal 106.50 vs. actual 103.00.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Brock Purdy	25.68	Brock Purdy	25.68
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	4.10	Stefon Diggs	8.80
WR	Stefon Diggs	8.80	DJ Moore	9.20
RB	Ezekiel Elliott	9.60	Ezekiel Elliott	9.60
RB	Chuba Hubbard	12.30	Chuba Hubbard	12.30
TE	T.J. Hockenson	12.30	T.J. Hockenson	12.30
W/R/T	DJ Moore	9.20	Tyler Higbee	7.60
W/R/T	Dalton Schultz	9.80	Dalton Schultz	9.80
DEF	49ers	11.22	49ers	11.22

Carried by One Guy: Brock Purdy, 25.68 points (24.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Cooper Kupp scored 27.10; zeroing that score creates a win.

Playoff

Dec 12 – 18, 2023

Nevans

122.83

Horgan

129.85

Nevans lineup

Tinker Failures: 18.90 points left. Optimal 141.73 vs. actual 122.83.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Drew Lock	12.12	Russell Wilson	17.52
WR	Brandin Cooks	3.00	Brandin Cooks	3.00
WR	Deebo Samuel Sr.	21.90	Deebo Samuel Sr.	21.90
RB	Joe Mixon	15.10	Joe Mixon	15.10
RB	Bijan Robinson	0.40	Gus Edwards	13.90
TE	Dalton Kincaid	0.00	Dalton Kincaid	0.00
W/R/T	Chris Godwin Jr.	27.50	Chris Godwin Jr.	27.50
W/R/T	Terry McLaurin	28.10	Terry McLaurin	28.10
DEF	Saints	14.71	Saints	14.71

Avoidable loss: the best full lineup would have tied or won.

Carried by One Guy: Terry McLaurin, 28.10 points (22.9% of positive starter points).

Opponent's Final Boss: Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 26.20; zeroing that score creates a win.

Horgan lineup

Tinker Failures: 27.30 points left. Optimal 157.15 vs. actual 129.85.

Slot	Actual	Pts	Optimal	Pts
QB	Josh Allen	16.16	Josh Allen	16.16
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown	26.20	Noah Brown	22.20
WR	Garrett Wilson	5.90	Amon-Ra St. Brown	26.20
RB	Zack Moss	12.30	Zack Moss	12.30
RB	Zamir White	17.50	Zamir White	17.50
TE	Evan Engram	6.80	Evan Engram	6.80
W/R/T	D'Onta Foreman	-0.60	Jerry Jeudy	10.40
W/R/T	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	20.10	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	20.10
DEF	Raiders	25.49	Raiders	25.49

Carried by One Guy: Amon-Ra St. Brown, 26.20 points (20.1% of positive starter points).

2023 week 15 matchups

Matchups

Consolation

j-mart lineup

Krajcik lineup

Consolation

Demich lineup

Josh lineup

Playoff

Kev lineup

Niz lineup

Playoff

Nevans lineup

Horgan lineup